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Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Euro currency
  • Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

As the world awaits the Federal Reserve rate decision this week, the U.S economy continued to churn out positive economic data amid Trump’s proposed fiscal spending in 2017. The services sector expanded (57.2) the most in over a year in November, while the US factory orders rose 2.7 percent in October, the highest in 1-1/2 years. Also, a gauge of confidence in the economy showed that consumers’ sentiment surged 4.5 percent in December to 98 percent, a little below 2015 high, which was the highest since 2004. These data confirmed the resurgence in the U.S economy and validated manufacturing sector recovery as investors continue to increase their stocks holding ahead of Trump presidency.

Although, experts have said uncertainty surrounding incoming administration’s policy in early 2017 will fuel market volatility as businesses and investors continue to position for business tax cuts and an aggressive fiscal stimulus package. However, the possibility of rate increase having substantial impacts this week is minimal, this is because the financial market as a whole has shifted focus to a series of policies president-elect planned to implement as he attempt to stimulate the economy through aggressive fiscal spending and job creation in January.

Again, this week the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent on Wednesday. Also, retail sales, producers’ price index, building permits and inflation rate data are due this week.

In the Euro-area, the European Central Bank (ECB) president, Mario Draghi, last week announced the extension of asset buying program that was scheduled to end in March 2017 to December 2017. According to the president, an adjusted quantitative easing program will begins on April 2017 at €60 billion a month up till December 2017. Down from the on-going €80 billion asset-purchasing program.

While the Euro-area economic outlook remains vague with a low inflation rate and weak manufacturing sector, the president forecast an accelerated inflation rate of 1.7 percent in 2019 from present 0.2 percent. This decision prompted investors to doubt the region monetary space to react to possible uncertainty in-case incoming economic data digress from projection.

Again, the statement that purchases would continue beyond 2017 if the institution deem it fit to lift inflation back towards its target per adventure this extension failed to materialize, further cast doubt on the economic stability of the region and encourage sell-off of the Euro currency against its counterparts last week. Especially with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates this week, the market is anticipating possible parity of the EURUSD pair.

In Australia, the economy contracted 0.5 percent, after data showed slow growth amid subdued investment outlook and low inflation rate in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor attributed the negative growth rate to temporary swing, therefore, leaving the cash rate at a record low of 1.5 percent on Tuesday. This week, I will be looking to trade EURCAD and AUDUSD.

EURCAD

This pair has lost about 1370 pips within 5 weeks and closed below 1.4070 support level established since November 2015, after the ECB extends its quantitative easing program last week. While, the Canadian dollar on the other hand has recovered from previous lows, following a successful production cut by both OPEC and non-OPEC. Again, economic data from Canada showed the economy has bounced back from Alberta wild fire with the manufacturing sector gradually improving.  Also, the Euro-area is currently going through political uncertainty – France and Italy election, Greece financial woes and Brexit. Hence, the reason I sold this pair on Wednesday last week, but this week I am maintaining my bearish outlook on this pair as long as 1.4070 resistance holds, with 1.3742 as the target. I believe once the market digests the news of OPEC and non-OPEC reaching consensus over the weekend that the Canadian dollar will get a boost.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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AUDUSD

This pair failed twice to breach 0.7505 resistance in the past two weeks, and further weighed upon by the 0.5 percent negative growth rate recorded by the Australian economy in the third quarter of the year, the first time in 25 years. Although, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said it was a temporary swing, but few experts have questioned the economic stability of the Aussie and call for more a proactive approach. Whereas, the US dollar is likely to get a boost from the Federal Reserve this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Again, at 74 cents to a US dollar, Aussie dollar is a little overpriced. This week, I will be looking to sell this pair as long as 0.7505 hold for 0.7379 first target and 0.7203 as the second target.

Last week Recap

EURGBP

This week, I remain bearish on EURGBP as long as 0.8471 holds and will be targeting 0.8240 support as discussed last week, a sustained break of that should open up 0.8117 level.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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NZDCAD

This pair topped our list last week, but fell short of our target. This week, as long as 0.9505 resistance is intact I am bearish on this pair with 0.9298 as the target.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 12-16

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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naira

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,260
  • Selling Rate: N1,250

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Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

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New Naira notes

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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