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Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14
  • Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14

The US macro data showed remarkable improvement last week, with economic activity in the services sector rising as high as 57.1 in September, the highest in almost a year. While unemployment claims improved by 5,000 to 249,000 — the lowest since April, and 83 consecutive weeks that unemployment benefits will be below 300,000.

Although, labor market added fewer jobs (156,000) than expected in September, the economy continued to grow on so many levels. For instance, the drop in jobs created in the private sector in September was because the US economy is nearing full employment, hence, job growth is expected to slow. Two, the increase in Trade deficit is also as a result of the surge in imports of capital goods and record purchases of services, fees to broadcast the Olympic Games from oversea, which outweigh exports. This should normalize now that the Olympic Games has ended and the manufacturing sector (51.5) has picked up. Likewise, the increase in the unemployment rate to 5 percent from 4.9 percent recorded in August was due to surge in participation rate.

Again, average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent to 2.6 percent on a yearly basis, indicating that employers are hesitant to fire workers amid a tightening labor market. These are the reasons I think the Friday dip in the US dollar against all the major currencies is temporary, and I expect the greenback to rebound this week as investors digest the data.

In the UK, the pound plunged to 1.1991 against the US dollar on Friday, after the Prime Minister Theresa May comments on the needs for the U.K. to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty as soon as March 2017, and shun request from financial institutions to consider them in the Brexit agreement as they claimed Brexit could cost banks about £40 billion in revenue and wipe-off as much as 70,000 jobs from the U.K. with about £10 billion in tax revenue.

While, the U.K. business sentiment is presently on the downside, the construction sector (52.3) rebounded in September as companies return to growth, and activities in the manufacturing sector (55.4) and non-manufacturing sector (52.6) picked up, but industrial output (0.2%) expanded below 0.4 percent predicted. Yet, the highest increase since Brexit. Again, the drop in the Pound is expected to further boost exports and tourist patronage while prices of imported goods will surge (bolstering inflation).

However, if Prime Minister Theresa May failed to curb her approach to Brexit, and the European leaders, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, continued to insist on no special access to European single market, things could worsen henceforth as European businesses in the UK scramble for safety by moving overseas to cut costs and sustain profitability in the advent of an increase in taxes.

In Japan, the yen halted its 8-day decline against the US dollar on Friday, following a 3.3 percent drop in its value since September 28. Even though, the manufacturing sector expanded 50.4, an increase of 0.1 above preceding month, it is uncertain if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) effort to boost its manufacturing sector and pressure consumer prices by steepen its yield curve has started materializing. Nevertheless, the increase in the odds of the Fed raising rates in December is aiding BOJ monetary stance, however, the BOJ needs to expand its stimulus to sustain the current decline.

Next week, investors will look to deduce Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting and retail sales for possible clues on the next interest rate hike. This week, the EURUSD, AUDUSD and last week NZDUSD top my list.

EURUSD

The US dollar plunged on Friday against the Euro-single currency, following weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report. While the job report was below expectation, the US economy continued to recover and create more jobs. For the past seven weeks, this pair has failed to break and sustain 1.1233 resistance. Also, considering Euro-area uncertainties post-Brexit and the dollar renewed strength as the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates in December increase, this pair will likely drop further this week.

Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14

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Technically, since the dark cloud cover pattern was formed 7-weeks ago below the ascending channel started since November 2015. This pair has confirmed its bearish stance, but the surge in global risks and uncertainty has impacted the volume of trade as investors are risk averse. This week, as long as price remains below 1.1233 I am bearish on EURUSD with 1.1019 as the first target. A sustained break should open up 1.0821 support as the second target.

AUDUSD

Even though, Australia’s consumer spending surged 0.4 percent in August and building approvals was better than expected. The Aussie dollar declined against the US dollar, indicating that the market is gradually favouring lower Aussie dollar ahead of the Fed rate decision. Likewise, the Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly said higher foreign exchange rate will damp its current progress – especially its low inflation.

Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14

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This week, as long as price remains below 0.7673 resistance, I am bearish on this pair with 0.7505 as the first target and 0.7379 as the second target. Click August 22-26 weekly outlook for a more detail explanation on the Aussie dollar.

Last week Recap

NZDUSD

This week, I remain bearish on this pair as explained last week here.

Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14

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While, I will be standing aside on EURAUD this week, after gaining 131 pips before it retreated. This is to assess the Euro-area economic outlook going forward.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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CBN Resumes Forex Sales as Naira Hits N1,570/$ at Parallel Market

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has resumed the sale of foreign exchange to eligible Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The decision was after Naira dipped to N1,570 per dollar in the parallel market,

CBN announced that it would sell dollars to BDCs at a rate of N1,450 per dollar. This decision aims to address distortions in the retail end of the forex market and support the demand for invisible transactions.

Following the CBN’s intervention, the dollar, which recently traded as low as 1,640 per dollar, has shown signs of stabilization.

The apex bank’s action is expected to inject liquidity and restore confidence among market participants.

BDC operators have welcomed the move. Mohammed Magaji, an operator in Abuja, noted that the dollar was selling at 1,630 per dollar.

He emphasized the market’s volatile nature but expressed optimism about the CBN’s intervention.

Aminu Gwadebe, President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, attributed the naira’s decline to acute shortages, speculative activities, and increased demand due to recent duty waivers.

He praised the CBN’s action as a necessary step to alleviate market pressures.

The CBN’s efforts include selling $20,000 to each eligible BDC, with a directive to limit profit margins to 1.5% above the purchase rate.

This strategy aims to ensure that end-users receive fair rates and to curb inflationary pressures.

The CBN’s ongoing reforms seek to achieve a market-determined exchange rate for the naira. As the naira continues to navigate turbulent waters, stakeholders remain hopeful that these measures will lead to a more stable and liquid forex market.

Market analysts suggest that sustained interventions and increased access to foreign exchange could help reverse the naira’s downward trend.

The CBN’s actions demonstrate a commitment to tackling the challenges facing the foreign exchange market and supporting Nigeria’s economic stability.

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Finance

Nigeria’s FX Inflows Leap 57% as CBN Steers Economic Confidence

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U.S dollar - Investors King

Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) inflows have surged by 57% over the past year, signaling newfound stability for the Naira.

Analysts attribute this growth to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) consistent policies, which have bolstered investor confidence and enhanced market stability in Africa’s most populous nation.

Data from the CBN reveals that FX inflows rose to $8.86 billion in February 2024, compared to $5.66 billion in February 2023.

This increase is a testament to the effectiveness of the CBN’s strategic measures. Similarly, foreign exchange turnover skyrocketed 180% year-on-year to $240.64 million in February 2024.

“The upsurge in FX inflows reflects the positive impacts of increased interest rates and the relative stability of the exchange rate,” said Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of financial institutions ratings at Agusto Consulting.

He noted that high interest rates in Nigeria are attracting investors seeking better returns compared to developed countries.

The CBN has actively engaged with foreign investors, addressing concerns and providing insights into monetary policy actions.

Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN governor, emphasized that investor confidence has been restored, partly due to the bank’s clearance of a $7 billion foreign exchange backlog.

New investments into Nigeria also increased significantly, reaching $1.24 billion in February 2024, compared to $0.33 billion in January 2024. This uptick is indicative of a more stable and attractive investment climate.

Analysts point out that improved oil production and higher global oil prices have significantly boosted FX earnings.

Also, government policies aimed at attracting foreign investment, along with strategic management of the exchange rate, have played pivotal roles in this economic revival.

The CBN’s efforts to diversify the economy and boost non-oil exports are starting to yield results.

Increased diaspora remittances, facilitated by better official channels and incentives, have further contributed to the rise in FX inflows.

While challenges remain, the positive trend in FX inflows suggests a more robust and stable economy, encouraging further investment.

Consistent and transparent economic policies are expected to enhance investor trust, stabilizing the Naira and fostering a more favorable exchange rate environment.

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Naira

Naira Hits Five-Month Low Amid Dollar Demand Surge

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

Nigeria’s naira extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive day as it slipped to its weakest level since March despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) interventions.

The naira closed at 1,577.29 per dollar on Monday, down from Friday’s N1,563.8 per dollar on FMDQ.

This decline comes despite the CBN’s efforts to stabilize the currency by injecting $122.7 million through dollar sales into the market.

However, analysts argue that these amounts were insufficient to balance the robust domestic demand for the greenback.

“The CBN has been in the market selling $50 million from time to time, which is not enough,” commented Carlo Morelli, senior portfolio manager at Azimut Investment SA.

Morelli attributes the persistent pressure on the naira to capital outflows and a lack of investor confidence in the currency, despite the central bank’s commendable efforts in tightening monetary policy and reducing naira liquidity.

Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso has aggressively raised interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation and stabilize the naira.

The benchmark borrowing rate now stands at 26.25%, following an increase of 14.75 percentage points since May 2022.

However, the currency has weakened by approximately 70% against the dollar since exchange-rate controls were eased last year.

“Restoring foreign exchange broad confidence is the last step, and the huge volatility in May delayed the return to normalcy,” Morelli added.

“Many foreign investors are still waiting for more evidence of stability before considering Nigeria investable.”

The naira’s decline makes it the second-worst performing currency tracked by Bloomberg in 2024, trailing only the Lebanese pound.

The recent depreciation has been fueled by both seasonal dollar demand and ongoing investor skepticism.

The central bank’s next policy decision, set for July 23, is expected to address these issues. Monday’s data showing annual inflation quickened to 34.2% in June suggests that another rate hike might be on the horizon.

In a bid to bolster the naira, the central bank has increased Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves to $35 billion as of July 8, the highest level since May 30, 2023.

This boost is attributed to recent loans from the World Bank and the African Export-Import Bank.

Omobola Adu, an analyst at BancTrust & Co. Investment Bank, noted that recent pressure on the naira has also stemmed from corporates and individuals preparing for foreign vacations.

“Boosting the supply of FX into the country remains crucial for the government to alleviate pressure on the naira,” Adu stated.

He suggested that a eurobond or local dollar bond sale later this year, along with increased support from multilateral institutions, could help shore up reserves.

Despite these challenges, Central Bank Governor Cardoso remains optimistic, asserting that the worst of the currency’s volatility is over.

He reiterated this sentiment on Thursday in Lagos, addressing business leaders and highlighting improvements in crude output and capital inflows as positive signs.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, relies heavily on oil sales, which account for at least 80% of its export earnings.

The country’s combined crude oil and condensate output rose to 1.5 million barrels per day in June, the highest since February, according to the upstream petroleum regulatory commission.

“While the naira may be undervalued, for the naira to stabilize and perhaps regain ground, large portfolio and capital inflows are needed,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in London.

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