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Oil Pact Could Quickly Sop up Market Glut, Says IEA

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Oil Prices below $50
  • Oil Pact Could Quickly Sop up Market Glut

A pact by leading producers to cut output could quickly begin sopping up the glut on the oil market that has weighed on prices, the IEA said Tuesday as it also hiked its demand forecast.

The agreements, if implemented, would “hasten the market’s return to balance by working off the inventory overhang,” said the International Energy Agency, which analyses energy markets for major oil consuming nations.

The recent deals are the first joint cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC nations since 2001 and aim to reduce production by just under 1.8 million barrels per day (mbd).

“If OPEC and non-OPEC were to implement strictly their agreed cuts, global inventories could start to draw in the first half of next year,” it added.

The IEA said it was not making any forecast, but suggested that implementation of the pact could result in a draw of 0.6 mbd into stocks.

Oil stocks in the advanced nations which fund the IEA hit a record of 3,102 mb in July.

While they have since declined, “they remain 300 mb above the five-year average, providing a more than ample cushion going into 2017”, said the IEA.

– ‘Implicit goal’ –

The IEA also said that “an implicit goal” of the pact may be “to keep the price of oil from falling below $50” per barrel.

Crude oil prices have risen by around $10 per barrel in recent weeks on the deals by the OPEC and non-OPEC nations.

The benchmark international contract, Brent crude, was trading at around $55.99 per barrel in late morning on Tuesday, around 50 cents up from its level ahead of the report.

“Clearly, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining if the production cuts are being implemented and whether the recent increase in oil prices will last,” said the IEA.

A price of $50 per barrel is seen as the level at which it becomes profitable for many companies to produce oil.

Oil exporting nations have been suffering with prices under that level, even dropping below $30 per barrel at the beginning of this year, as Saudi Arabia led OPEC nations in stepping up output in order gain market share and push rivals with higher production costs out of business.

The IEA found that production increases by OPEC nations continued into November, rising by 300,000 bpd to 34.2 mbd. November output by OPEC nations was 1.4 mbd above that one year ago.

The cartel currently accounts for around 40 percent of total output.

At a meeting last weekend in Vienna, 11 non-members of OPEC agreed cut of production by 558,000 barrels per day, joining an earlier pledge by OPEC nations to cut output by 1.2 mbd for six months.

The IEA said analysis of the market outlook for 2017 was complicated by the fact that OPEC will review in May whether to extend the output cuts.

It said “OPEC also appears to be signalling that high-cost producers should not take for granted that they will receive a free ride to higher production”.

The IEA noted however that US shale producers, the higher-cost producers that OPEC squeezed via low oil prices, appear to be stepping up investment, but made only marginal increases to its forecasts for North American output.

– Demand growth –

While supply will be restrained by the pact between leading oil producers, growth in oil demand has been stronger than forecast.

“Global oil demand growth of 1.4 mbd is foreseen for 2016,” said the IEA, which is an increase of nearly 10 percent from its previous forecast and due in part to “robust demand” in the United States.

Demand growth in 2017 is now seen at 1.3 mbd, up from its previous forecast of 1.2 mbd.

That is still considerably below the five-year high of 1.8 mbd in demand growth registered in 2015.

AFP

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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