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Oil Prices Slide as Iraq Joins Others in Seeking an Exemption From OPEC Deal

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  • Oil Prices Slide as Iraq Joins Others in Seeking an Exemption From OPEC Deal

The prospect of a crude oil production cut from OPEC — tentatively agreed to late last month — may be scuppered before it’s even been inked if the latest headlines are anything to go by.

The latest source of unease comes from Iraq, which, over the weekend, joined the likes of Iran, Nigeria and Libya in seeking an exemption to cutting oil output for an OPEC deal, scheduled to be discussed at the group’s upcoming meeting in late November.

“Iraq is looking for an exclusion for an OPEC deal to cut oil production because of its current conflict with militants,” wrote Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy analyst at the Commonwealth Bank.

“The country claims it currently produces more than 4.7 million barrels per day, which could still rise further in coming months. Iraq’s estimate of its oil output is 500,000 barrels per day more than OPEC’s estimate and remains a point of contention as OPEC prepares to assign country-specific quotas on November 30.”

On Sunday, Iraq’s Oil Minister, Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, said the nation should be exempted from output restrictions as it was fighting a war with Islamic State, according to reports from Reuters.

“We are fighting a vicious war against IS,” Luaibi said in e briefing for reporters, adding that Iraq should get the same exemption as Nigeria and Libya.

Demonstrating the difficulty OPEC members may have in agreeing to set production quotas for individual members, al-Amiri said Iraq’s share of global production had been compromised by years of conflict, stating that it “should be producing 9 million [per day] if it wasn’t for the wars.”

“Some countries took our market share,” he told reporters on the reason why Iraq, to date, has refused to cut back output.

On the upcoming OPEC meeting scheduled for November 30, he said Iraq would make its case at OPEC “in a pleasant environment” to avoid tension.

While Iraqi officials wish to conduct negotiations within “a pleasant environment”, it underlines why a deal to limit production at this meeting may prove to be a bridge too far, says Dhar.

“The internal disagreement between OPEC members remains the primary obstacle to an OPEC deal being enforced.” he says.

Dhar also says that Russia, a non-OPEC member, has also refused to commit to cutting output to support an OPEC deal, stating that “Russia’s latest draft of its energy strategy points to a mild increase in oil output from 10.9mb/d currently to 11.1 mb/d by 2020”.

Writing earlier this month, Dhar suggested that given the unanswered questions surrounding the tentative OPEC agreement and the threat posed by the US shale oil industry, an OPEC’s agreement on November 30 “probably has more chance of failing than succeeding”.

In early Asian trade on Monday, front-month WTI futures have fallen by 0.6% to $US50.54 per barrel, mirroring a similar decline in Brent futures, the global benchmark price.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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