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Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

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United States Dollar - Investors King Ltd
  • Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

The US economy recorded its fastest growth rate in two years in the third quarter, expanding at a 2.9 percent annualized rate. While, this is more than the 1.4 percent recorded in the second quarter and surpassed analysts’ 2.5 percent forecast, the dollar declined against most of its counterparts on Friday, after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said it would investigate Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server while secretary of state. This report, shocked the markets that was already pricing in the likelihood of a Clinton president over Donald Trump and subsequently plunged the US stocks and currency, as investors scramble to assess the news that could be an advantage to Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, the new home sales (593,000) came out below economists’ forecast of 601,000 in September, but better than 575,000 recorded in August, while consumer sentiment drop to 98.6 in October, from 103.5 in September. On a critical look into the GDP report, consumer spending (2.1 percent) that has aided the economy, thus far was weaker than predicted in the third quarter, creating a mixed picture of the economy, but the increase in inventory rebuilding and soybean-related exports boosted the rebound recorded in the quarter. Although, the data is in line with Federal Reserve’s slow and steady progress, it is uncertain if the mixed outlook and strong underlying fundamentals are enough to raise rates this December.

However, the US dollar is expected to continue its gains once investors digested the FBI announcement and realized it’s unlikely to impact the election as it is. The table below shows U.S key macro data due this week.

US Economic  Release                              Forecast                 Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m            0.3%                          0.2%
Non-Farm Employment Change         175K                           156K              
Unemployment Rate                               4.9%                             5.0%             
Trade Balance                                           -39.2B                         -40.7B
Federal Funds Rate                                  0.5%                             0.5%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI              56.2                              57.1

In the UK, the economy surprisingly expanded 0.5 percent in the third quarter, beating 0.3 percent predicted by analysts even after the country’s decision to leave the European Union in June. The economy continued to grow with a better than expected performance from the services sector, growing at 0.8 percent rate, the fastest since 2009.

While construction fell 1.4 percent and manufacturing declined 1 percent with production dropping 0.4 percent in the third quarter, the economy’s resilience, due to strong consumer spending and services sector means it is unlikely the Bank of England will ease below current 0.25 percent interest rate this year — this is because the inflation rate is rising at a much faster pace and it will continue with the pound lower exchange rate and increasing cost of imported goods. This week, manufacturing, services and construction PMI report will help assess economic improvement prior to the monetary policy committee decision due on Thursday.

In Australia, inflation rate unexpectedly rose 0.7 percent in the third quarter, reducing the possibility of the RBA cutting rate in November. Even though, the RBA new governor Philip Lowe said the various factors suppressing inflation are expected to continue for a while, markets believe with the yearly inflation at 1.3 percent and an unemployment rate at 5.6 percent that it is unlikely the apex bank will loosen monetary policy this year, especially with high asset prices, particularly housing in Sydney and Melbourne, further easing could fuel borrowing among already heavily indebted Australian households. This week, the RBA is expected to maintain current 1.5 percent cash rate at its next meeting on Tuesday, while building approvals report is expected to dip further to -2.8 percent from previously declining -1.8 percent. Retail sales and trade balance will throw more lights to consumer spending and improvement in the manufacturing sector going forward.

Crude Oil, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is yet to finalize production cap, as Iraq is seeking a similar exemption to what Nigeria and Libya are likely to get when the organization meet again on November 20. While, Iran has disagreed with the OPEC’s methodology insisting the nation need to reach pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day, an increase of about 400,000 barrels a day from current levels — a situation that is threatening the viability of the Algiers accord.

According, non-OPEC producers are yet to join OPEC on production cap, suggesting they wanted the OPEC to solve its differences before making known their commitment to managing the global oil glut.

Brent crude dropped 0.6 percent on Friday to trade at $49.42 a barrel.

Overall, high volatility is expected in the month of November, considering the US presidential election is due on November 8 — with fresh huddles for the Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton to negate going forward. This week, investors will seek to digest a series of macro data and monetary policy decision due across key G7 nations. Also, commodities dependent currencies are likely to experience more volatility as OPEC seek to reach a consensus amid disagreement among its members. However, this week, my last week pick top my list, while monitoring series of events that will be unfolding across the financial market.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 13th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

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NAIRA - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Wednesday, June 12th, 2024.

This indicates a slight decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,490
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,480

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 12th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Published

on

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,500 and sold it at ₦1,490 on Thursday, June 6th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,480
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,470

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading

Forex

Cedi Falls to Record Low Due to Increased Dollar Demand from Importers

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inflation

The Ghanaian cedi has plummeted to a record low of 14.9335 per dollar as the increase in demand for US dollars by companies importing fuel, pharmaceuticals, and other fast-moving consumer goods put pressure on the currency.

This depreciation, observed by the close of trading in Accra, marks the cedi’s lowest level since at least 1994 when Bloomberg began tracking the data.

Since the start of the year, the cedi has declined by 20% against the US dollar, ranking it as the fourth-worst performing currency among approximately 150 tracked globally by Bloomberg, following the Egyptian pound, Nigerian naira, and Lebanese pound.

“Dollar demand from oil importers, the pharmaceuticals industry, and FMCG companies remains strong,” noted Samantha Singh-Jami, Africa Strategist at Rand Merchant Bank. “Although authorities have significantly increased foreign exchange reserves in recent months, there are still constraints on foreign exchange liquidity in the market.”

Ghana’s gross international reserves rose to $6.6 billion in April, the highest in over 19 months, as per data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank has been strategically managing these reserves to ensure sufficient market supply, including directly addressing some companies’ foreign exchange needs to alleviate the pressure on commercial banks.

This increase in reserves follows Ghana’s decision to halt servicing most of its external debt since December 2022.

The move was part of a debt restructuring effort to qualify for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Disbursements from the $3 billion IMF package and inflows from other multilateral and bilateral sources have bolstered the reserves.

However, the cedi’s decline is also attributed to a significant drop in cocoa export revenue, which has diminished foreign exchange supply. Revenue from cocoa shipments fell by 49% to $599 million from January through April.

The country’s cocoa output for the 2023-24 season is projected to be between 422,500 and 425,000 tons, which is only half of the initial estimate.

“The weakening of the cedi seems to reflect foreign exchange flow mismatches,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. “Foreign exchange demand recovered this year, though it has remained broadly constant in recent months, and continues to exceed supply.”

The combination of high demand for dollars by importers and reduced foreign exchange inflows has created a challenging environment for the cedi.

Despite efforts by the central bank to manage the situation, the currency continues to struggle under the weight of these economic pressures.

Economic Outlook

The Ghanaian government and central bank face a tough task in stabilizing the cedi amidst these challenges.

Ensuring adequate foreign exchange liquidity while addressing the structural issues in the economy, such as reliance on imports and fluctuating export revenues, will be crucial in reversing the cedi’s downward trend.

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