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We Don’t Have Forex to Import Aviation Fuel — Marketers

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  • We Don’t Have Forex to Import Aviation Fuel

The scarcity of aviation fuel in Nigeria may be far from being over as oil marketers have said they do not have enough foreign exchange to import the product.

The Executive Secretary, Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria, Mr. Obafemi Olawore, in an exclusive interview with our correspondent, said, “As long as we don’t have forex, it becomes difficult for us to import. Give us forex and we will be able to bring more.”

He said the government could not bridge the supply gap for aviation or Jet A1 as done for petrol because of the shortage of forex.

“Government doesn’t have enough. If they give forex to petrol and to aviation fuel, it will affect other sectors. Now, it is even affecting the aviation sector. So, we are saying the government should try and manage it well so that we will have some forex to bring in aviation fuel.”

The MOMAN executive secretary said the arrangement with international oil companies for the provision of forex was for the importation of petrol.

This month, the CBN has asked banks to submit bids for a “special currency auction,” targeting fuel importers to meet demand for matured letters of credit.

The Executive Secretary, Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association, Mr. Olufemi Adewole, said the central bank was making effort to provide marketers with forex.

He, however, said the rate at which marketers were getting the funds was quite exorbitant and that was why the price of aviation fuel was high.

“If there is adequate provision of foreign exchange at a reasonable rate that can bring down the price of fuel, then the landing cost will also drop,” he said.

The marketers are also asking the Federal Government to pay them the foreign exchange differentials for the petrol imports they have made.

Olawore said said, “We will be glad if all our outstanding foreign exchange differentials and interests are all paid immediately.

“That will also help us to go to the market to look for forex.”

On May 11, the government announced a new petrol price band of N135 to N145 per litre, which signalled the end of fuel subsidy.

Prior to the increase from N87 per litre, the nation had suffered a prolonged and severe petrol scarcity as marketers complained that they could not access forex to import.

The new price band was based on an exchange rate of N285 against the dollar, reflecting the depreciation of the naira on the black market, where the currency was trading around 320 to the dollar.

The Central Bank of Nigeria on June 20 floated the naira as it abandoned its 16-month-old peg at 197 to the dollar, effectively devaluing the local currency.

In spite of the liberalisation of petroleum products and government intervention to ease marketers’ access to forex, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation remains the major importer of fuel, especially the Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol.

Olawore said when the naira moved from 197 to 285 to a dollar, there was a differential, adding, “When it moved from 285 to 305, there was a differential. Now we are forced to go to the black market, there is a differential.”

He said the price band of N135-145 for petrol covered up to N285/dollar.

“But who gets it at N285? Even the government could not sell to you at 285,” he said.

Fuel shortages often occur in the country during festive periods such as Christmas and Muslim holidays. But there has been no scarcity of petrol this Yuletide.

Commenting on this, Olawore said, “First, the NNPC has imported much. The second reason is that demand has fallen drastically. Demand has fallen nationwide; people that were filling their tanks are no longer doing so.

“So, every marketer is suffering from low demand and because of that the quantity in the market is enough for now.”

He attributed the decline in demand to the recent price hike, saying, “Not many people can afford it.”

On the forex differentials, Adewole said, “We concluded transactions on the PPPRA imports at the rate of N197/dollar. Naira was devalued and it became what it is today. We have Letters of Credit that have matured and that we have not liquidated.

“And because government paid us at the rate of N197/dollar, we are saying that whether the naira is devalued or not, that is the rate at which we must get dollars to liquidate those LCs because that was the basis of their calculation and payment to us.”

He said the payments for the transactions from December 30, 2014 to September 2015 were delayed.

“The government was supposed to pay within 45 days, but this was not done. The naira was devalued and the government has to bear the difference because we submitted our papers but it did not pay. If it had paid as and when due, we might have liquidated all the LCs because the naira component of the products, which we sold is with us in our banks.

“We only need that of the government to add to it and pay the suppliers. So, that foreign exposure to foreign banks through our local banks is still there and we are asking government to give us dollar at N197.

He said the delay in the payment of the outstanding forex differentials was hampering importation “because a lot of marketers’ funds are tied down.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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