Markets

Stock Market Maintains Positive Momentum, Closes Firmer

Published

8 years ago

September 26, 2016

The stock market maintained a positive momentum to close firmer last week despite apprehensions that the retention of the high monetary indicators by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may impact negatively on the market. The NSE ASI appreciated by 1.39 per cent to 28,247.07, thereby closing in the green for the second consecutive week. The market capitalisation closed higher at N9.703 trillion.

Similarly, all other Indices finished higher during the week, with the exception of the NSE-Main Board Index, NSE Banking Index and the NSE Consumer Goods Index that depreciated by 0.14 per cent, 0.73 per cent and 0.53 per cent respectively, while the NSE ASeM and NSE Insurance Indices closed flat.

Analysts at Afrinvest said: “Whilst a tight monetary policy environment prevails (post-MPC decision), we perceive frail sentiment towards equities may persist as investors continue to take advantage of higher yields in the fixed income market. Nonetheless, we expect the broader index to close the week within the positive territory.”

The NSE Oil & Gas Index advanced the most (+6.4 per cent) on account of strong buy sentiment in Conoil Plc (+33.5 per cent), and Total Nigeria Plc (+18.0 per cent) while the NSE Industrial Goods Index gained 1.6 per cent on the back of gains Dangote Cement PlcM (+3.4 per cent).

Conversely, the NSE Banking Index lost the most, declining by 0.7 per cent on account of price depreciation in Guaranty Trust Bank Plc(-7.2 per cent) and ETI (-1.2 per cent). The NSE Consumer Goods Index fell 0.5 per cent on weaker sentiments in Nigerian Breweries Plc (-1.0 per cent) and Unilever Nigeria (-1.0 per cent) which appreciated in the previous week.

Daily Performance summary

The market had opened on Monday on a negative note as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) declined by 0.07 per cent to close at 27,839.93 points. The negative performance was on the back of losses recorded by depreciation recorded in the share prices of PZ Cussons, Nigerian Breweries, Forte Oil, Nascon Allied Industries Plc and Nestle Nigeria Plc and Nigerian Breweries Plc. Similarly, the market capitalisation depreciated by 0.07 per cent to close at N9.56 trillion. In terms of volume of trading a total of total volume of stocks traded was 328.20 million valued at N2.89 billion in 3,215 deals. The most actively traded sectors were: Financial Services (302.77 million), Consumer Goods (8.30 million shares) and, Conglomerates (6.46 million shares), while the three most actively traded stocks were: Access Bank (84.09 million), FBN Holdings Plc (54.14 million shares) and United Bank for Africa (38.85 million).

All sector indices closed in green save for the NSE Consumer Goods index which fell 1.0 per cent on account of sell pressure in PZ (-4.9 per cent), Nigerian Breweries (-1.1 per cent) and Nestle Nigeria(-0.1 per cent). The NSE Banking index advanced the most, up 0.3 per cent on the back of improved buy interest in GTBank Plc (+0.2 per cent) and Zenith Bank (+0.2 per cent). The NSE Industrial Goods and NSE Oil & Gas indices rose 0.2 per cent apiece, driven by gains in Lafarge Africa Plc (+0.5 per cent), Conoil Plc (+10.2 per cent) and Total Nigeria (+5.0 per cent). In the same vein, the Insurance index appreciated 0.2 per cent.

The market rebounded on Tuesday, shaking off the bearish start to the week as the NSE ASI jumped by 1.3 per cent to close at 28,209.93. Market capitalisation shed N127.1 billion to be at N9.69 trillion. The market was lifted by gains in Dangote Cement Plc (+3.9 per cent), Zenith Bank (+0.5 per cent) and Access Bank Plc (+0.4 per cent).

Just like the previous day’s performance, all indices closed in green save for the Consumer Goods index which fell 0.7 per cent on account of losses in Unilever Nigeria Plc (-1.1 %) and Nigerian Breweries (-0.1 per cent). The NSE Industrial Goods led the gainers with 2.0 per cent driven by gains in Dangote Cement (3.9 per cent). Likewise, sustained buying interest in Conoil Plc (+10.2 per cent) and uptrend in Total Nigeria Plc (+2.5 per cent) drove the NSE Oil & Gas indices 1.3 per cent.

The uptrend continued at the equities market though marginally. The NSE ASI went up 0.02 per cent to close at 28,214.57. Gains in FBN Holdings, UBA, Zenith Bank, Oando and Stanbic IBTC contributed to the positive close. Investors traded 3.09 billion in 2,815 deals worth N6.24 billion in 2,815 deals. The three most actively traded stocks were: GNI (2.87 billion shares), Zenith Bank (51.22 million shares) and UBA (23.56 million shares).

Profit taking in some highly capitalised stocks halted the two-day rally with the NSE ASI falling by 0.17 per cent to close at 28,166.42. The stocks included FBN Holdings, UBA, GTBank, Dangote Cement Plc and Guinness Nigeria Plc. Although the general market mood remained negative, 1.6 per cent price decline recorded by Dangote Cement Plc the market southwards. Ex-Dangote Cement Plc, the market would have closed 0.6 per cent higher.

Performance across sectors was mixed as the NSE Banking and NSE Industrial Goods Index shed 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent. On the positive side, the NSE Oil & Gas Index advanced the most, rising to 3.4 per cent on the back of appreciation in Oando Plc (+7.1 per cent) and Mobil Oil Plc (+5.0 per cent) while the NSE Consumer Goods Index followed, increasing by 0.6 per cent as a result of gains in PZ Cussons (+4.9 per cent) and Nigerian Breweries Plc (+1.0 per cent).

On the last day of the week, the equity market rebounded today to close the week positively. Specifically, the NSE ASI appreciated by 0.29 per cent to close at 28,247.07 on gains recorded by FBN Holdings, Flour Mills, PZ Cussons, Dangote Cement and Guinness Nigeria.

The total value of stocks traded on the floors of the exchange on Friday was N1.56 billion, down by 56.91 per cent from N3.62bn recorded the previous day while volume was 265.07 million shares exchanged in 3,136 deals.

Market turnover

In all, the market recorded a turnover of 4.331 billion shares worth N16.803 billion in 16,797 deals in contrast to a total of 611.527 million shares valued at N5.495 billion that exchanged hands the previous week in 9,650 deals.

The Financial Services Industry remained the most active, leading with 4.177 billion shares valued at N9.788 billion traded in 9,805 deals, thus contributing 96.45 per cent and 58.25 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 65.533 million shares worth N5.017 billion in 2,855 deals. The third place was occupied by the Conglomerates Industry with a turnover of 31.751 million shares worth N125.102 million in 594 deals.

Trading in the top three equities namely – Great Nigerian Insurance Plc, FCMB Group Plc and Diamond Bank Plc accounted for 3.299 billion shares worth N3.704 billion in 1,308 deals, contributing 76.18 per cent and 22.04 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Also traded during the week were a total of 615 units of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) valued at N6,070.20 executed in 21 deals, compared with a total of 945 units valued at N9,541.90 transacted two weeks in 18 deals.

A total of 3,394 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N3.263 million were traded in 5 deals compared to a total of 1,700 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N1.591 million transacted the previous week in six deals.

Gainers and losers

Meanwhile, 33 equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than 34 equities in the previous week, while 25 equities depreciated in price, lower than 26 equities in the preceding week. A total of 122 equities remained unchanged higher than 120 equities recorded in the preceding week.

Conoil Plc led the price gainers for the week with 33.4 per cent, followed by Cutix Plc with 19.4 per cent, just as Total Nigeria Plc and Oando Plc appreciated by 18 per cent and 15.2 per cent respectively. Cadbury Nigeria Plc and Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc went up by 14.1 per cent and 9.3 per cent in that order.

Other top price gainers include: MRS Oil Nigeria Plc (8.8 per cent); Eterna Plc (8.2 per cent); Zenith Bank Plc (7.5 per cent) and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc (6.4 per cent).

Conversely, Caverton led the price losers, shedding 13.2 per cent, trailed by Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals Plc with 12.9 per cent, while Beta Glass Company Nigeria Plc (9.7 per cent). Guaranty Trust Bank Plc shed 7.2 per cent, just as Guinness Nigeria Plc and E-Tranzact International Plc fell by 7.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively.

Other top price losers included: African Prudential Registrars Plc (4.9 per cent); Northern Nigeria Flour Mills (4.9 per cent), Airline Services & Logistics Plc (4.7 per cent) and Avon Crowncaps 7 Containers Plc (4.3 per cent).

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Commodities

Cocoa Fever Sweeps Market: Prices Set to Break $15,000 per Ton Barrier

Published

21 hours ago

April 26, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

Published

2 days ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

Published

2 days ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.