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Oil Prices Fall as OPEC Fails to Stop Excess Production

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  • Oil Prices Fall as OPEC Fails to Stop Excess Production

Oil prices dipped Tuesday as expectations dimmed of an OPEC agreement to reduce the cartel’s gushing of crude into the massively saturated global market by around a million barrels per day.

Prices were also hit as non-OPEC Russia confirmed it would not send a delegation to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.

In late morning European trading, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in January was down 73 cents a barrel to $46.35, in what market analyst Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets called “heebie-jeebies” on the eve of the talks.

Brent North Sea crude was down 0.72 cents to $47.52.

Analysts expect further falls if OPEC fails to agree on Wednesday its first joint output cut in eight years in an effort to reduce the global glut and so lift prices.

The group’s big players — Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq — disagree on what size cuts each member will make, and the cartel wants non-OPEC countries like Russia to reduce production too.

Russia is currently pumping some 11 million barrels per day, a level not seen since Soviet days. Hit hard by the low price and Western sanctions, Moscow has said it is ready to freeze output but not to cut it.

While making life cheaper for consumers and businesses, two years of low prices have wreaked havoc with the public finances of OPEC member states, even in the wealthy Gulf states.

But Iraq and Iran, OPEC’s biggest producers after Saudi Arabia, on Monday continued to express objections to a proposal to cut up to 1.2 million barrels per day from October levels, Bloomberg News reported, citing an OPEC delegate.

In a 10-hour meeting, Iran said it might be ready to freeze production at about 200,000 barrels a day above its current output of around 3.975 million bpd, Bloomberg said.

Saudi Arabia hit back, saying Tehran should freeze its production at just over 3.7 million bpd — more or less its current level.

Iran has consistently said it won’t cut production until it has reached pre-sanctions levels. It is also a fierce regional rival of Saudi Arabia, engaged in a proxy war in Yemen and backing different sides in Syria.

Iraq meanwhile has said it will cut output but that it is short of money needed to fight Islamic State extremists. It also disputes with OPEC the level of its current output.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia added to the pessimism about prospects for a deal on Sunday by appearing to say it could live without an agreement.

Recovering demand, said Energy Minister Khaled al-Falih — due in Vienna later Tuesday — would “stabilise” prices in 2017 anyway.

Prices had made a slight recovery Monday after Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi sounded an upbeat note as he arrived in Vienna, saying he was “optimistic” that the 14-country group would strike an accord.

Algeria, which is trying to mediate a deal, on Monday proposed a compromise with Iran capping its production at 3.795 bpd, delegates said, according to Bloomberg.

However, there has been no indication that any such proposal will actually be accepted when the oil ministers meet on Wednesday.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at top Nordic corporate bank SEB, said that the chances of an output cut are now “very low”.

The best possible result, at this stage, was that the club would end up with a face-saving deal while “kicking the can to the next OPEC meeting in half a year’s time”, Schieldrop said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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