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Power Sector Loses N549b Yearly to Gas Constraints

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  • Power Sector Loses N549b Yearly to Gas Constraints

Nigeria’s power sector is losing an average of N549 billion yearly to gas supply challenges. The situation has continued to deprive the country of over 2,479 Mega Watts (MW) daily.

According to the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), the sector is losing an estimated N1.525 billion daily due to power generation constraints.

Further analysis showed that losing N1.525 billion daily to lack of gas to power plants, translated to N45.75 billion monthly.

NESI said, in its daily power generation analysis, that the country recorded line constraint of 394.5MW and high-frequency constraints of 303MW as at October 12, 2016. It explained that the revenue losses were calculated using a net, average and levelised tariff of N20/kWh. The agency stressed that in gross terms, this implies average end-user tariffs of circa N32/kWh inclusive of all Aggregate Technical and Commercial losses (ATC&C) and export sales if one adopts the assumptions contained in MYTO 2.1.

NESI, which noted that 85 per cent of the combined installed capacity of power plants in Nigeria was fuelled by gas, added that “availability of gas molecules is low due to insufficient production, economic disincentives, inadequate infrastructure and frequent vandalism.”

Corroborating NESI, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) stated that gas supply dropped from the 619 mmscfd in August 2015 to 405 mmscfd in July this year to generate an average power of about 1,911mw compared with 2,694mw generated in the same period of the previous year.

Specifically, power generation from gas-fired plants has been dropping steadily from 3,472mw in August 2015 to 2,017mw in May 2016 and to 1,911mw in July 2016.

On individual basis, Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc (EKEDP) is losing about N2.5 billion monthly in revenue.

The Chief Executive Officer, Oladele Amoda, said that the company used to generate above N4 billion monthly but it had dropped to about N1.5 billion.

“The drastic drop in power supply within our network has affected the company’s operation deeply. It has also impacted on the revenue and business activities significantly,’’ he said. According to him, the shortfall has adversely impacted on the ability of the company to make capital investment in metering, network expansion, equipment rehabilitation and replacement that are critical to service delivery.

Speaking on the solutions to gas supply crisis, the President, Nigerian Gas Association (NGA) and Chief Executive Officer of Oando Gas & Power, Bolaji Osunsanya, described the current challenge as man-made, noting that it would require a multifaceted approach to address the key drivers of the disruption.

The approach, he said, would include a combination of dialogue, an alignment of interests, applicable sanctions, and fair treatment.

“For one, the creation of an appropriately constituted and independently audited host community fund would be a way of further positioning the oil and gas communities as key stakeholders.

“In the interim, the government needs to increase the engagement and involvement of community leaders and influencers to create the necessary awareness regarding the crippling effects of the current disruptions in the Niger Delta on the environment and the local economy.

“The government must also consider other initiatives to expand the supply of gas into the market. Such an initiative would be tailored to ensure that the gas is deliberately developed for supply into the market.”

To the Managing Director of Frontier Oil Limited, Dada Thomas, Nigeria’s gas-to-power value chain itself is terminally sick in the emergency ward and infested with a number of crippling diseases chief among which are the primary diseases of vandalism of oil and gas facilities and sector illiquidity.

According to him, vandalism of oil and gas facilities is topical and has brought the Nigerian oil and gas industry and the power sector on its knees.

Thomas stated: “We are all witnesses to the impact that this is having in all sectors of the Nigerian society presently. Indeed the government has only achieved 51.3 per cent of its half-year budget target in 2016.

“This is because there has been vandalism of not only oil facilities, but gas facilities and pipelines. In the past six weeks, the third party-owned gas evacuation system through which our company – Frontier Oil Limited – transports gas has been sabotaged twice resulting in the loss of about 450 megawatts of power from the nation’s generation capacity thereby worsening an already dire situation.”

He emphasised the need for the Federal Government to introduce quick win initiatives that will put a stop to vandalism of oil and gas assets and ensure oil and gas production ramps back up to circa 2.2 million barrels of oil production per day and 5,000mw of power generation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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