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South Africa GDP Growth Slows to 0.2%

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South Africa Economy
  • South Africa GDP Growth Slows to 0.2%

South Africa’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter as factory production and trade contracted, complicating the government’s task of boosting output to avoid a possible credit-rating downgrade to junk next year.

Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 0.2 percent in the three months through September compared with upwardly revised growth of 3.5 percent in the preceding quarter, the statistics office said in a report released on Tuesday in Cape Town. The median of 19 economist surveyed forecast 0.6 percent growth compared with unrevised expansion of 3.3 percent in the second quarter. The economy expanded 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

S&P Global Ratings last week affirmed the nation’s BBB- assessment, the lowest investment-grade level, while warning that political turmoil has distracted from reforms to boost growth. The economy will probably expand at the slowest pace this year since a 2009 recession. Slow growth will make it more difficult for Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to meet his pledge to narrow the budget deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2020, from a projected 3.4 percent this year, and to limit government debt, according to Nicky Weimar, an economist at Nedbank Ltd.

“The only conclusion you can draw from a 0.2 percent growth rate is that there is no momentum and it seems to suggest there is very little underlying confidence,” Weimar said by phone. Ratings companies want to see “that we start to implement the sort of policies that will get us to a faster growth rate,” she said.

Factory output, which makes up about 13 percent of GDP, contracted by an annualized 3.2 percent from the previous quarter and trade shrank by an annualized 2.1 percent, the statistics office said. Mining production rose 5.1 percent and the finance industry expanded by 1.2 percent.

Gordhan, 67, has been leading efforts to avoid a cut to junk while wrangling with President Jacob Zuma over control of the Treasury and state-owned companies. That and delays in passing new mining and anti-money laundering laws and a failed attempt by senior African National Congress officials last week to oust Zuma have fueled perceptions of political turmoil and policy uncertainty.

High Unemployment

Low commodity prices, the worst drought in more than a century and weak export demand have weighed on output and the economy will probably expand 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2017, according to the central bank. That won’t create the jobs required to reduce the nation’s 27 percent unemployment rate, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Nov. 30.

“It’s certainly not enough growth to assist with the social issues like unemployment or income growth and this will keep ratings agencies nervous about the country’s rating,” Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib Asset Management Ltd. in Johannesburg, said by phone. “It’s clear that South Africa is facing a crisis in economic activity.”

The rand gained 0.6 percent to 13.6511 per dollar by 10:37 a.m. in Johannesburg on Tuesday. Yields on rand-denominated government bonds due December 2026 fell three basis points to 8.95 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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