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Inflation Picks up to Multi-year Highs in China as Cbank Eyes Tighter Policy

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  • Inflation Picks up to Multi-year Highs in China as Cbank Eyes Tighter Policy

China consumer inflation also rose more than expected, nearing a three-year high as fuel and food prices jumped, data showed on Tuesday.

Much of the pick up in consumer prices was likely due to higher food and travel costs heading into the long Lunar New Year holiday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

But mounting price pressures in China and many other countries have sparked talk of tighter monetary policy this year, after years of super-loose settings aimed at reviving economic growth.

China’s central bank raised short-term interest rates in recent weeks as it looks to contain risks from an explosive growth in debt, while India’s central bank last week unexpectedly signaled an end to its longest easing cycle since the global financial crisis, citing inflation risks.

Some analysts, however, believe the ramp up in price pressures in China may be short-lived, noting that a jump in January food prices was likely seasonal and that producer price gains slowed by half on a month-on-month basis.

“We don’t expect such high rates of inflation to last,” Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said in a note.

“Tighter monetary policy, slowing income growth and cooling property prices should keep broader price pressure contained over the medium-term,” he added, noting that weak prices early last year may have exaggerated the strength of a reflationary trend seen in recent months.

Consumer inflation quickened to 2.5 percent in January from a year earlier, the highest since May 2014.

But it is still well within the government’s comfort zone of 3 percent, and is showing few signs yet that the jump in producer prices is filtering through to the broader economy, analysts say.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the consumer price index (CPI) would rise 2.4 percent, after a 2.1 percent gain in December.

Food prices, the biggest component of CPI, rose 2.7 percent in January, led by a 7.1 percent increase in the price of pork.

Fuel costs surged 16.5 percent on-year, the biggest increase among CPI components, likely due to a low comparison in the year-ago period when fuel prices fell.

Capital Economics expects consumer prices to rise only 2.0 percent this year.

Producer price inflation accelerated to 6.9 percent — the fastest since August 2011 — from December’s rise of 5.5 percent.

Gains in the producer price index (PPI) were driven by a 31.0 percent increase in mining costs as coal prices rise, the biggest jump in that category since early 2010.

The market had expected producer prices to rise 6.3 percent on an annual basis.

But on a monthly basis, they only rose 0.8 percent, down from December’s 1.6 percent gain.

China’s massive imports of coal, crude oil, iron ore and industrial materials have helped fuel a sharp rebound in global resources prices in recent months, boosting profits for producers and processors.

Iron ore futures in China rose for a sixth session in a row on Tuesday, hitting their highest in more than three years, while London copper futures have climbed to around 20-month highs.

Price gains in China have been further amplified by government efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity.

Investors are cashing in on the global reflationary trade. Shares of Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd (600362.SS)(0358.HK), China’s biggest integrated copper producer, have surged over 60 percent in the past year in Shanghai and 85 percent in Hong Kong.

But heady increases in China’s commodity futures market, especially for iron ore, metal reinforcing bars and coking coal used in steel production, have added to policymakers’ worries about speculative price bubbles.

Worries about speculation and debt risks led the central bank to move to a tightening bias in recent months, not inflation, analysts say.

“Inflation is not the main driver of monetary policy at the moment…I do think they are going to tighten more this year, but the main driver is credit risk and concerns of leverage and what’s going on in the property market,” said Capital Economics’ Evans-Pritchard.

Banks in some big Chinese cities have started to reduce discounts on mortgage rates for first-time home buyers, newspapers have reported, joining recent steps to curb financial risks stemming from years of loose credit conditions.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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