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Stock Market Maintains Positive Momentum, Closes Firmer

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NSE

The stock market maintained a positive momentum to close firmer last week despite apprehensions that the retention of the high monetary indicators by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may impact negatively on the market. The NSE ASI appreciated by 1.39 per cent to 28,247.07, thereby closing in the green for the second consecutive week.  The market capitalisation closed higher at N9.703 trillion.

Similarly, all other Indices finished higher during the week, with the exception of the NSE-Main Board Index, NSE Banking Index and the NSE Consumer Goods Index that depreciated by 0.14 per cent, 0.73 per cent and 0.53 per cent respectively, while the NSE ASeM and NSE Insurance Indices closed flat.

Analysts at Afrinvest said: “Whilst a tight monetary policy environment prevails (post-MPC decision), we perceive frail sentiment towards equities may persist as investors continue to take advantage of higher yields in the fixed income market. Nonetheless, we expect the broader index to close the week within the positive territory.”

The NSE  Oil & Gas Index advanced the most (+6.4 per cent) on account of strong buy sentiment in Conoil Plc (+33.5 per cent), and Total Nigeria Plc (+18.0 per cent) while the  NSE Industrial Goods Index gained 1.6 per cent on the back of gains Dangote Cement PlcM (+3.4 per cent).

Conversely,  the NSE  Banking Index lost the most, declining by  0.7 per cent on account of price depreciation in Guaranty Trust  Bank Plc(-7.2 per cent) and ETI (-1.2 per cent).  The NSE  Consumer Goods Index fell 0.5 per cent on weaker sentiments in Nigerian Breweries Plc (-1.0 per cent) and Unilever Nigeria (-1.0 per cent) which appreciated in the previous week.

Daily Performance summary

The market had opened on Monday on a negative note as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) declined by 0.07 per cent to close at 27,839.93 points. The negative performance was on the back of losses recorded by depreciation recorded in the share prices of PZ Cussons, Nigerian Breweries, Forte Oil, Nascon Allied Industries Plc and Nestle Nigeria Plc and Nigerian Breweries Plc. Similarly, the market capitalisation depreciated by 0.07 per cent to close at N9.56 trillion. In terms of volume of trading a total of total volume of stocks traded was 328.20 million valued at N2.89 billion in 3,215 deals.   The most actively traded sectors were: Financial Services (302.77 million), Consumer Goods (8.30 million shares) and, Conglomerates (6.46 million shares), while the three most actively traded stocks were: Access Bank (84.09 million), FBN Holdings Plc (54.14 million shares) and United Bank for Africa (38.85 million).

All sector indices closed in green save for the  NSE Consumer Goods index which fell 1.0 per cent on account of sell pressure in PZ (-4.9 per cent), Nigerian Breweries (-1.1 per cent) and Nestle Nigeria(-0.1 per cent). The  NSE Banking index advanced the most, up  0.3 per cent on the back of improved buy interest in GTBank Plc (+0.2 per cent) and Zenith Bank (+0.2 per cent). The NSE  Industrial Goods and  NSE Oil & Gas indices rose 0.2  per cent apiece, driven by gains in Lafarge Africa Plc (+0.5 per cent), Conoil Plc (+10.2 per cent) and Total Nigeria (+5.0 per cent).  In the same vein, the Insurance index appreciated 0.2 per cent.

The market rebounded on Tuesday, shaking off the bearish start to the week as the NSE ASI jumped by 1.3 per cent to close at 28,209.93. Market capitalisation shed N127.1 billion to be at N9.69 trillion. The market was lifted by gains in Dangote Cement Plc (+3.9 per cent), Zenith Bank  (+0.5 per cent) and Access  Bank Plc (+0.4 per cent).

Just like the previous day’s performance, all indices closed in green save for the Consumer Goods index which fell 0.7 per cent on account of losses in Unilever Nigeria Plc (-1.1 %) and Nigerian Breweries  (-0.1 per cent). The NSE Industrial Goods led the gainers with 2.0 per cent driven by gains in Dangote Cement (3.9 per cent). Likewise, sustained buying interest in Conoil Plc (+10.2 per cent) and uptrend in Total Nigeria Plc (+2.5 per cent) drove the NSE Oil & Gas indices 1.3 per cent.

The uptrend continued at the equities market  though marginally. The NSE ASI went up 0.02 per cent to close at 28,214.57. Gains in FBN Holdings, UBA, Zenith Bank, Oando and Stanbic IBTC contributed to the positive close. Investors traded 3.09 billion in 2,815 deals worth N6.24 billion in 2,815 deals.  The three most actively traded stocks were: GNI (2.87 billion shares), Zenith Bank (51.22 million shares) and UBA (23.56 million shares).

Profit taking in some highly capitalised stocks halted the two-day rally with the NSE ASI falling by 0.17 per cent to close at 28,166.42.   The stocks included FBN Holdings, UBA, GTBank, Dangote Cement Plc and Guinness  Nigeria Plc.   Although the general market mood remained negative, 1.6 per cent price decline recorded by Dangote Cement Plc the market southwards. Ex-Dangote Cement Plc, the market would have closed 0.6 per cent higher.

Performance across sectors was mixed as the NSE Banking and NSE Industrial Goods Index shed 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent. On the positive side, the NSE Oil & Gas Index advanced the most, rising to 3.4 per cent on the back of appreciation in Oando Plc (+7.1 per cent) and Mobil Oil Plc (+5.0 per cent) while the NSE Consumer Goods Index followed, increasing  by 0.6 per cent as a  result of gains in PZ Cussons  (+4.9 per cent) and Nigerian Breweries Plc (+1.0 per cent).

On the last day of the week, the equity market rebounded today to close the week positively. Specifically, the NSE ASI appreciated by 0.29 per cent to close at 28,247.07  on gains  recorded by  FBN Holdings, Flour Mills, PZ Cussons, Dangote Cement and Guinness  Nigeria.

The total value of stocks traded on the floors of the exchange on Friday was N1.56 billion, down by 56.91 per cent from N3.62bn recorded the previous day while  volume was 265.07 million shares exchanged in  3,136 deals.

Market turnover

In all, the market recorded a turnover of 4.331 billion shares worth N16.803 billion in 16,797 deals in contrast to a total of 611.527 million shares valued at N5.495 billion that exchanged hands the previous week in 9,650 deals.

The Financial Services Industry remained the most active, leading with 4.177 billion shares valued at N9.788 billion traded in 9,805 deals, thus contributing 96.45 per cent and 58.25 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 65.533 million shares worth N5.017 billion in 2,855 deals. The third place was occupied by the Conglomerates Industry with a turnover of 31.751 million shares worth N125.102 million in 594 deals.

Trading in the top three equities namely – Great Nigerian Insurance Plc, FCMB Group Plc and Diamond Bank Plc accounted for 3.299 billion shares worth N3.704 billion in 1,308 deals, contributing 76.18 per cent and 22.04 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Also traded during the week were a total of 615 units of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) valued at N6,070.20 executed in 21 deals, compared with a total of 945 units valued at N9,541.90 transacted two weeks in 18 deals.

A total of 3,394 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N3.263 million were traded in 5 deals compared to a total of 1,700 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N1.591 million transacted the previous week in six deals.

Gainers and losers

Meanwhile, 33 equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than 34 equities in the previous week, while 25 equities depreciated in price, lower than 26 equities in the preceding week. A total of 122 equities remained unchanged higher than 120 equities recorded in the preceding week.

Conoil Plc led the price gainers for the week with 33.4 per cent, followed by Cutix Plc with 19.4 per cent, just as Total Nigeria Plc and Oando Plc appreciated by 18 per cent and 15.2 per cent respectively. Cadbury Nigeria Plc and Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc went up by 14.1 per cent and 9.3 per cent in that order.

Other top price gainers include: MRS Oil Nigeria Plc (8.8 per cent); Eterna Plc (8.2 per cent); Zenith Bank Plc (7.5 per cent) and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc (6.4 per cent).

Conversely, Caverton led the price losers, shedding 13.2 per cent, trailed by Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals Plc with 12.9 per cent, while Beta Glass Company Nigeria Plc (9.7 per cent). Guaranty Trust Bank Plc shed 7.2 per cent, just as Guinness Nigeria Plc and E-Tranzact International Plc fell by 7.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively.

Other top price losers included: African Prudential Registrars Plc (4.9 per cent); Northern Nigeria Flour Mills (4.9 per cent), Airline Services & Logistics Plc (4.7 per cent) and Avon Crowncaps 7 Containers Plc (4.3 per cent).

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Rises as Threat of Immediate Iran Supply Recedes

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent gaining for a fourth consecutive session, as the prospect of extra supply coming to the market soon from Iran faded with talks dragging on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Brent crude was up by 82 cents, or 1.13%, to $73.68 per barrel, having risen 0.2% on Monday. U.S. oil gained 91 cents, or 1.3%, to $71.79 a barrel, having slipped 3 cents in the previous session.

Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran, along with other parties to the 2015 deal on Tehran’s nuclear program, resumed on Saturday in Vienna and were described as “intense” by the European Union.

A U.S. return to the deal would pave the way for the lifting of sanctions on Iran that would allow the OPEC member to resume exports of crude.

It is “looking increasingly unlikely that we will see the U.S. rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal before the Iranian Presidential Elections later this week,” ING Economics said in a note.

Other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with major producers including Russia — a group known as OPEC+ — have been withholding output to support prices amid the pandemic.

“Additional supply from OPEC+ will be needed over the second half of this year, with demand expected to continue its recovery,” ING said.

To meet rising demand, U.S. drillers are also increasing output.

U.S. crude production from seven major shale formations is forecast to rise by about 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to around 7.8 million bpd, the highest since November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly outlook.

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Oil Prices Rise as Demand Improves, Supplies Tighten

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Oil Prices - Investors King

Oil prices rose on Monday, hitting their highest levels in more than two years supported by economic recovery and the prospect of fuel demand growth as vaccination campaigns in developed countries accelerate.

Brent was up 53 cents, or 0.7%, at $73.22 a barrel by 1050 GMT, its highest since May 2019.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.35 a barrel, its highest since October 2018.

“The two leading crude markers are trading at (almost) two-and-a-half-year highs amid a potent bullish cocktail of demand optimism and OPEC+ supply cuts,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

“This backdrop of strengthening oil fundamentals have helped underpin heightened levels of trading activity.”

Motor vehicle traffic is returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe, and more planes are in the air as anti-coronavirus lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, driving three weeks of increases for the oil benchmarks.

The mood was also buoyed by the G7 summit where the world’s wealthiest Western countries sought to project an image of cooperation on key issues such as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the donation of 1 billion vaccine doses to poor nations.

“If the inoculation of the global population accelerates further, that could mean an even faster return of the demand that is still missing to meet pre-Covid levels,” said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that it expected global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, more quickly than previously anticipated.

IEA urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, to increase output to meet the rising demand.

The OPEC+ group has been restraining production to support prices after the pandemic wiped out demand in 2020, maintaining strong compliance with agreed targets in May.

On the supply side, heavy maintenance seasons in Canada and the North Sea also helped prices stay high, Dickson said.

U.S. oil rigs in operation rose by six to 365, the highest since April 2020, energy services company Baker Hughes Co said in its weekly report.

It was the biggest weekly increase of oil rigs in a month, as drilling companies sought to benefit from rising demand.

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Crude Oil

FG Spends N197.74 Billion on Subsidy in Q1 2021

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Crude oil - Investors King

The Federal Government has spent a total sum of N197.74 billion on fuel subsidy in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, according to the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) report for May.

The report noted that the value of shortfall, the amount the NNPC paid as subsidy, in the March receipts stood at N111.97 billion while N60.40 billion was paid in February.

In the three months ended March, the Federal Government spent N197.74 billion on subsidy.

The increase in subsidy was a result of rising oil prices, Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose to $73.13 per barrel on Monday.

The difference in landing price and selling price of a single litre is the subsidy paid by the government.

On May 19, the Nigerian Governors Forum suggested that the Federal Government removed the subsidy completely and pegged the pump price of PMS at N380 per litre.

The governors’ suggestion followed the non-remittance of the NNPC into the April FAAC payments, the money required by most states to meet their expenditure such as salaries and building of infrastructure.

However, experts have said Nigeria is not gaining from the present surge in global oil prices given the huge money spent on subsidy.

Kalu Aja, Abuja-based financial planner and economic expert, said “If Nigeria is importing Premium Motor Spirit and still paying subsidy, then there is no seismic shift.”

“Nigeria needs oil at $130 to meet the deficit. In the short term, however, more dollar cash flow is expected and with depreciated Naira, it will reduce short term deficit.”

Adedayo Bakare, a research analyst, said that the current prices do not really mean much for the country economically.

He said, “The ongoing transition away from fossil fuels and weak oil production from the output cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not make the country benefit much from the rising oil prices.

“Oil production used to be over two million barrels but now around 1.5 million barrels. We need OPEC to relax the output cuts for the naira to gain.”

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