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Hope, And Fear, as US Gulf Allies Look to Trump

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  • Hope, And Fear, as US Gulf Allies Look to Trump

US Gulf allies are looking at Donald Trump to tilt Washington in their favour, analysts say, but fear a dangerous void if the incoming president goes so far as to tear up the Iran nuclear deal.

Still fuming after the nuclear agreement was brokered over their objections, Saudi Arabia and its fellow Sunni Arab states in the Gulf hope Trump will rebalance ties at the expense of their regional rival Tehran.

Washington’s traditional allies in the Middle East are concerned, however, over the potential uncertainty of a radical move to go back on the deal with Iran.

“Eight years of (President Barack) Obama’s administration destroyed the balance of power in the region completely,” says Mustafa Alani, a senior adviser to the Gulf Research Centre.

Gulf states “hope now that under Trump the regional balance of power is going to be restored” after Obama “just ignored Iran’s expansionist policy” in the Middle East, Alani says.

The oil-rich Gulf states have been highly critical of the nuclear deal, fearing it would lead to more regional “interference” by Tehran.

The Sunni Gulf monarchies oppose predominantly Shiite Iran in a range of conflict-ridden countries across the Middle East, from Syria and Iraq to Yemen and Lebanon.

Trump has also opposed the agreement, which lifted sanctions in exchange for curbs on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

He called it the “worst deal ever negotiated”.

‘Huge new uncertainty’ –

The deal is a centrepiece of President Hassan Rouhani’s expected re-election bid in May, and experts say Tehran is unlikely to be willing to make any concessions to Trump.

“If the Trump administration takes a strong stand and the Iranians refuse, the agreement collapses and there is no replacement,” Alani says.

Given the potential for uncertainty, many experts expect the deal to survive, despite Trump’s rhetoric.

“I believe all the Gulf states will counsel Trump to maintain the agreement rather than introduce a huge new uncertainty into the region,” says Richard LeBaron, an analyst associated with the Atlantic Council in Washington.

Trump may “choose to live with” the Iran accord and focus “on other aspects of the Iranian threat like its missile build-up”, says Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Analysts say Trump is likely to rebalance relations in other ways, however.

Cordesman noted that three figures known for their distrust of Tehran figure prominently in Trump’s team.

They are retired lieutenant general Michael Flynn, national security adviser; retired Marine general James Mattis, nominated as defence secretary; and former ExxonMobil chief executive Rex Tillerson, Trump’s choice for secretary of state.

“All three see Iran as a serious potential threat, recognise the strategic importance of Iraq, and the role Arab states play in deterring Iran,” Cordesman says.

Strained Obama ties –

Ties with Obama became especially strained when he suggested in a magazine interview last year that the Saudis needed to “share” the Middle East with Iran.

His criticism of the kingdom for exporting its fundamentalist “Wahhabist” version of Islam also struck at the heart of the ruling family’s legitimacy.

Saudi Arabia is regularly accused in the West of financing radical mosques and of fuelling extremism, even though the kingdom is part of a US-led coalition against the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq.

Such concerns could impede Gulf ties with the new administration, which has faced accusations of Islamophobia over comments made by incoming officials including Trump.

During the campaign he proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States.

“There is a lack of understanding” in the Trump team “of the Gulf’s effort” against radical Islam, Alani says, noting that Gulf states have themselves suffered attacks.

For LeBaron, “the targeting of Muslims as the source of the security problem will inevitably darken Saudi-American relations”.

Another stumbling block may come in the form of energy policy, a crucial question for the Gulf and Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter.

Trump will certainly be “very favourable to the development” of shale oil and gas in the United States, says Jean-Francois Seznec of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, putting Washington in potential conflict with Gulf producers.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Ghana Ordered to Pay $111.5M to Power Company After U.S. Court Ruling

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The government of Ghana has been ordered to pay $111.5 million to Ghana Power Generation Company (GPGC) following a ruling by a District of Columbia Court in the United States.

This ruling was granted in favor of GPGC after Ghana failed to respond to an earlier tribunal ruling from the United Kingdom, which found the country in breach of a power purchase agreement.

The court’s decision comes after Ghana terminated its contract with GPGC on February 18, 2018. The UK tribunal, in its final award dated January 26, 2021, found that Ghana had violated its contractual obligations, resulting in significant financial damages for GPGC.

The tribunal initially awarded GPGC $134.3 million in damages, calculated using the Early Termination Payment formula as specified in the purchase agreement.

Ghana, however, did not comply with the tribunal’s verdict, prompting GPGC to pursue the matter in U.S. courts. On January 19, 2024, GPGC filed a lawsuit in the District of Columbia, citing the Federal Arbitration Act and the New York Convention, which provides for the recognition of international arbitration awards.

Court documents reveal that the petition was formally delivered to Ghana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration on January 23, 2024.

Despite receiving the legal documents, Ghana failed to respond to the court proceedings by the March 29, 2024, deadline. This non-response led the U.S. court to grant a default judgment in favor of GPGC.

Chief Judge James E. Boasberg emphasized that the arbitral judgment fell under the New York Convention, which requires member states, including the United States, to recognize and enforce international arbitration awards.

He further noted that Ghana had voluntarily submitted to international arbitration when entering the power purchase agreement, waiving its sovereign immunity in the process.

Although GPGC was not awarded pre-judgment interest, Ghana will be obligated to pay post-judgment interest at rates set by U.S. law.

This adds an additional financial burden to the $111.5 million judgment as the payment accrues further interest over time.

The country narrowly avoided a separate $11 billion arbitration award in the infamous P&ID case, which was eventually overturned due to findings of corruption and bribery.

However, in the GPGC case, multiple European courts have upheld enforcement orders, leaving Ghana with limited legal recourse.

The court’s decision is expected to place added pressure on Ghana as it faces mounting financial obligations related to international arbitration disputes.

GPGC has indicated that it will pursue all available legal avenues to ensure full recovery of the damages awarded by the tribunal, including possible enforcement actions in other jurisdictions.

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Zhongshang Fucheng Moves to Auction Nigerian Properties in UK Following $70M Arbitration Award

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Bola Tinubu

Zhongshang Fucheng Industrial Investment Ltd has escalated its efforts to collect a $70 million arbitration award from Nigeria by putting two residential properties in Liverpool up for sale.

This significant development follows a 2021 arbitration verdict against Nigeria, which remains unsettled.

The Chinese investment group has reportedly listed two buildings linked to the Nigerian government—15 Aigburth Hall Road and Beech Lodge, 49 Calderstones Road—on the global online marketplace eBay.

The move is part of a broader strategy to recover the outstanding $70 million, which includes a principal amount of $55,675,000, plus interest and legal costs, as stipulated by the arbitration verdict.

The arbitration stemmed from a dispute between Zhongshang Fucheng and Ogun State over a trade treaty violation.

The company claimed that Ogun State rescinded its rights to a free trade zone in 2016, prompting a legal battle that saw Zhongshang’s executives expelled from Nigeria.

The British court granted Zhongshang the authority to seize Nigerian assets in the UK after the Nigerian government failed to settle the arbitration judgment.

The seizure and subsequent auction of these properties mark a pivotal moment in the ongoing legal conflict.

The properties were confiscated because they were not classified as diplomatic or consular assets, making them subject to seizure under the court’s orders.

According to sources familiar with the situation, the properties are valued at approximately $2.2 million.

Zhongshang Fucheng has opted for an online auction to expedite the sale, aiming to reach a broad pool of potential buyers.

The decision to use eBay highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and swift asset recovery.

“This move is not just about recovering the funds; it’s a demonstration of our commitment to enforcing the arbitration award and ensuring that due process is followed,” said a consultant working with Zhongshang Fucheng, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Nigerian government, already grappling with similar arbitration cases, is facing increased scrutiny as European courts have granted enforcement orders in several countries, including the UK, Belgium, and France.

The ongoing conflict with Zhongshang Fucheng has intensified pressure on Nigerian authorities to address these legal and financial challenges more effectively.

In June 2024, the UK High Court, King’s Bench Division, ruled in favor of Zhongshang’s right to seize the Liverpool properties.

Master Lisa Sullivan’s ruling emphasized that the properties were used for commercial purposes, thereby excluding them from sovereign immunity protections.

The case against Nigeria underscores broader issues related to international arbitration and asset recovery, reflecting a growing trend of global legal disputes over state assets.

For Zhongshang Fucheng, the auction of the Liverpool properties represents a critical step in securing the funds awarded by the arbitration panel.

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NLC Prepares for Protest Against Alleged Intimidation of President Ajaero by Police

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Joe Ajaero

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has announced plans for mass protests and industrial action in response to what it describes as the harassment and intimidation of its president, Joe Ajaero.

This decision follows a summons by the Nigeria Police, accusing Ajaero of involvement in criminal conspiracy, terrorism financing, treasonable felony, subversion, and cybercrime.

In a communique issued at the end of an emergency meeting held on Tuesday, the NLC expressed outrage at the police’s actions and warned that if any harm befalls Ajaero or any other leader of the labour movement, the organization would mobilize its members for nationwide protests.

The congress also hinted at industrial action in defense of its leadership, which it views as being under attack.

“The Congress will not hesitate to take all necessary actions, including mass protests and industrial actions, to protect the integrity and independence of the labour movement,” read the communique signed by Sani Minjibir, Deputy President of the NLC.

“If anything happens to the President of the Congress or any other leader in furtherance of these tendentious allegations by the state, we will not stand idle.”

The NLC further called upon civil society groups and the general public to stand in solidarity with the labour movement, describing the situation as a fight against “injustice and oppression.”

The congress urged Nigerians to defend the country’s democratic values and support their cause in what they see as a critical moment for the future of the labour movement in Nigeria.

The controversy began earlier this week when the police issued an invitation to Ajaero, asking him to report to their Intelligence Response Team (IRT) in Abuja on Tuesday, August 20th, 2024.

The police warned that a warrant for his arrest would be issued if he failed to comply. According to the invitation, Ajaero is being investigated for a range of serious charges, including terrorism financing and cybercrime.

However, Ajaero’s legal counsel, led by renowned human rights lawyer Femi Falana, responded to the police on Tuesday, citing the short notice of the invitation as the reason Ajaero could not attend on the scheduled date.

The letter stated that Ajaero had prior engagements and requested an extension to Wednesday, August 29th, 2024. Falana also demanded detailed information regarding the allegations against Ajaero.

In its communique, the NLC condemned the invitation as a form of “witch-hunting, intimidation, and harassment,” insisting that the charges against Ajaero were politically motivated and intended to weaken the labour movement.

The NLC described the police’s actions as a blatant attempt to silence the leadership of the workers’ movement, warning the government to desist from further antagonizing its leaders.

“We view this as a calculated attempt to weaken and destabilize the labour movement, which has always stood as a bastion of democratic principles and the voice of the Nigerian masses,” the statement continued. “We remain resolute in our commitment to defending the rights and interests of workers and the Nigerian people. We shall not be cowed or intimidated by these desperate attempts to silence us.”

In anticipation of further escalation, the NLC directed its affiliate unions and state councils to begin mobilizing members across the country, stating that it is prepared to take any measures necessary to protect its leadership and the integrity of the labour movement.

The NLC warned the government that any attempt to undermine their rights or freedoms would be met with fierce resistance, including potential strikes and mass actions across Nigeria.

As the deadline for Ajaero’s appearance before the police approaches, tensions between the government and the labour union continue to rise.

The outcome of this confrontation could have far-reaching implications, not only for the leadership of the NLC but also for the broader landscape of Nigeria’s labour and civil rights movements.

The NLC has vowed to stand firm, declaring that it will continue to fight for justice, fairness, and the rule of law in Nigeria.

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