Connect with us

Markets

Oil Slumps as Prospect of Trump Victory Roils Global Markets

Published

on

oil
  • Oil Slumps as Prospect of Trump Victory Roils Global Markets

Oil slumped as initial results indicating Republican Donald Trump may prevail over Hillary Clinton in the race for the U.S. presidency threw global markets into turmoil.

Futures tumbled as much as 4.3 percent in New York to the lowest since September while U.S. stock index futures and Asian equities fell with the Mexican peso. Investors are fleeing riskier assets and pouring into havens such as Treasuries and gold. In addition to winning the key states of Florida and North Carolina, Trump captured Ohio, giving him a path to beating his Democrat rival.

A possible Trump win is unhinging markets that had banked on a continuation of economic and trade policies under a Democrat president. Most polls had shown Clinton ahead of Trump going into the vote and websites that took bets on the victor had put her odds of winning at 80 percent or more. Oil may fall as much as $2 with a Trump victory, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a Nov. 4 report.

“Oil prices will be crushed if Trump is elected,” said Hong Sung Ki, Seoul-based commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. “If he gets elected, the impact will be greater than Brexit. Market preference for havens will be much stronger, while risk assets, including oil will plunge.”

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery dropped as much as $1.91 to $43.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $43.85 at 2:17 p.m. in Hong Kong. The contract gained 9 cents to $44.98 on Tuesday. Total volume traded was more than sevenfold the 100-day average.

Brent for January settlement dropped as much as $1.64, or 3.6 percent, to $44.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract declined 11 cents to $46.04 on Tuesday. The global benchmark traded at a 45-cent premium to WTI for January delivery.

Trump Trade

The final results of the state by state fight for the presidency were still being tallied early Wednesday, but signs were pointing Trump’s way after he won Florida, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina. Clinton pulled out a victory in Virginia and Colorado — two states critical to her chances — but Trump was competitive in three other states she was counting on, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

“The market is concerned about Trump’s trade policies,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “The market view is that the imposing of significant import tariffs on China and Mexico and others will likely slow world growth and creates the possibility of trade wars with retaliatory action from China.”

If Trump wins, oil prices could fall $1 to $2 below $45, if gold increases along with a sell-off in U.S. equities and other risk assets, Citigroup analysts said in the report. However, a Trump victory could “push some investors to perceive additional geopolitical risk in the market, which may buttress oil prices,” the analysts wrote.

In a special report on Nov. 7, Societe Generale SA said neither election outcome would have a profound impact on oil, while analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. said a Clinton victory combined with an OPEC deal could trigger sharp rebounds.

If Clinton wins, investors would be watching to see if she follows through on pledges to reduce water pollution and methane emissions from hydraulic fracturing. Fracking, which along with horizontal drilling unlocked hard to reach oil and gas resources from shale formations, enabled the U.S. to boost production by more than 4 million barrels a day from 2011 to 2015.

Longer term, the reaction in oil markets to the election result would likely take a back seat to questions over whether OPEC will be able to complete a deal to restrain output at its late November meeting in Vienna.

“Oil prices are in for some volatility until the dust settles,” said Tushar Tarun Bansal, director at industry consultant Ivy Global Energy in Singapore. “However, either outcome doesn’t change the immediate supply demand fundamentals in the short term. It does add to the long term uncertainty about the global markets.”

Oil has retreated below $45 a barrel following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ failure to agree on output quotas for member countries on Oct. 28. The group must reach a consensus before finalizing its September deal to cut production. OPEC’s chief warned of prolonged market instability if there is no agreement to limit supply.

U.S. natural gas futures were also down as much as 3.3 percent in electronic trading, extending their biggest decline since July. A Trump victory would mean an 11 percent drop in power plants’ gas demand in 2030 from 2015 levels, while a Clinton win would boost demand by 5.8 percent, based on Bloomberg Intelligence estimates in September.

In other oil market news:

  • Militants below up the Forcados oil pipeline in Nigeria, Niger Delta Avengers’ spokesperson Mudoch Agbinibo wrote on Twitter.
  • U.S crude supplies rose by 4.4 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report Tuesday. Government data Wednesday is forecast to show stockpiles gained 2 million barrels.
  • Energy companies led declines in Asia. Australian producer Santos Ltd. dropped 7.5 percent, the most since May. China Petroleum and Chemical Corp., the world’s biggest refiner known as Sinopec, slumped as much as 7.8 percent during intraday trading in Hong Kong.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

Published

on

Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

Published

on

NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

Continue Reading

Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

Published

on

gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending