Connect with us

Markets

Oil Pact Could Quickly Sop up Market Glut, Says IEA

Published

on

Oil Prices below $50
  • Oil Pact Could Quickly Sop up Market Glut

A pact by leading producers to cut output could quickly begin sopping up the glut on the oil market that has weighed on prices, the IEA said Tuesday as it also hiked its demand forecast.

The agreements, if implemented, would “hasten the market’s return to balance by working off the inventory overhang,” said the International Energy Agency, which analyses energy markets for major oil consuming nations.

The recent deals are the first joint cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC nations since 2001 and aim to reduce production by just under 1.8 million barrels per day (mbd).

“If OPEC and non-OPEC were to implement strictly their agreed cuts, global inventories could start to draw in the first half of next year,” it added.

The IEA said it was not making any forecast, but suggested that implementation of the pact could result in a draw of 0.6 mbd into stocks.

Oil stocks in the advanced nations which fund the IEA hit a record of 3,102 mb in July.

While they have since declined, “they remain 300 mb above the five-year average, providing a more than ample cushion going into 2017”, said the IEA.

– ‘Implicit goal’ –

The IEA also said that “an implicit goal” of the pact may be “to keep the price of oil from falling below $50” per barrel.

Crude oil prices have risen by around $10 per barrel in recent weeks on the deals by the OPEC and non-OPEC nations.

The benchmark international contract, Brent crude, was trading at around $55.99 per barrel in late morning on Tuesday, around 50 cents up from its level ahead of the report.

“Clearly, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining if the production cuts are being implemented and whether the recent increase in oil prices will last,” said the IEA.

A price of $50 per barrel is seen as the level at which it becomes profitable for many companies to produce oil.

Oil exporting nations have been suffering with prices under that level, even dropping below $30 per barrel at the beginning of this year, as Saudi Arabia led OPEC nations in stepping up output in order gain market share and push rivals with higher production costs out of business.

The IEA found that production increases by OPEC nations continued into November, rising by 300,000 bpd to 34.2 mbd. November output by OPEC nations was 1.4 mbd above that one year ago.

The cartel currently accounts for around 40 percent of total output.

At a meeting last weekend in Vienna, 11 non-members of OPEC agreed cut of production by 558,000 barrels per day, joining an earlier pledge by OPEC nations to cut output by 1.2 mbd for six months.

The IEA said analysis of the market outlook for 2017 was complicated by the fact that OPEC will review in May whether to extend the output cuts.

It said “OPEC also appears to be signalling that high-cost producers should not take for granted that they will receive a free ride to higher production”.

The IEA noted however that US shale producers, the higher-cost producers that OPEC squeezed via low oil prices, appear to be stepping up investment, but made only marginal increases to its forecasts for North American output.

– Demand growth –

While supply will be restrained by the pact between leading oil producers, growth in oil demand has been stronger than forecast.

“Global oil demand growth of 1.4 mbd is foreseen for 2016,” said the IEA, which is an increase of nearly 10 percent from its previous forecast and due in part to “robust demand” in the United States.

Demand growth in 2017 is now seen at 1.3 mbd, up from its previous forecast of 1.2 mbd.

That is still considerably below the five-year high of 1.8 mbd in demand growth registered in 2015.

AFP

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Commodities

Increased Demand Paves The Way for Expansion of Africa’s Sugar Industry

Published

on

Sugar - Investors King

Africa, June 2021:  A new focus report produced by the Oxford Business Group (OBG), in partnership with the International Sugar Organization (ISO), explores the potential that Africa’s sugar industry holds for growth on the back of an anticipated rise in regional demand. The report was presented to ISO members during the MECAS meeting at the Organization’s 58th Council Session, on June 17th 2021.

Titled “Sugar in Africa”, the report highlights the opportunities for investors to contribute to the industry’s development by helping to bridge infrastructure gaps in segments such as farming and refining and port facilities.

The report considers the benefits that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could deliver by supporting fair intra-African sugar trade efforts and bringing regulatory frameworks under a common umbrella, which will be key to improving competitiveness.

The increased international focus on ESG standards is another topical issue examined. Here, the report charts the initiatives already under way in Africa supported by green-focused investment with sustainability at their core, which will help to instil confidence in new investors keen to adhere to ESG principles in their decision-making.

In addition, subscribers will find coverage of the impact that Covid-19 had on the industry, with detailed analysis provided of the decrease in both worldwide sugar production and prices, as movement restrictions and social-distancing measures took their toll on operations.

The report shines a spotlight on sugar production in key markets across the continent, noting regional differences in terms of output and assessing individual countries’ roles as net exporters and importers.

It also includes an interview with José Orive, Executive Director, International Sugar Organisation, in which he maps out the particularities of the African sugar industry, while sharing his thoughts on what needs to be done to promote continental trade and sustainable development.

“The region is well advanced in terms of sugar production overall, but several challenges still hinder its full potential,” he said. “It is not enough to just produce sugar; producers must be able to move it to buyers efficiently. When all negotiations related to the AfCFTA have concluded, we expect greater investment across the continent and a clearer regulatory framework.”

Karine Loehman, OBG’s Managing Director for Africa, said that while the challenges faced by Africa’s sugar producers shouldn’t be underestimated, the new report produced with the ISO pointed to an industry primed for growth on the back of anticipated increased consumption across the continent and higher levels of output in sub-Saharan Africa.

“Regional demand for sugar is expected to rise in the coming years, driven up by Africa’s population growth and drawing a line under declines triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic,” she said. “With sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita sugar consumption currently standing at around half of the global average, the opportunities to help meet increasing domestic need by boosting production are considerable.”

The study on Africa’s sugar industry forms part of a series of tailored reports that OBG is currently producing with its partners, alongside other highly relevant, go-to research tools, including a range of country-specific Growth and Recovery Outlook articles and interviews.

Continue Reading

Gold

Global Demand for Investment Gold Plunged by 70% YoY to 161 Metric Tons in Q1 2021

Published

on

gold bars - Investors King

Last year, investors flocked to gold as stock markets crashed on a gloomy economic outlook due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter of 2020, global demand for investment gold surged to over 591 metric tons, the second-highest level since 2016. However, the investors’ demand for gold has dropped significantly this year.

According to data compiled by AksjeBloggen, global demand for investment gold plunged by 70% year-over-year to 161 metric tons in the first quarter of 2021.

The Lowest Quarterly Figures after Record Gold Investments in 2020

In 2016, the global gold demand amounted to 4,309 metric tons, revealed Statista and the World Gold Council data. By the end of 2019, this figure rose to 4,356 metric tons. Investment gold accounted for 30% of that amount. Worldwide gold jewelry demand volumes reached 2,118 metric tons that year. Central banks and technology followed with 648 and 326 metric tons, respectively.

Statistics show the global demand for investment gold surged amid the COVID-19 outbreak, growing by 35% YoY to almost 1,800 metric tons in 2020. Demands for gold used in technology also rose by 17% to 383.4 metric tons, while central banks and other institutions bought 326.2 metric tons of gold in 2020, a 50% plunge in a year.

However, after record gold investments in 2020, the global demand for gold for investment purposes dropped to the lowest quarterly level in years.

The Price of Gold Dropped by 5% Since January

The average gold value tends to increase during a recession, making it an attractive investment in uncertain times. In February 2019, a troy ounce of gold cost $1,320.07, revealed the Statista and World Gold Council data. By the end of that year, the price of gold rose to $1,479.13.

The gold price continued growing throughout 2020, reaching an all-time high of over $2,000 in August. By the end of the year, the precious metal price slipped to $1,864 and then rose to over $1,950 in January 2021.

However, the first quarter of the year brought a negative trend, with the price of gold falling to $1,684 by the end of March. Statistics indicate the price of gold stood at around $1,860 last week, a 5% drop since the beginning of the year.

Continue Reading

Gold

Gold, Other Safe Haven Assets Plunge Ahead of Fed Rate Hikes

Published

on

Gold and Bitcoin - Investors King

Gold and other safe-haven assets plunged last week as the Federal Reserve signals the possibility of raising interest rates twice in 2023 given the ongoing economic recovery post-COVID-19.

The price of gold dropped by 6.04 percent last week as investors rushed to move their funds out of safe-haven assets including the new gold, cryptocurrency.

The entire crypto space sheds $898 billion in market value to hover around $1.625 trillion last week, down from $2.523 trillion recorded on Wednesday 12, 2021. Its highest market capitalisation till date.

The Federal Reserve raised inflation expectations to 3.4 percent and shifted the year it is expected to increase interest rates from near-zero to 2023 from the previously projected 2024.

The new hawkish stance of the central bank led to capital outflow from safe havens and subsequently boosted dollar attraction.

The United States Dollar gained across the board with the dollar index that tracks its performance against six major currencies, rising by 0.63 percent to 91.103 last week.

However, on Monday morning the gold showed signs of recovery, gaining 0.5 percent to $1,772.34 per ounce following the retreat in U.S. treasury yield that boosted the attraction of non-yielding metal.

Bitcoin, the most dominant cryptocurrency coin, pared losses to $33,245 per coin, up from the $32,658 decline it posted last week.

Continue Reading




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending