Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook February 6-10

Published

7 years ago

February 5, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook February 6-10

The US economy remains strong after data from the labor department showed the economy added 227,000 jobs in January. More than 157,000 jobs created in December. But the average hourly earnings drop to 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent year-on year, suggesting that the inflation rate may not be advancing as previously thought. Therefore, the Fed won’t be in rush to hike rates, at least not this March. This is one of the reasons the US dollar lost momentum against most of its counterparts except the British Pound last week.

Accordingly, the productivity level cooled in the fourth quarter to 1.3 percent from 3.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. This further affirm that businesses have relied on more hiring rather than investing in technology to increase efficiency. Still, the services sector expanded (56.5) in January at about the same pace as in the previous month.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the new government policies – fiscal spending, immigration, tax, etc. continued to weigh on the business outlook and dollar strength as businesses and foreign investors are yet to ascertain market direction.

In the U.K, the services sector contracted in January to 54.5 from 56.2 recorded in December as the costs of running a business surged to a 6-year high. The main concern now is the extent to which costs are rising and if it’s temporary or part of the issues raised by Governor Mark Carney on Thursday that there were risks to the economic outlook as the country start its Brexit journey.

Although the U.K. Monetary policy Committee upgraded its economic growth rate for 2017 from 1.4 percent to 2 percent, the governor reiterated that there are risks ahead and that the positive outlook does not negate Brexit consequences.

“The Brexit journey is really just beginning — while the direction of travel is clear, there will be twists and turns along the way,” the BOE governor Mark Carney told a press conference in London on Thursday. He said that with inflation accelerating and risks to growth on the horizon, “we can see scenarios in either direction” for policy.

With uncertainty growing from the US to the Europe, it is clear that commodities like gold and safe haven assets in general remain attractive as investors look to reduce risk exposure while looking for clues as to what the US and Theresa May led Brexit team plan to achieve going forward.

This week USDJPY and GBPJPY top my last for the reason stated above.

USDJPY

I first mentioned this pair sell potential three weeks ago, but rebounded with 78 pips to our first target to hit a mid-term high of 115.60. Ever since it has lost about 332 pips in the last three weeks.

However, with rising uncertainty in the US, investors are likely to continue to jump on safe haven assets like the yen to avoid the US dollar volatility. Hence, this pair is likely to continue its downward trend this week.

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A break of 111.81 support would possibly increase the attractiveness of this pair and open up 109.56 support levels first established in April 2016, which is below 20-day moving average. Below is my previous quote on this pair.

This pair called the top after gaining about 1,384 pips since the emergence of Trump as the president of the U.S. But the pair lost about 250 pips following Trump’s first public conference last week to close at 114.43 support level. This, I will be treating as a risk concern ahead of the new administration’s inauguration. Therefore, I will be expecting the demand for the yen as a safe haven asset to increase while investors await a series of change the president-elect will be passing on to the senate and the ones likely to be approved.

GBPJPY

Three weeks ago, I mentioned here the uncertainty surrounding the British pound and why this pair offer unique sell opportunity. But with the pound sterling uncertainty confirmed by BOE unclear as the UK commence its Brexit journey, the embattled currency remains less attractive and it is likely to get worse by March, 2017 when the Brexit will be officially triggered.

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While on the other hand, the yen remained attractive as investors scramble for the haven asset to reduce risk exposure and avoid volatility.

Again, the weekly candlestick closed as a bearish engulfed pattern, which was below 142.42 support levels –now resistance. With the present yen attractiveness, I will be looking to sell the pair below 142.42 resistance levels this week for 134.90 targets. A break of that level should open up 129.85 as the second target.

Last Week Recap

EURCAD

This week, I remain bearish on this pair for two reasons. One, the surge in risk level in the Euro-area will continue to weigh on euro-single currency. While Canadian dollar will likely remain attractive as commodities like crude oil gain and increase in investments in the country boost its manufacturing sector amid Trump likely favoured trade policy.

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EURGBP

This pair lost its gains after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney statement alerting investors to potential risk ahead of Brexit. Hence I will be standing aside this week to monitor price action and comments from the UK policy makers.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

17 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.