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Analysts Give Conditions for Economic Recovery

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Nigerian economy
  • Analysts Give Conditions for Economic Recovery

Following the optimism of the Presidency that the Nigerian economy will rebound in 2017, financial analysts say the country must pay the required price for it to see recovery and an eventual rebound.

President Muhammadu Buhari, had in his New Year speech, expressed joy that the nation was witnessing a new and impressive turnaround in its socio-economic situation and security.

He also said the economic recovery and growth plan in 2017 was anchored on optimising the use of local content and empowering local businesses.

However, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Enterprise Capital Partners Limited, Mr. Rotimi Fakayejo, told our correspondent that if the economy must start recovering from the current recession, the government must be committed to doing things differently this year.

He said a lot of things had gone wrong in terms of perception of foreign investors and wrong policies, but maintained that a stable and consistent foreign exchange policy would boost the confidence of investors in the economy, while also attracting them to the country.

“Investors who bring in money must be able to get their money out when they want and in good value. This is the problem we are currently facing,” Fakayejo said.

According to the Enterprise Capital boss, an improvement in the price of crude oil in the international market will help the country earn more foreign exchange, which will help boost forex supply and the foreign exchange reserves.

He called on the government to look inwards, reduce imports and improve local production of goods and services.

“We need improvement in power supply to do this, and the rehabilitation of some of our roads is a step in the right direction. Putting the economy on a recovery path is a possibility, as it isn’t rocket science. But with what we’ve seen in the past months, an outright rebound of the economy in 2017 may not be guaranteed,” Fakayejo noted.

An Economist and Vice-Chairman, Quantum Securities Limited, Mr. Andrew Elueni, said with the ongoing resolution of the Niger Delta crisis and more Nigerians taking to one form of agriculture or the other, national production would likely pick up this year.

“For agricultural production, even if we are not producing to export, such production will boost our Gross Domestic Product. This, therefore, is some sort of growth for the economy. If the oil sector improves, other sectors linked to it will also do likewise. All these are growth indicators,” he added.

A financial analyst and Chairman, Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria, Mr. Emeka Madubuike, said the recovery of the economy from recession was possible if certain conditions were met.

According to him, the country has what it takes to get out of recession, adding that issues bordering on power supply, local production and internal peace and stability were critical factors.

Madubuike noted that the country’s challenges were more of policy implementation rather than initiation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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