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China Seeking to Succeed Where Japan Failed in Yuan Global Push

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Yuan

As China’s yuan takes the first steps toward becoming a global reserve currency, Japan offers a lesson on how hard it is to rival the dollar’s supremacy.

The Japanese yen’s share of global reserves reached a record 8.5 percent in 1991 as the nation’s post-War industrial boom made its economy the world’s second-largest. But its economic decline soon resulted in its clout shrinking as the euro gained ground and the greenback re-asserted its dominance. While the yen is still ranked third for trading and fourth for payments, it now accounts for just 4 percent of world reserves, compared with the dollar’s 64 percent and the yuan’s 1 percent.

The yen’s failure to dent the U.S. currency’s primacy illustrates the precarious mix of policy, political will and prosperity needed for the yuan to come even close to dislodging the dollar. Like China, Japan struggled with the degree of openness needed to promote global use of its currency. By the time its markets became more accessible to foreigners, the bursting of its asset bubbles and consequent “lost decade” — coinciding with China’s dizzying rise — relegated the yen to its also-ran status as a reserve currency.

“The main lesson is that it is impossible to have a major reserve currency like the dollar or euro unless you are willing to sustain a high degree of financial market openness over a very long period of time,” said Arthur Kroeber, the Beijing-based founding partner and managing director at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.

Like the yuan, the yen’s march toward liberalization was gradual and marked with ambivalence. Under the Bretton Woods system after World War II, the Japanese currency was fixed at 360 a dollar, before a trading band was introduced in 1959 to make it slightly more flexible. For three decades, all capital flows except those explicitly permitted were banned, making it easier for the government to achieve policy goals.

It wasn’t until 1998 that approval or notification requirements for financial transactions and outward direct investments were abolished. The push to internationalize the yen initially came from the U.S., which wanted greater global use to fuel appreciation and reduce Japan’s trade surplus with America.

China’s situation now isn’t dissimilar. Having thrived on an economic model of closed borders and accumulation of reserves for decades, its capital account is still closed, individuals’ foreign-exchange conversions are capped and inter-country money flows occur mainly through specific programs. Policy makers have tightened controls on outflows in the past year after the yuan’s August 2015 devaluation exacerbated depreciation pressures. The currency was little changed Friday at 6.6699 per dollar.

Lowering the hurdles to create a true freely traded currency might risk a flight of capital during times of weakness, a concept China doesn’t always seem comfortable with.

‘Exorbitant Privilege’

“Everyone wants this thing called ‘exorbitant privilege,’ but if you try to give it to them, they get furious and they tell you to stop,” said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. “Countries like China that are running huge surpluses because of insufficient domestic demand — basically they are creating the role of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.”

The term “exorbitant privilege,” coined by former French finance minister Valery Giscard D’Estaing in 1965, referred to the benefits the U.S. received for the dollar’s status.

Daniel McDowell, a Syracuse University political science assistant professor who studies international finance, made the point that the appeal of a nation’s sovereign debt market plays a key role in a currency’s internationalization. The yen never became a major reserve currency because its government bonds weren’t as attractive or as plentiful as the U.S., he said.

Overseas investors held 10 percent of Japan’s sovereign debt and treasury bills at end-June, central bank data show, compared with 41 percent for the U.S. at end-July, according to Bloomberg calculations. While the figure is around 1 percent for Chinese bonds, the nation has since February allowed all types of medium- to long-term investors to access the interbank market. Overseas funds increased their holdings of Chinese onshore bonds in June by 47.7 billion yuan to 764 billion yuan, according to latest available data from the People’s Bank of China.

China’s economic might could give it an advantage. It accounts for 18 percent of the world’s output on a purchasing power parity basis, more than Japan ever did, according to International Monetary Fund estimates going back to 1980. Despite making up just 1.1 percent of global reserves in a 2014 IMF survey, the yuan’s weight in the SDR basket from Saturday will be 10.9 percent, trumping the yen and sterling.

KKR & Co. and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos are among those who have compared China’s current economic slowdown with Japan’s woes after its real-estate and stock bubbles burst in the early 1990s. Asia’s largest economy is now coping with the slowest growth in more than two decades, while its housing market is looking overheated a year after a $5 trillion rout in its equity market.

“When the Japanese economy was booming, property and financial bubbles formed,” said Ha Jiming, Hong Kong-based chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s private wealth unit in China. “Therefore, the yen didn’t become a very important international currency. That being said, China’s economy is bigger in size compared to Japan, so the renminbi may still have the potential to become a major currency. Eventually it will depend on how China can avoid a Japan-like boom-and-bust cycle.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, September 17, 2021

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Friday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N565, N775 and N655 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 560/570* 763/770* 647/655* 70/75 430/440 310/330
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 555/565 760/775 640/655
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
9/16/2021 US DOLLAR 409.57 410.07 410.57
9/16/2021 POUNDS STERLING 566.763 567.4549 568.1468
9/16/2021 EURO 482.0229 482.6114 483.1998
9/16/2021 SWISS FRANC 442.6827 443.2231 443.7635
9/16/2021 YEN 3.7434 3.748 3.7526
9/16/2021 CFA 0.7191 0.7291 0.7391
9/16/2021 WAUA 583.3071 584.0192 584.7313
9/16/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 63.5338 63.6118 63.6898
9/16/2021 RIYAL 109.2012 109.3345 109.4678
9/16/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 28.3101 28.3446 28.3792

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

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Forex

CBN Goes After Abokifx, Freezes Bank Accounts for Publishing Black Market Rates

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Abokifx - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks to freeze all the bank accounts associated with AbokiFX and its owner, Oniwinde Olusegun Adedotun, for publishing foreign exchange rates other than the rates determined by the CBN.

The apex bank had warned publishers to desist from publishing forex rates determined by the unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market, where speculators and hoarders largely manipulate the nation’s foreign exchange rates as seen in recent weeks.

In an email to publishers by the NGN Project, presumably acting on behalf of the CBN, the organisation had quoted section 11 sub-section 1(c) and 2 (a,b) of the National Economic Intelligence Committee Act of 2004 that stated “it shall be an offence for any person, association of individuals or body corporate (whether public or private) to publish or cause to be published exchange and interest rates other than the rates determined by the Bank from time to time.”

The Act stipulated N100,000 fine or imprisonment for a term of two years or both for individual and N500,000 fine and suspension or revocation of certificate of registration or cerificate of incorporation for association or individuals or corporate body.

This was after the central bank halted the sale of forex to bureau de change operators after accusing them of aiding the activities of criminals at the unregulated black market and been a channel for illicit financial flow. The move, which resulted in chronic forex scarcity and all time high foreign exchange rate, has forced the apex bank to go after publishers in effort to discourage people from patronising the black market and to force Nigerians to reject the unreasonable exchange rate of N567 to a United States Dollar and approach their banks for N412 to N415 per US Dollars.

Despite covid-19 challenges and limited forex generation, the apex bank has continued to support the Nigerian Naira and go after forex manipulators.

The NGN Project had described AbokiFX.com and its owner has criminals ‘committing crimes against the Nigerian state’. See the email CBN sent to publishers below.

 

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, September 16, 2021

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Naira - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Thursday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N555, N765 and N645 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

 

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