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Nigeria’s Economy Contracts 1.51% in 2016

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General Economy In Nigeria's Capital
  • Nigeria’s Economy Contracts 1.51% in 2016

The Nigerian economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2016 for the fourth consecutive quarters. However, the rate of contraction has started reducing following the Federal Government efforts at bolstering economic activities.

The economy contracted 1.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 to N18,292.95 billion, from N18,533.75 billion recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report released on Tuesday.

This was -2.24 percent less than the decline recorded in the previous quarter but lower than the 2.11 percent growth rate recorded in the final quarter of 2015.

On a quarterly basis, real GDP rose 4.09 percent following rise in the general price level.

However, on a yearly basis, the economy contracted 1.51 percent, indicating real GDP of N67,984.20 billion for 2016. This reduction in the economic activities reflects weaker inflation-induced consumption demand, an increase in pipeline vandalism, significantly reduced foreign reserves and a weaker currency.

Also, it showed series of problems in the energy sector – lower electricity generation and struggling banking sector.

Oil Sector

According to the NBS, Oil output was estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the fourth quarter of 2016. Which was about 0.27 million barrels per day higher than output in the previous quarter, but lower than production in the same quarter of 2015 by 0.25 million barrels per day, when output was recorded at 2.16 mbpd.

“For the full year 2016, oil production was estimated to be 1.833 mbpd, compared to 2.13 mbpd in 2015. This reduction has largely been attributed to vandalism in the Niger Delta region. As a result, the sector contracted by -13.65 percent; a more significant decline than that in 2015 of -5.45 percent. This reduced the oil sectors share of real GDP to 8.42 percent in 2016, compared to 9.61% in 2015.

“In the fourth quarter of 2016 this sector declined by -12.38 percent in real term (year-on-year). This was an improvement relative to the previous quarter, when the sector declined by -22.01 percent, but nevertheless was a more severe decline than in the fourth quarter of 2015, when a contraction of -8.23 percent was recorded.

“Quarter-on-Quarter, real oil GDP grew 8.07 percent. As a share of the economy, the Oil sector represented 7.15% of total real GDP, compared to 8.06 percent in Q4 2015 and 8.19 percent in Q3 2016.”

Non-oil Sector

“The non-oil sector declined by -0.33 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2016. This was 0.36 percent points lower than growth of 0.03 percent recorded in Q3 2016, and 3.46 percent points lower than the 3.14 percent growth recorded in Q4 2015. Given that the growth rate was stronger than in the oil sector, the non-oil sector increased its share of GDP to 92.85 percent, from 91.94 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“The sector to weigh on non-oil growth the most was Real Estate, which declined by -9.27 percent and contributed to –0.77 percent points to year on year growth in total real GDP. However, Manufacturing, Construction and Trade also made significant downwards contributions, ameliorated slightly by continuing strong growth in Agriculture (especially Crop Production).

“For full year 2016, the non-oil sector declined by -0.22 percent in real terms, compared to a growth rate of 3.75 percent in 2015, a difference of 3.97 percent points.”

The figures showed the pace of contraction has started cooling from the third quarter of 2016 and on track for economic recovery by the second quarter of 2017.

GDP

Similarly, for the past 4 months, the pace of increase of inflation rate has been reducing, indicating consumer prices are beginning to adjust to a series of policy been implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria. This further validated CBN projection that economic recovery plan would start manifesting by the second quarter of 2017 following successful OPEC consensus in November 2016.

The Naira has gained N95 against the US dollar since the CBN introduced new forex policy last week and continued to do so as importers can now access dollar at a moderate exchange rate. Experts have said the continuous gain in the Naira value will curb surge in consumer prices and boost activities in the manufacturing sector.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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