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Forex Weekly Outlook January 9-13

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U.S Dollar - Investors King
  • Forex Weekly Outlook January 9-13

The U.S dollar rebounded last week after job data showed the economy added just 156,000 jobs in December. Even though, this was lower than 175,000 jobs expected, wages rose 2.9 percent year-on-year. Signaling the labor market is reaching full employment.

However, with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 percent to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent recorded in November, and wages reaching a 7-year high, experts believe worker shortages may become more frequent in 2017 and force businesses to raise wages even more in order to hire skilled workers.

This is expected to boost consumer spending and pressure costs, therefore, underscoring case for the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least 3 times in 2017.

While, in Canada, oil production cut continued to aid the economy and strengthen the position of theĀ loonie. Bolstering trade balance to 26-month high in December, from a deficit of 1.0 billion. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9 percent from 6.8 percent, but a total of 53,700 jobs was created.

Although, the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz has stressed that there is still plenty of slack in the job market, a few experts have said that considering the fact that the U.S. is Canada’s biggest trading partner, that proposed Trump economic plan will boost job creation in Canada and further help revamp the economy after years of low oil prices.

In China, the People’s Bank of China raised the yuan exchange rate against the U.S dollar by 0.92 percent, making it the biggest one-day increase in more than 11 years. But the currency quickly slumped 0.5 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other analysts called on clients to bet against the yuan, citing past scenarios, that the best time to bet against the yuan is after interventions that flushed out bearish positions and argued that intermittent intervention won’t work with Trump presidency, which is expected to cancel TTP deal, hence, they expect the yuan to trade above the 7.1 a dollar in 2017. This week, NZDCAD and EURCAD top my list

NZDCAD

In December, I mentioned the sell opportunity of this pair, since then it has dropped 339 pips to trade at 5-month low. This week, I will treat the evening star formed as theĀ continuation of theĀ bearish trend started in November.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 9-13

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Fundamentally, the Canadian economy is growing and will likely get better going forward, especially with the renewed economic growth in the US and oil production cut by the OPEC. This is projected to aid the Canadian dollar against the New Zealand dollar that currently depends on the struggling Chinese economic performance to function.

Therefore, I will be looking to sell NZDCAD for a 0.9084 target this week as long as 0.9298 resistance holds.

EURCAD

In early December, I mentioned the failure of the ECB’s quantitative easing program to boost inflation rate and help job creation in the manufacturing sector due to weak oversea orders. Since then, this pair has gained 539 pips before retracing below 1.4070 resistance after OPEC successful consensus in December.

Forex Weekly Outlook January 9-13

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But with the Euro-area enmeshed in low inflation rate, weak manufacturing sector and uncertainty surrounding Brexit. I expect this pair to continue its bearish move following gravestone doji formed three weeks ago and a bearish candlestick that opened and closed below 1.4070 resistance.

So this week, I will be looking to sell this pair for 1.3742 targets as long as 1.4070 resistance holds.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 25th July 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of July 25th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ā‚¦1,595.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ā‚¦1,580 and sold it at ā‚¦1,570 on Wednesday, July 24th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ā‚¦1,595
  • Selling Rate: ā‚¦1,585

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

IMTOs Drive 38.86% Rise in Foreign Exchange Inflows to $1.07bn in First Quarter of 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria surged by 38.86% to $1.07 billion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeriaā€™s (CBN) latest quarterly statistical bulletin.

This increase is attributed to the enhanced contributions from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs).

In January, IMTOs facilitated inflows amounting to $383.04 million. This figure dipped slightly to $322.83 million in February but rebounded to $363.70 million by March, this upward trend represents a 10.74% growth from the previous quarter of 2023.

The surge in forex inflows comes at a critical time for Nigeria, as the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, including inflation and a fluctuating naira.

The increased foreign exchange reserves are expected to provide much-needed stability to the naira and bolster Nigeriaā€™s economic standing in the global arena.

CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso has underscored the importance of remittances from the diaspora, which constitute approximately 6% of Nigeria’s GDP.

The recent approval of licenses for 14 new IMTOs is seen as a strategic move to enhance competition and lower transaction costs, thereby encouraging more remittances to flow through formal channels.

“We recognize the significant role that IMTOs play in our foreign exchange ecosystem,” Dr. Cardoso remarked during a recent press briefing.

“The inflows weā€™ve seen are a testament to the effectiveness of our strategy to engage with these operators and ensure that more remittances are channeled through official avenues.”

The CBN has also introduced measures to facilitate IMTOs’ access to naira liquidity at the official window, aiming to streamline the settlement of diaspora remittances.

This initiative is part of the broader effort to stabilize the forex market and address the persistent challenges of foreign currency availability.

The bulletin also revealed that the inflow from IMTOs has contributed significantly to Nigeriaā€™s overall forex reserves, which are crucial for economic stability and growth.

Analysts suggest that the increased remittances will support the naira, providing relief amidst the countryā€™s ongoing economic adjustments.

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Forex

CBN Resumes Forex Sales as Naira Hits N1,570/$ at Parallel Market

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US Dollar - Investorsking.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has resumed the sale of foreign exchange to eligible Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The decision was after Naira dipped to N1,570 per dollar in the parallel market,

CBN announced that it would sell dollars to BDCs at a rate of N1,450 per dollar. This decision aims to address distortions in the retail end of the forex market and support the demand for invisible transactions.

Following the CBN’s intervention, the dollar, which recently traded as low as 1,640 per dollar, has shown signs of stabilization.

The apex bank’s action is expected to inject liquidity and restore confidence among market participants.

BDC operators have welcomed the move. Mohammed Magaji, an operator in Abuja, noted that the dollar was selling at 1,630 per dollar.

He emphasized the market’s volatile nature but expressed optimism about the CBN’s intervention.

Aminu Gwadebe, President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, attributed the naira’s decline to acute shortages, speculative activities, and increased demand due to recent duty waivers.

He praised the CBN’s action as a necessary step to alleviate market pressures.

The CBN’s efforts include selling $20,000 to each eligible BDC, with a directive to limit profit margins to 1.5% above the purchase rate.

This strategy aims to ensure that end-users receive fair rates and to curb inflationary pressures.

The CBN’s ongoing reforms seek to achieve a market-determined exchange rate for the naira. As the naira continues to navigate turbulent waters, stakeholders remain hopeful that these measures will lead to a more stable and liquid forex market.

Market analysts suggest that sustained interventions and increased access to foreign exchange could help reverse the naira’s downward trend.

The CBN’s actions demonstrate a commitment to tackling the challenges facing the foreign exchange market and supporting Nigeria’s economic stability.

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