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U.S. Stocks, Bonds Rise as Health Bill Captivates

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Global Sell off - Investors King
  • U.S. Stocks, Bonds Rise as Health Bill Captivates

U.S. stocks pared the worst weekly drop of the year, while Treasuries and the dollar continued to churn in a tight range as investors watched developments in Washington to gauge the prospects for the Trump administration’s legislative agenda. Oil rose for the first time this week.

The S&P 500 Index advanced as the White House doubled down on its demand that House Republicans vote Friday on the health-care bill without further changes. Technology shares paced gains. The yield on 10-year Treasury held near 2.41 percent, while the dollar churned in a tight range. The yen halted its longest rally since 2011. Oil gained as OPEC members prepared to meet for a review of production cuts.

“No one has any idea what’s going to happen with this vote so they are sitting there waiting for actual information rather than theory,” said Ben Kumar, a London-based investment manager at Seven Investment Management, which oversees about 10 billion pounds ($12 billion). “In general you can ignore the politics and trade on the underlying fundamentals. The market is still fundamentally intact.”

Reflation trades sparked by Trump’s election have faltered in March as the administration remains far from delivering on pro-growth policies that boosted stocks and the dollar. The White House demanded a vote Friday and threatened to move on to other policy priorities, including tax reform.

Here are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 percent to 2,352.67 at 10:36 a.m. in new York. The index is down 1.1 percent in the five days, poised for its worst week of the year.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent, trimming the previous day’s brisk gains. Aegon NV weighed down insurers after it cut its Solvency II ratio.
  • Japan’s Topix trimmed some losses for a week that included the biggest one-day drop since Trump’s election. The index finished with a 1.4 percent decline for the week. The MSCI Asia Pacific fared better, with a 0.1 percent decrease.

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Index was little changed as it heads for a weekly slide of 0.6 percent. The measure Thursday eked out a gain to snap a six-day losing streak.
  • The British pound weakened 0.3 percent to $1.2479, while the euro added 0.1 percent to $1.0797.
  • The Mexican peso has rallied about 9 percent versus the dollar this year, setting up for the best first quarter performance in more than two decades.

Bonds

  • U.S. Treasuries were little changed after erasing overnight declines. Yields were within a basis point of Thursday’s closing level.
  • Ten-year yields remained pinned between the average price over the past 50 days and the 100-day moving average for a third straight day.
  • European bonds shrugged off stronger-than-expected purchasing managers data out of Germany and France. French 10-year yields dropped four basis points to 1.001 percent.
  • The yield on bund benchmarks fell two basis points to 0.413 percent.

Commodities

  • Crude prices headed for a weekly loss as OPEC and its market allies prepared to review cuts, while rising U.S. inventories indicated the measures aren’t working yet.
  • West Texas Intermediate fell 0.2 percent Friday to $47.63 a barrel, pushing the weekly loss to 2.5 percent.
  • Gold futures were little changed at $1,250.90, holding the week’s gain at 1.4 percent.
  • Iron ore futures in China posted an unprecedented weekly loss; the most-active contract in Singapore is lower for a sixth day; and spot prices had the biggest slump since November.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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