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European Stocks Fall on Central Bank Angst

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European Stocks
  • European Stocks Fall With Emerging Markets

European stocks fell with emerging markets as the prospect of monetary policy turning less accommodative in the world’s biggest economies damped appetite for higher-yielding assets.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped for the first time in seven days and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index halted a two-day rally after report an informal consensus was building in the European Central Bank that quantitative easing will need to be tapered once a decision is taken to end the program. Spanish and Italian bonds extended a selloff in euro-area debt markets, while Treasuries held a three-day drop after Federal Reserve officials talked up the chance of a U.S. interest-rate increase in 2016. The pound touched a five-year low against the euro while oil rallied after data indicated American stockpiles shrank.

Funds poured into riskier assets this year as supportive monetary policies in the world’s biggest economies spurred demand for higher-yielding investments. That’s left markets vulnerable to a selloff as central banks in Europe and Japan show signs of wanting to dial back their unprecedented stimulus and the case for a U.S. interest-rate increase builds. When the Fed indicated it was reducing asset purchases in 2013, it sparked a so-called taper tantrum leading to a surge in bond yields.

“The central bank may be trying to test the market, see how it reacts to this sort of news and lift some of the pressure we’ve had on the banking sector,” said William Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Plc’s wealth-management unit in London. “They may have come to the realization that monetary policy isn’t helping the banking sector, which may ultimately make it counter-productive.”

Stocks

While the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1 percent at 11:53 a.m. in London, a gauge of banks was little changed. Yield-sensitive industries including telecommunications, utilities and real estate were among the biggest decliners on the Stoxx 600. The number of shares changing hands was about 18 percent higher than the 30-day average.

Tesco Plc helped limit losses among retailers, jumping 13 percent after reporting first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates. Delta Lloyd NV rallied 29 percent after NN Group offered to buy the company for 2.4 billion euros ($2.7 billion) in cash to boost scale in the pensions and insurance sectors. NN Group slid 0.8 percent.

Data Wednesday showed the euro region’s economy is losing steam, with a Purchasing Manages’ Index for the manufacturing and services sector falling in September from August.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4 percent following a 1.3 percent advance over the previous two days. Shares in Asia led losses, with the Philippines and Indonesia dropping more than 0.9 percent.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong rose for a third day, advancing 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng Index added 0.6 percent, with trading volumes 27 percent less than the 30-day average amid a week-long holiday in mainland China.

S&P 500 Index futures were little changed after U.S. stocks fell 0.4 percent on Tuesday. Among economic data scheduled for Wednesday, the focus will be on the ADP Research Institute’s employment figures, services and manufacturing reports, as well as orders for durable goods.

Currencies

The pound touched a five-year low versus the euro, staying weaker even as a report showed the services industry grew more than economists forecast last month, in another sign of the economy’s resilience following the June vote to leave the European Union. Sterling was 0.2 percent weaker at 88.22 pence per euro.

The British currency has tumbled against all of its major counterparts this week after Prime Minister Theresa May signaled the U.K. is prepared to surrender membership of Europe’s single market. May is due to speak again on Wednesday at the conclusion of her Conservative Party’s annual conference.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, after gaining 0.6 percent in the last session. The yen fluctuated following a 1.2 percent drop versus the greenback on Tuesday.

New Zealand’s dollar sank to a seven-week low after global dairy prices fell. Average prices for whole milk powder, the nation’s chief farm export, fell 3.8 percent at Tuesday’s GlobalDairyTrade auction.

Bonds

Spain’s 10-year bond yield climbed three basis points to 1.00 percent as traders digested the potential for an ECB taper. Italian yields rose three basis points to 1.34 percent, a day after the nation sold 50-year bonds for the first time. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields increased three basis points to minus 0.02 percent.

The yield Treasury 10-year notes rose one basis point to 1.70 percent, after climbing six basis points on Tuesday. Following hawkish comments from Fed officials, the odds of an interest rate increase this year have risen to 61 percent, up about 11 percentage points from last week, though futures indicate only a 21 percent chance of a move coming when the next meeting concludes on Nov. 2.

Richmond Fed chief Jeffrey Lacker may argue for the second time this week in favor of an interest-rate rise when he speaks Wednesday. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said borrowing costs could be raised as early as November and his counterparts for Richmond and Cleveland spoke over the last two days in favor of a hike.

Emerging-market bonds fell relative to their developed-nation counterparts. The emerging-market debt yield premium over U.S. Treasuries widened two basis points to 329, rising from lowest since Sept. 8, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.

Commodities

Crude oil rose as much as 1.8 percent to $49.53 a barrel in New York, the highest since June 30. Inventories dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report, before official data on Wednesday that’s forecast to show stockpiles increased. A deal between major producers could trim output by 1.2 million barrels a day and boost prices by as much as $15 a barrel, according to Venezuela’s oil minister.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.4 percent, after a 3.3 percent plunge in the last session that marked its steepest slide in a year. Industrial metals declined in London, with copper, nickel and lead declining for a third day.

“It does appear that the market is a bit jittery over prospects for a global exit from central bank stimulus,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “For metals there’s a concern that the main impact would be a stronger dollar” as most commodities are priced in the currency, he said.

Natural gas for same-day delivery rose 13 percent in London after gaining 29 percent on Tuesday as a cold snap is expected to boost demand for the heating fuel.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Mega Refinery in Nigeria Seeks Millions of Barrels of US Crude Amid Output Challenges

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Dangote Refinery

The Dangote Mega Refinery, situated near Lagos, Nigeria, is embarking on an ambitious plan to procure millions of barrels of US crude over the next year.

The refinery, established by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest individual, has issued a term tender for the purchase of 2 million barrels a month of West Texas Intermediate Midland crude for a duration of 12 months, commencing in July.

This development revealed through a document obtained by Bloomberg, represents a shift in strategy for the refinery, which has opted for US oil imports due to constraints in the availability and reliability of Nigerian crude.

Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at Citac, an energy consultancy specializing in the African downstream sector, emphasized the allure of US crude for Dangote’s refinery.

Georgieva highlighted the challenges associated with sourcing Nigerian crude, including insufficient supply, unreliability, and sometimes unavailability.

In contrast, US WTI offers reliability, availability, and competitive pricing, making it an attractive option for Dangote.

Nigeria’s struggles to meet its OPEC+ quota and sustain its crude production capacity have been ongoing for at least a year.

Despite an estimated production capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day, the country only managed to pump about 1.45 million barrels a day of crude and liquids in April.

Factors contributing to this decline include crude theft, aging oil pipelines, low investment, and divestments by oil majors operating in Nigeria.

To address the challenge of local supply for the Dangote refinery, Nigeria’s upstream regulators have proposed new draft rules compelling oil producers to prioritize selling crude to domestic refineries.

This regulatory move aims to ensure sufficient local supply to support the operations of the 650,000 barrel-a-day Dangote refinery.

Operating at about half capacity presently, the Dangote refinery has capitalized on the opportunity to secure cheaper US oil imports to fulfill up to a third of its feedstock requirements.

Since the beginning of the year, the refinery has been receiving monthly shipments of about 2 million barrels of WTI Midland from the United States.

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Oil Prices Hold Steady as U.S. Demand Signals Strengthening

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices maintained a steady stance in the global market as signals of strengthening demand in the United States provided support amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, holds at $82.79 per barrel, a marginal increase of 4 cents or 0.05%.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a slight uptick of 4 cents to $78.67 per barrel.

The stability in oil prices came in the wake of favorable data indicating a potential surge in demand from the U.S. market.

An analysis by MUFG analysts Ehsan Khoman and Soojin Kim pointed to a broader risk-on sentiment spurred by signs of receding inflationary pressures in the U.S., suggesting the possibility of a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

This prospect could alleviate the strength of the dollar and render oil more affordable for holders of other currencies, consequently bolstering demand.

Despite a brief dip on Wednesday, when Brent crude touched an intra-day low of $81.05 per barrel, the commodity rebounded, indicating underlying market resilience.

This bounce-back was attributed to a notable decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, gasoline, and distillates.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a reduction of 2.5 million barrels in crude inventories to 457 million barrels for the week ending May 10, surpassing analysts’ consensus forecast of 543,000 barrels.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM, underscored the significance of increased refinery activity, which contributed to the decline in inventories and hinted at heightened demand.

This development sparked a turnaround in price dynamics, with earlier losses being nullified by a surge in buying activity that wiped out all declines.

Moreover, U.S. consumer price data for April revealed a less-than-expected increase, aligning with market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The prospect of monetary easing further buoyed market sentiment, contributing to the stability of oil prices.

However, amidst these market dynamics, geopolitical tensions persisted in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Palestinian factions. Israeli military operations in Gaza remained ongoing, with ceasefire negotiations reaching a stalemate mediated by Qatar and Egypt.

The situation underscored the potential for geopolitical flare-ups to impact oil market sentiment.

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Shell’s Bonga Field Hits Record High Production of 138,000 Barrels per Day in 2023

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oil field

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) has achieved a significant milestone as its Bonga field, Nigeria’s first deep-water development, hit a record high production of 138,000 barrels per day in 2023.

This represents a substantial increase when compared to 101,000 barrels per day produced in the previous year.

The improvement in production is attributed to various factors, including the drilling of new wells, reservoir optimization, enhanced facility management, and overall asset management strategies.

Elohor Aiboni, Managing Director of SNEPCo, expressed pride in Bonga’s performance, stating that the increased production underscores the commitment of the company’s staff and its continuous efforts to enhance production processes and maintenance.

Aiboni also acknowledged the support of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and SNEPCo’s co-venture partners, including TotalEnergies Nigeria Limited, Nigerian Agip Exploration, and Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Limited.

The Bonga field, which commenced production in November 2005, operates through the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, with a capacity of 225,000 barrels per day.

Located 120 kilometers offshore, the FPSO has been a key contributor to Nigeria’s oil production since its inception.

Last year, the Bonga FPSO reached a significant milestone by exporting its 1-billionth barrel of oil, further cementing its position as a vital asset in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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