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Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Euro currency
  • Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

As the world awaits the Federal Reserve rate decision this week, the U.S economy continued to churn out positive economic data amid Trump’s proposed fiscal spending in 2017. The services sector expanded (57.2) the most in over a year in November, while the US factory orders rose 2.7 percent in October, the highest in 1-1/2 years. Also, a gauge of confidence in the economy showed that consumers’ sentiment surged 4.5 percent in December to 98 percent, a little below 2015 high, which was the highest since 2004. These data confirmed the resurgence in the U.S economy and validated manufacturing sector recovery as investors continue to increase their stocks holding ahead of Trump presidency.

Although, experts have said uncertainty surrounding incoming administration’s policy in early 2017 will fuel market volatility as businesses and investors continue to position for business tax cuts and an aggressive fiscal stimulus package. However, the possibility of rate increase having substantial impacts this week is minimal, this is because the financial market as a whole has shifted focus to a series of policies president-elect planned to implement as he attempt to stimulate the economy through aggressive fiscal spending and job creation in January.

Again, this week the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent on Wednesday. Also, retail sales, producers’ price index, building permits and inflation rate data are due this week.

In the Euro-area, the European Central Bank (ECB) president, Mario Draghi, last week announced the extension of asset buying program that was scheduled to end in March 2017 to December 2017. According to the president, an adjusted quantitative easing program will begins on April 2017 at €60 billion a month up till December 2017. Down from the on-going €80 billion asset-purchasing program.

While the Euro-area economic outlook remains vague with a low inflation rate and weak manufacturing sector, the president forecast an accelerated inflation rate of 1.7 percent in 2019 from present 0.2 percent. This decision prompted investors to doubt the region monetary space to react to possible uncertainty in-case incoming economic data digress from projection.

Again, the statement that purchases would continue beyond 2017 if the institution deem it fit to lift inflation back towards its target per adventure this extension failed to materialize, further cast doubt on the economic stability of the region and encourage sell-off of the Euro currency against its counterparts last week. Especially with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates this week, the market is anticipating possible parity of the EURUSD pair.

In Australia, the economy contracted 0.5 percent, after data showed slow growth amid subdued investment outlook and low inflation rate in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor attributed the negative growth rate to temporary swing, therefore, leaving the cash rate at a record low of 1.5 percent on Tuesday. This week, I will be looking to trade EURCAD and AUDUSD.

EURCAD

This pair has lost about 1370 pips within 5 weeks and closed below 1.4070 support level established since November 2015, after the ECB extends its quantitative easing program last week. While, the Canadian dollar on the other hand has recovered from previous lows, following a successful production cut by both OPEC and non-OPEC. Again, economic data from Canada showed the economy has bounced back from Alberta wild fire with the manufacturing sector gradually improving.  Also, the Euro-area is currently going through political uncertainty – France and Italy election, Greece financial woes and Brexit. Hence, the reason I sold this pair on Wednesday last week, but this week I am maintaining my bearish outlook on this pair as long as 1.4070 resistance holds, with 1.3742 as the target. I believe once the market digests the news of OPEC and non-OPEC reaching consensus over the weekend that the Canadian dollar will get a boost.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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AUDUSD

This pair failed twice to breach 0.7505 resistance in the past two weeks, and further weighed upon by the 0.5 percent negative growth rate recorded by the Australian economy in the third quarter of the year, the first time in 25 years. Although, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said it was a temporary swing, but few experts have questioned the economic stability of the Aussie and call for more a proactive approach. Whereas, the US dollar is likely to get a boost from the Federal Reserve this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Again, at 74 cents to a US dollar, Aussie dollar is a little overpriced. This week, I will be looking to sell this pair as long as 0.7505 hold for 0.7379 first target and 0.7203 as the second target.

Last week Recap

EURGBP

This week, I remain bearish on EURGBP as long as 0.8471 holds and will be targeting 0.8240 support as discussed last week, a sustained break of that should open up 0.8117 level.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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NZDCAD

This pair topped our list last week, but fell short of our target. This week, as long as 0.9505 resistance is intact I am bearish on this pair with 0.9298 as the target.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 19th, 2024

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira Notes

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,020 and sell it at N1,010 on Thursday, April 18th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,100
  • Selling Rate: N1,090

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Naira

Naira’s Recent Gain Reflects Policy Direction, Says CBN Chief Olayemi Cardoso

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has explained that the recent surge in the Naira is a testament to the positive direction of government policies rather than active intervention to defend the currency’s value.

Addressing attendees at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Governor Cardoso underscored that the CBN’s intention is not to artificially prop up the Naira.

He clarified that the fluctuations observed in the country’s foreign exchange reserves were not aimed at defending the currency but rather aligning with broader economic goals.

Over the past month, the Naira has experienced a notable uptick in value against the dollar, signaling a reversal from previous declines. Data from Bloomberg reveals a 6.4% decrease in liquid reserves since March 18, coinciding with the Naira’s rebound.

Despite this decline, Cardoso pointed out that around $600 million had flowed into the reserves in the past two days, reflecting confidence in the Nigerian market.

Governor Cardoso articulated the CBN’s vision of a market-driven exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates through willing buyers and sellers.

He expressed optimism about a future where the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market would be minimal, except in extraordinary circumstances.

The recent resilience of the Naira follows a period of volatility earlier in the year, marked by a substantial devaluation in January. Since then, the CBN has implemented measures to stabilize the currency, including monetary tightening and initiatives to enhance dollar liquidity.

Cardoso highlighted the transformation in market sentiment, noting that investors now perceive Nigeria’s central bank as committed to stabilizing inflation and fostering economic stability.

As Nigeria continues its journey toward economic recovery and stability, Cardoso’s remarks provide insight into the central bank’s strategy and its impact on the country’s currency dynamics.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 18th, 2024

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

on

New Naira Notes

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,050 and sell it at N1,040 on Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,020
  • Selling Rate: N1,010

Continue Reading
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