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Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4
  • Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

The US economy recorded its fastest growth rate in two years in the third quarter, expanding at a 2.9 percent annualized rate. While, this is more than the 1.4 percent recorded in the second quarter and surpassed analysts’ 2.5 percent forecast, the dollar declined against most of its counterparts on Friday, after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said it would investigate Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server while secretary of state. This report, shocked the markets that was already pricing in the likelihood of a Clinton president over Donald Trump and subsequently plunged the US stocks and currency, as investors scramble to assess the news that could be an advantage to Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, the new home sales (593,000) came out below economists’ forecast of 601,000 in September, but better than 575,000 recorded in August, while consumer sentiment drop to 98.6 in October, from 103.5 in September. On a critical look into the GDP report, consumer spending (2.1 percent) that has aided the economy, thus far was weaker than predicted in the third quarter, creating a mixed picture of the economy, but the increase in inventory rebuilding and soybean-related exports boosted the rebound recorded in the quarter. Although, the data is in line with Federal Reserve’s slow and steady progress, it is uncertain if the mixed outlook and strong underlying fundamentals are enough to raise rates this December.

However, the US dollar is expected to continue its gains once investors digested the FBI announcement and realized it’s unlikely to impact the election as it is. The table below shows U.S key macro data due this week.

US Economic  Release                              Forecast                 Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m            0.3%                          0.2%
Non-Farm Employment Change         175K                           156K              
Unemployment Rate                               4.9%                             5.0%             
Trade Balance                                           -39.2B                         -40.7B
Federal Funds Rate                                  0.5%                             0.5%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI              56.2                              57.1

In the UK, the economy surprisingly expanded 0.5 percent in the third quarter, beating 0.3 percent predicted by analysts even after the country’s decision to leave the European Union in June. The economy continued to grow with a better than expected performance from the services sector, growing at 0.8 percent rate, the fastest since 2009.

While construction fell 1.4 percent and manufacturing declined 1 percent with production dropping 0.4 percent in the third quarter, the economy’s resilience, due to strong consumer spending and services sector means it is unlikely the Bank of England will ease below current 0.25 percent interest rate this year — this is because the inflation rate is rising at a much faster pace and it will continue with the pound lower exchange rate and increasing cost of imported goods. This week, manufacturing, services and construction PMI report will help assess economic improvement prior to the monetary policy committee decision due on Thursday.

In Australia, inflation rate unexpectedly rose 0.7 percent in the third quarter, reducing the possibility of the RBA cutting rate in November. Even though, the RBA new governor Philip Lowe said the various factors suppressing inflation are expected to continue for a while, markets believe with the yearly inflation at 1.3 percent and an unemployment rate at 5.6 percent that it is unlikely the apex bank will loosen monetary policy this year, especially with high asset prices, particularly housing in Sydney and Melbourne, further easing could fuel borrowing among already heavily indebted Australian households. This week, the RBA is expected to maintain current 1.5 percent cash rate at its next meeting on Tuesday, while building approvals report is expected to dip further to -2.8 percent from previously declining -1.8 percent. Retail sales and trade balance will throw more lights to consumer spending and improvement in the manufacturing sector going forward.

Crude Oil, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is yet to finalize production cap, as Iraq is seeking a similar exemption to what Nigeria and Libya are likely to get when the organization meet again on November 20. While, Iran has disagreed with the OPEC’s methodology insisting the nation need to reach pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day, an increase of about 400,000 barrels a day from current levels — a situation that is threatening the viability of the Algiers accord.

According, non-OPEC producers are yet to join OPEC on production cap, suggesting they wanted the OPEC to solve its differences before making known their commitment to managing the global oil glut.

Brent crude dropped 0.6 percent on Friday to trade at $49.42 a barrel.

Overall, high volatility is expected in the month of November, considering the US presidential election is due on November 8 — with fresh huddles for the Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton to negate going forward. This week, investors will seek to digest a series of macro data and monetary policy decision due across key G7 nations. Also, commodities dependent currencies are likely to experience more volatility as OPEC seek to reach a consensus amid disagreement among its members. However, this week, my last week pick top my list, while monitoring series of events that will be unfolding across the financial market.

 

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 1, 2021

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Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 1, 2021

Naira exchanged at N482 to a United States Dollar on Monday on the parallel market, while it traded at N480 to a US Dollar at the bureau de change section of the foreign exchange market.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
2/26/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
2/26/2021 POUNDS STERLING 527.7196 528.4158 529.112
2/26/2021 EURO 459.0448 459.6504 460.256
2/26/2021 SWISS FRANC 418.3685 418.9204 419.4723
2/26/2021 YEN 3.5644 3.5691 3.5738
2/26/2021 CFA 0.6873 0.6973 0.7073
2/26/2021 WAUA 547.559 548.2813 549.0037
2/26/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.6007 58.6785 58.7562
2/26/2021 RIYAL 101.0505 101.1838 101.3171
2/26/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 25.2827 25.316 25.3494

 

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Thursday, February 25, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Thursday, February 25, 2021

The Nigerian Naira traded at N480 to a United States Dollar in the early hours of Thursday, February 24, 2020 at the parallel market popularly known as the black market. While the British pound was exchanged at N672 and Euro sold for N583. See the details below.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
25/02/2021 475/480 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/480 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
2/24/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
2/24/2021 POUNDS STERLING 535.7923 536.4992 537.206
2/24/2021 EURO 461.0914 461.6997 462.308
2/24/2021 SWISS FRANC 417.6309 418.1818 418.7328
2/24/2021 YEN 3.5805 3.5853 3.59
2/24/2021 CFA 0.6825 0.6925 0.7025
2/24/2021 WAUA 546.5445 547.2656 547.9866
2/24/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.7606 58.8386 58.9166
2/24/2021 RIYAL 101.0505 101.1838 101.3171
2/24/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 26.0338 26.0681 26.1025

 

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, February 24, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Naira remained weak against global counterparts as the local currency opened at N480 against the United States Dollar on the black market in the early morning of Wednesday,  February 24, 2020.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 470/480 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

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