Connect with us

Economy

Pace of Inflation Increase to Reduce in September

Published

on

Inflation - Investors King
  • Pace of Inflation Increase to Reduce in September

Following yesterday’s release of the data for Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics, which put the figures at 17.9 per cent (year-on-year), representing 0.24 percentage points higher than 17.6 per cent in August 2016, the pace of increase in inflation has further reduced.

This has confirmed the projections of analysts, who forecast the further narrowing of the gap of increase in CPI, which measures inflation, in the review month.

Earlier, analysts, in their estimations, had projected a slower pace of increase in the CPI in September. The projections were contained in the analyses done by Dunn Loren Merrifield Asset Management and Research Company Ltd (DLM) and Financial Derivatives Company Ltd (FDC).

For Dunn Loren Merrifield, CPI would increase to 17.93 per cent (year-on-year) in September 2016, representing an increase by 32 basis points from 17.61 per cent in the previous months, while FDC put the headline inflation for the review month at 18 per cent, an increase of 40 basis points. In fact, FDC has regarded the 18 per cent inflation rate as the highest in 11 years.

At 17.61 per cent, inflation for August had risen by 48 basis points from 17.13 per cent in July. When compared with the expected pace of increase in September, it is projected that the gap of increase would reduce.

According to DLM, “We estimate an increase in headline inflation to 17.93 percent year-on-year in September 2016; up by 32bps from 17.61 percent recorded in the preceding month.”

This in our view, DLM analysts explained, will be primarily driven by a faster rise in the food index. “Our model shows a movement in the food sub-index captured by “farm produce and processed foods” to 212.2 points in September 2016 up from 181.8 points in the corresponding period of the previous year. In addition, we expect a movement in the core sub-index to 204.0points up from 173.7points in September 2015. Hence, this translates into a food and core inflation of approximately 16.73 percent and 17.47 percent respectively in September 2016.”

They recalled that the increase in inflation in August was “supported by the rise in prices recorded in all classes of the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) which contribute to the index.”

“In particular, the divisions which recorded higher inflationary pressures during the month include: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel, education and transportation services.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the pace of price increases slowed marginally to 1.00 percent from 1.30 percent in July 2016,” they added.

The analysts also noted that food inflation up by 63bps even as core inflation increased for the seventh consecutive month. “The food index was higher by 16.43 percent up from 15.80 percent recorded in the previous month. This was despite the slower rise in prices recorded in the fruits, potatoes, yam and other tubers as well as oils and fats classes which weighed considerably on the overall sub-index.

“On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index remained relatively flat at 1.20 percent during the month.

Similarly, the core inflation index rose by 17.21 percent from 16.93 percent in July 2016 with the highest increases seen in solid fuels, vehicles parts, books & stationeries, clothing and other articles of clothing. On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index rose marginally to 0.90 percent from 1.20 per cent in the previous month.”

Nevertheless, FDC analysts, in giving their own position, noted that, “If the estimates of our model are accurate, it will be the highest level in 11 years,” but added that, “a change of 0.4 per cent indicates that the rate of increase is slowing.” As such, they submitted that, “If this trend continues, the direction of inflation is likely to reverse.”

On factors that are responsible for pressure on inflation, FDC said: “Diesel prices eased in September to an average of N190/ltr from August’s average of N193.53/ltr partly due to heavy rains and reduced attacks in the Niger Delta due to a ceasefire agreement. However, on the 24th of September the NDA defied the cease-fire agreement with an attack on the Bonny crude export line. PMS prices maintained an average of N143/ltr with some filling stations selling as low as N140/ltr.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

Published

on

Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

Continue Reading

Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Published

on

South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending