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RenCap Rates Dangote Cement Positive, Projects N200 Share

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  • RenCap Rates Dangote Cement Positive, Projects N200 Share

Rencap Securities (Nigeria) Limited has maintained its ‘outperform’ rating on shares of Dangote Cement Plc (DCP) has projected that the shares will hit N200 each. DCP closed at N167 per share last Friday.

But Rencap said after a recent meeting with the management and Group Chief Financial Officer of DCP, Mr. Brian Egan, to discuss recent increase in cement prices and volume impact in Nigeria and other operations in Africa, “we maintain our outperform rating and N200 target price.”

According to Rencap, DCP expects strong revenue growth in full year 2016, given the solid demand seen in Nigeria.

“Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortaisation EBITDA) margins, as we expected, will likely be lower from the impact of naira depreciation and increased use of low-pour fuel oil (LPFO) due to gas shortages. Management said gas supply is now stable in Nigeria (a surprise to us) following the conversion of its kilns to be coal-compatible. DCP said it planned to buy coal domestically from mines operated by Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) in Kogi from April. However, we are cautious on this move as locally sourced coal does not burn as fast as imported coal and is therefore less efficient,” the investment banking firm said.

Rencap added that the DCP said the capital expenditure of $400 million in 2016 was mainly used to: fund the Congo plant, complete the Tanzania plant, and convert the Obajana, Ibese and Unicem plants to be coal-compatible.

“In Nigeria, foreign exchange (fx) sourcing challenges remain, although to a lesser extent than previously. Dangote gets a portion of its required FX from exports and money abroad, but says repatriation also remains a challenge,” it said.

Rencap explained that the South African market remains fragmented, with EBITDA margins under 20 per cent (27-29 per cent target from second half of 2016 onwards according to Dangote’s South African subsidiary Sephaku Cement), with cement prices down to $50/t.

“Cement prices remain depressed in Zambia, and while infrastructure investment in Ethiopia continues to drive volume growth, intra-regional political instability poses a risk. To address the problem of repatriating fx to Nigeria from Ethiopia, management is working on an alternative that will see it obtain naira for its birr in a deal with Ethiopian Airlines. Following the ban on the importation of coal in Tanzania, there is a shortage of viable coal, as the local coal supplier, Tancoal, cannot supply the entire market. Management (DCP) is therefore working on obtaining gas from April. Congo’s integrated plant (1.5mn tpa) will be operational in February, while Sierra Leone’s import facility (0.7mn tpa) will come on stream in 1Q17,” Rencap said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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