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U.S. Economic Growth Cools on Biggest Trade Drag Since 2010

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  • U.S. Economic Growth Cools on Biggest Trade Drag Since 2010

U.S. economic growth slowed more than forecast last quarter on the biggest drag from trade in six years and more moderate consumer spending. Business investment picked up, which may be a harbinger for faster expansion in 2017.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 1.9 percent annualized rate following the prior quarter’s 3.5 percent gain, Commerce Department data showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast  called for 2.2 percent. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose 2.5 percent, in line with projections.

The results cap growth of 1.9 percent for the full year — near the average pace of the current expansion — and reinforce the leading role of household purchases while showing that businesses are starting to spend again. The strong job market and optimism among consumers and companies for President Donald Trump’s policies are likely to keep growth humming along in 2017, though tensions over trade could temper any gains.

“The economy is continuing to chug along in the slow lane,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. “Consumer spending was fairly solid. We’re at a turning point on the upside for business investment. Based on the economy and on the policies we’re likely to see, growth is going to speed up this year.”

Economists’ U.S. growth forecasts ranged from 1.7 percent to 2.9 percent. The GDP estimate is the first of three for the quarter, with the other releases scheduled for February and March when more information becomes available. Growth is seen at 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2018, based on median projections in a Bloomberg survey earlier this month.

Soybean Exports

Net exports subtracted 1.7 percentage points from expansion in the October-December period, the most since the second quarter of 2010, as the trade deficit widened following a jump in soybean shipments that helped add to growth in the third quarter.

In addition to household spending, the economy got help from business outlays on equipment, which rose 3.1 percent for the first gain in five quarters. Inventory accumulation added the most to growth since early 2015, housing made the strongest contribution in a year and government spending picked up.

To get a better sense of underlying domestic demand, economists look at final sales to domestic purchasers, which strip out inventories and exports, the two most volatile components of GDP. After adjusting for inflation, such sales grew 2.5 percent last quarter, the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, following a 2.1 percent increase.

The increase in household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, followed the prior quarter’s 3 percent jump. Spending added 1.7 percentage points to growth.

After-tax incomes adjusted for inflation climbed at a 1.5 percent annual rate, a three-year low. The saving rate decreased to 5.6 percent from 5.8 percent.

Inventories Grow

Inventory expansion added 1 percentage point to GDP growth, as stockpiles were rebuilt at a $48.7 billion annualized pace following a $7.1 billion rate.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased at a 2.4 percent annualized pace, adding 0.3 percentage point to growth, the most in five quarters. Investment in nonresidential structures, including office buildings and factories, fell at a 5 percent rate after a 12 percent jump.

The housing recovery continued last quarter. Residential construction increased at a 10.2 percent annualized rate, adding 0.37 percentage point to growth. That followed a 4.1 percent decline in the previous three months.

Government spending grew at a 1.2 percent rate as state and local outlays picked up. Spending by federal agencies fell for the third time in a year, dropping at a 1.2 percent pace.

The GDP report also showed price pressures remain limited. A measure of inflation, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, climbed at a 1.3 percent annualized pace.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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