Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook February 27 – March 3

Published

7 years ago

February 26, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook February 27 – March 3

The US dollar remained volatile even as economic data showed the labor market is strong and inflation rate is close to the Federal Reserves’ 2 percent target. Accordingly, experts have attributed last week dollar’s weakness to President Trump’s comment after saying on Thursday that the US dollar is too strong and that he will push for a weaker currency.

However, the euro-area currency is predicted to fall below parity against the US dollar this year, as central bank policies continue to differ.

Business confidence in the region has plunged in recent weeks amid lower than the expected growth rate, while Greece’s financial crisis once again threaten to break the Union apart.

The European Central Bank is therefore expected to go on with its huge quantitative easing programme, keeping the euro weak.

The growing popularity of France’s anti-Brussels candidate Marine Le Pen and her pledge to call a Frexit referendum should she win the election could also push investors to sell-off the currency.

Overall, the US dollar remained strong but uncertainty cloud its short-term outlook, while the Euro-area is yet to resolve Greece issue and face possible Frexit as it awaits both French election and official triggering of the Brexit process in March. The single currency is expected to dip further against the US dollar as traders and investors are likely to sell off the currency ahead of France election in April.

This week, EURJPY, GBPUSD and NZDJPY top my list.

EURJPY

The Euro single currency is facing low sentiment amid the political uprising in the Euro-area. While on the other hand, the Japanese yen remained a haven asset and likely to remain attractive as investors scramble to avert uncertain in both the US and Europe.

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Another reason why this pair is a good sell, after this pair dropped to 109.22 record-low on 19th, June 2016. It has failed to break out of post-Brexit high (124.08) since then and seems to have established a range between 124.18 and 111.96 price levels. But with the renewed sell-off of the euro single currency, we could see this pair plunging to 115.27 support levels.

Therefore, this week I am bearish on EURJPY as long as price remains below 119.86, 20-day moving average. I will be looking to see below 118.55 for 115.27 targets, a break of that level could give us 111.96 support, target 2.

Last Week Recap

GBPUSD

Last week, GBPUSD broke loose after President Trump comments on Thursday, however, the pair has gained back almost everything it lost due to that comment. This week, I remain bearish on this pair as the Brexit condition and the Euro-area financial issues deepened ahead of March Brexit date.

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While the US uncertainty continued to impact dollar strength, the weakness revealed in the UK consumer spending and the cooling job market is likely to reinforce sellers’ interest ahead of official Brexit in March.

NZDJPY

This pair dropped 51 pips last week but below our projection. However, it closed below 81.02 resistance levels. This week, I remain bearish on NZDJPY and will be looking to add to my position below 79.92.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 19th, 2024

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

24 hours ago

April 19, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,020 and sell it at N1,010 on Thursday, April 18th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,100
Selling Rate: N1,090

Naira

Naira’s Recent Gain Reflects Policy Direction, Says CBN Chief Olayemi Cardoso

Published

2 days ago

April 18, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has explained that the recent surge in the Naira is a testament to the positive direction of government policies rather than active intervention to defend the currency’s value.

Addressing attendees at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Governor Cardoso underscored that the CBN’s intention is not to artificially prop up the Naira.

He clarified that the fluctuations observed in the country’s foreign exchange reserves were not aimed at defending the currency but rather aligning with broader economic goals.

Over the past month, the Naira has experienced a notable uptick in value against the dollar, signaling a reversal from previous declines. Data from Bloomberg reveals a 6.4% decrease in liquid reserves since March 18, coinciding with the Naira’s rebound.

Despite this decline, Cardoso pointed out that around $600 million had flowed into the reserves in the past two days, reflecting confidence in the Nigerian market.

Governor Cardoso articulated the CBN’s vision of a market-driven exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates through willing buyers and sellers.

He expressed optimism about a future where the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market would be minimal, except in extraordinary circumstances.

The recent resilience of the Naira follows a period of volatility earlier in the year, marked by a substantial devaluation in January. Since then, the CBN has implemented measures to stabilize the currency, including monetary tightening and initiatives to enhance dollar liquidity.

Cardoso highlighted the transformation in market sentiment, noting that investors now perceive Nigeria’s central bank as committed to stabilizing inflation and fostering economic stability.

As Nigeria continues its journey toward economic recovery and stability, Cardoso’s remarks provide insight into the central bank’s strategy and its impact on the country’s currency dynamics.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 18th, 2024

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 18, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,050 and sell it at N1,040 on Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.