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RBNZ Still Expects to Cut Interest Rates to Fresh Record Low

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New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand’s central bank said it still expects to cut interest rates to a fresh record low to revive inflation.

“Interest rates are at multi-decade lows, and our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Reserve Bank Assistant Governor John McDermott said in a speech published on the bank’s website Tuesday. September quarter inflation data, due for release Oct. 18, “is expected to be low,” he said.

The comments reinforce bets that the RBNZ will lower its official cash rate by a quarter point to 1.75 percent at its next policy decision on Nov. 10. The bank is battling persistently weak inflation even as New Zealand’s economy grows at one of the fastest rates in the developed world and its housing market booms.

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline after the comments, falling to 70.64 U.S. cents at 4:50 p.m. in Wellington — the lowest since late July. Investors now see an 81 percent chance of a rate cut next month, up from 70 percent yesterday.

‘Robust Pace’

McDermott, whose speech was titled “Understanding Low Inflation in New Zealand,” said much of the weakness in price pressure can be attributed to global developments that have driven up the Kiwi dollar and suppressed the cost of imports.

“Strong net immigration and increased labor market participation have also boosted the supply potential of the economy, meaning that New Zealand has been able to grow at a robust pace without generating significant inflation,” he said.

The bank expects inflation to rebound in the December quarter to the bottom of its 1-3 percent target range. Currently running at 0.4 percent, inflation has been below the 2 percent midpoint the RBNZ targets for five years.

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has expressed concern that ongoing weak headline inflation may result in further declines in price expectations and create a deflationary spiral.

“Low inflation becomes a concern if it leads to the possibility of deflation,” McDermott said. “Although we do not see any significant risk of deflation in New Zealand, deflation carries important costs.”

Some economists argue the RBNZ is too fixated on weak inflation and risks fueling a housing bubble with even lower borrowing costs. House prices rose 14.3 percent in the year to September, and the average price in largest city Auckland has almost doubled since 2007 to more than NZ$1 million ($707,000).

The economy is also barreling along, expanding 3.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That compares with growth of 3.3 percent in Australia, 2.2 percent in the U.K and 1.3 percent in the U.S.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Weakens to N1,706 Per Dollar in Black Market, Sells N1,654 Officially

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira weakened to N1,700 against the United States Dollar on the black market on Wednesday and extended this outcome further in the official foreign exchange (FX) market.

In the black market, the Naira lost N12.63 or 0.75 percent against the greenback to close at N1,706.43 to the US Dollar compared to N1,693.80/$1 it closed on Tuesday.

The Naira also fell by 0.06 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) extending the weakening of the local currency which started earlier in the week

The local currency exchanged for the US Dollar at N1,654.09/$1, sliding by N1.07 versus N1,653.02/$1 that it closed at the previous session on Tuesday.

The FX market has been volatile as recent efforts to bring some stability to the market through a series of auctions held by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for official dealers and Bureau de Change (BDCs) have not been able to tackle high seasonal demand.

With the year entering into the last two months, high demand has returned to the market and all eyes will be on what the CBN will do in that regard.

Data showed that there was a decrease in daily supply as the midweek turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $136.68 million indicating that the session’s turnover made a 22.4 percent slide, indicating that there was a drop of $39.47 million compared to $176.15 million that was published in the last trading session.

The Naira also witnessed drops against the Pound Sterling and the Euro. It declined N9.86 on the British currency to wrap the session at N2,147.22/£1 from N2,137.36/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

In the same trend, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency dropped N9.67 and closed at N1,789.93/€1 versus N1,780.26/€1.

The Naira also dropped in its value against the British currency in the black market as it fell by N8.86 to sell at N2,212.37/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,203.51/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it depreciated N5.71 to quote at N1,844.79/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,839.08/€1.

Meanwhile, the local currency further depreciated N3.54 to close at N1,233.01 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Monday’s N1,226.55 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Strengthens in Parallel Market Amid Official FX Depreciation

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New Naira Notes

The Naira closed strong in the parallel market but weakened further in the official foreign exchange (FX) market as seasonal demand continued to affect the currency despite the fresh sale of FX by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In the parallel market, the Naira gained N5.17 against the greenback to close at N1,693.80 to the US Dollar compared to N1,698.97/$1 it closed on Monday.

However, the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), which serves as the official foreign exchange market, showed the Naira recorded a 3.1 percent depreciation against the US Dollar to N1,653.02.

At the previous session on Monday, the Naira closed lower at N1,603.16/$1, indicating a further decrease of N49.86 at the approved market.

A turnover of $176.15 million was on record at the market, according to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited. This indicated a $183.07 million or 50.9 percent decline versus the $359.22 million quoted recently.

The Naira also gained in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the official market by N9.73 to sell at N2,203.51/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,213.24/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N6.21 to quote at N1,839.08/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,845.29/€1.

Meanwhile, the local currency depreciated 74 Kobo to close at N1,226.56 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Monday’s N1,225.82 per CAD.

At the official market, the Naira witnessed gains against the British Currency and the Euro in the Tuesday session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made a gain of N16.54 to wrap the session at N2,137.36/£1 from N2,153.90/£1 that it sold at the previous session and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,780.26/€1 versus N1,791.06/€1, indicating an N10.80 appreciation.

The CBN has not injected fresh FX sales into the market for yet another week after it promised to always prop the market.

Speaking in the US on Tuesday at the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank summit, the Nigerian Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun noted that Nigeria needed to boost its oil production to fix its FX issues.

“The key about the foreign exchange market really is supply and as you know we are an oil-producing country, we just need to get our oil production up and that will deal with that issue of foreign exchange supply and pressure on foreign exchange anytime there are large flows.”

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Naira

Naira Weakens Against Dollar at Official, Parallel FX Markets

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New Naira notes

The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and the parallel market on Monday, signifying more worries for the local currency.

At the official market – NAFEM – the local currency sold for the US Dollar at N1,603.16/$1 as it recorded a 0.15 percent or N2.38 drop versus N1,600.78/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Friday.

This occurred as supply rose at the opening session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $359.22 million indicating that the session’s turnover went higher by 2.4 percent or $8.50 million compared to $350.72 million that was published the day before.

At the unofficial market, the domestic currency closed at N1,698.97 to the US Dollar, a drop of N8.15 compared to N1,690.82/$1 it closed during the Friday trading session.

The weakening of the Naira is happening as the nation’s external reserves continue to swell due to lower US Dollar volume sales to boost liquidity in the official FX market.

Latest data showed the balance in Nigeria’s foreign reserves inched to about $39 billion as CBN data revealed that Nigeria now has $38.992 billion as gross balance in the nation’s external reserves.

The CBN has not made do with its promise to prop up the market as it appears to have halted its weekly FX sales

In a different trend, the domestic currency witnessed a flat outcome against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s opening session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 and N1,800.79/€1 on the Euro.

In the parallel market, the local currency depreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling by N11.69 to sell at N2,213.25/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,201.56/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it lost N10 to quote at N1,845.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,835.29/€1.

The local currency also depreciated further by N8.64 to close at N1,225.82 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Friday’s N1,217.18 per CAD.

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