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Forex

RBNZ Still Expects to Cut Interest Rates to Fresh Record Low

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New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand’s central bank said it still expects to cut interest rates to a fresh record low to revive inflation.

“Interest rates are at multi-decade lows, and our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Reserve Bank Assistant Governor John McDermott said in a speech published on the bank’s website Tuesday. September quarter inflation data, due for release Oct. 18, “is expected to be low,” he said.

The comments reinforce bets that the RBNZ will lower its official cash rate by a quarter point to 1.75 percent at its next policy decision on Nov. 10. The bank is battling persistently weak inflation even as New Zealand’s economy grows at one of the fastest rates in the developed world and its housing market booms.

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline after the comments, falling to 70.64 U.S. cents at 4:50 p.m. in Wellington — the lowest since late July. Investors now see an 81 percent chance of a rate cut next month, up from 70 percent yesterday.

‘Robust Pace’

McDermott, whose speech was titled “Understanding Low Inflation in New Zealand,” said much of the weakness in price pressure can be attributed to global developments that have driven up the Kiwi dollar and suppressed the cost of imports.

“Strong net immigration and increased labor market participation have also boosted the supply potential of the economy, meaning that New Zealand has been able to grow at a robust pace without generating significant inflation,” he said.

The bank expects inflation to rebound in the December quarter to the bottom of its 1-3 percent target range. Currently running at 0.4 percent, inflation has been below the 2 percent midpoint the RBNZ targets for five years.

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has expressed concern that ongoing weak headline inflation may result in further declines in price expectations and create a deflationary spiral.

“Low inflation becomes a concern if it leads to the possibility of deflation,” McDermott said. “Although we do not see any significant risk of deflation in New Zealand, deflation carries important costs.”

Some economists argue the RBNZ is too fixated on weak inflation and risks fueling a housing bubble with even lower borrowing costs. House prices rose 14.3 percent in the year to September, and the average price in largest city Auckland has almost doubled since 2007 to more than NZ$1 million ($707,000).

The economy is also barreling along, expanding 3.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That compares with growth of 3.3 percent in Australia, 2.2 percent in the U.K and 1.3 percent in the U.S.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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Forex

Investors in Turmoil as Zimbabwe’s New Currency Wipes Out 330% Stock Market Gain

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Zimbabwe’s financial landscape has been rattled by the introduction of the new currency ZiG, spelling trouble for investors who had sought refuge in the stock market amidst economic turmoil.

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) All Share Index has plummeted by 99.95% since the rollout of ZiG on April 5. This has erased more than 330% gain recorded earlier this year.

The introduction of ZiG, short for Zimbabwe Gold, was intended to provide stability to the country’s currency and succeed the embattled Zimbabwean dollar, which had already lost 80% of its value in 2024 alone.

However, instead of instilling confidence, the new currency has sent shockwaves through the stock market, leaving investors grappling with the fallout.

Prior to the currency conversion, investors had flocked to the stock market as a safe haven amid the Zimbabwean dollar’s depreciation and soaring inflation rates, which had reached a seven-month high of 55.3% in March.

However, the abrupt introduction of ZiG has reversed their fortunes, plunging share prices and trading volumes as the market grapples with the transition.

Justin Bgoni, the CEO of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, attributed the market’s poor performance to a combination of factors, including delays in currency conversion by financial institutions and tight liquidity conditions.

He noted that investors were also hesitant and uncertain about the value of assets denominated in ZiG terms, further exacerbating the situation.

The conversion of share prices from the old currency to ZiG at a swap rate of 1 ZiG to 2,498 Zimbabwean dollars has led to a significant decline in trading volumes and revenues for brokerage firms.

Lloyd Mlotshwa, head of research at Harare-based brokerage IH Securities, highlighted that brokerages have experienced a substantial hit to earnings, with some seeing their revenues drop by at least 50%.

Stockbrokers in the capital, Harare, described the current market conditions as “a painful early winter,” marked by limited trading volumes and uncertainty. They anticipate broader ramifications across the stock market architecture, affecting not only stockbrokers but also custodians, government taxes, and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange itself.

Enock Rukarwa, a research and investment consultant at FBC Securities, said stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income and pointed out that the majority of the economy still transacting in US dollars.

He suggested that stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income.

Imara Asset Management, Zimbabwe’s largest independent brokerage overseeing $100 million in assets, warned of further upheaval in the coming months as share prices adjusted to ZiG.

The company’s CEO and CIO, John Legat and Shelton Sibanda, criticized the decision to adopt ZiG instead of US dollars, considering that many listed businesses operate in USD.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 23rd, 2024

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New Naira Notes

As of April 23rd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,250 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,290 and sell it at N1,280 on Monday, April 22nd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,250
  • Selling Rate: N1,240

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