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Manufacturers Back Finance Minister’s Call For Interest Rate Cut

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The Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, has called on the Central Bank of Nigeria to lower interest rate so that the government can borrow domestically to boost the economy without increasing debt servicing costs.

While reacting to the minister’s call, the President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Dr. Frank Jacobs, said that a cut in interest rate would be the best thing to happen to the economy.

“He said, “It will be the best thing that has ever happened to the economy, particularly the manufacturing sector.

“It is what we have been agitating for since and if the interest rate is brought down, it will be the best decision in the current economic dispensation.”

The government is also planning an “immediate large injection of funds” through asset sales, advance payments for licence renewals and infrastructure concessions, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, said.

Adeosun said she was working with the Debt Management Office, Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority and the pension industry to issue an infrastructure bond to raise money for road and housing projects.

She urged the central bank to reconsider its July interest rate increase, which it implemented to help support the naira and attract foreign investment.

The central bank is due to announce its next rate decision today (Tuesday) after the conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with some economists predicting that it will keep the key interest rate at 14 per cent, while others maintain that a cut is inevitable.

Adeosun told CNBC Africa, “We need lower interest rates, because when we are borrowing and interest rates go up, it increases our cost of debt service and it reduces the amount of money that is available to spend on capital projects.

“The attempt was to manage inflation and the trade-off for the economy right now is what is a bigger problem: Is it growth or inflation? For me it is growth. I would rather seek growth. We can manage inflation. I think for us, at the moment in the Nigerian economy, growth is the most important thing.”

Udoma told a business conference that the government planned asset sales to inject more funds into the economy but gave no details. The government has spent almost N800bn on capital expenditures since the budget was approved in May, officials told Reuters.

The minister also said the government had almost finished preparing a bill for the National Assembly to approve emergency powers for President Muhammadu Buhari to improve the business climate.

Adeosun said some adjustment was needed to narrow the spread between the official and black market currency rates, which is running at 25 per cent since the central bank floated the naira.

“We still need to make some necessary adjustments to ensure that the spread is narrow, so that we have true price discovery,” she said.

Meanwhile, the Finance minister said the country had received commitments to its planned $1bn Eurobond from international investors, which it aims to issue before the end of the year, but insisted that pricing would be key.

The government is currently seeking advisers and book runners and is currently accepting proposals from international and local banks for the bond sale, according to Bloomberg.

“We already have quite strong indications and indeed we had some commitments. Even though we weren’t doing a deal, we already have commitments to our bond offer; so, we are very confident that it is just a question of pricing,” Adeosun said.

The minister also said the regulators had approved plans to enable the investment of as much as $20bn of pension funds in the development of infrastructure.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the National Pension Commission have approved “a new instrument that will allow pension funds to invest in infrastructure bonds,” Adeosun said at a meeting of business leaders in Abuja on Monday.

“That’s what will drive, for example, our social housing and our roads programme outside the budget,” she added.

Renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, said in a telephone interview with one of our correspondents that he and other experts had before now stressed the need to reduce the interest rate.

He said, “There is no other way but to reduce the interest rate. During recession, Britain brought down interest rate; and in the US during the recession, what did they do? They brought down interest rate as well. So, we need to bring down the interest rate.”

The Director-General, West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, who lent his voice to the call for a cut in interest rate, said, “That is the only way to fast-track the recovery of the economy. The interest rate must be reduced to close to single digit, if not single digit, in order to stimulate the real sector. Now, it is an average of 25 per cent and that is too high.

“The real sector is dead now; when you are in a recession and the real sector is dead, then the recession will last for long.”

Ekpo said the Monetary Policy Rate, which is the benchmark interest rate, should be reduced to 10 per cent from the current 14 per cent so that the lending rate would be around 13 to 14 per cent.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN had at the end of its meeting in July raised the MPR to 14 per cent from 12 per cent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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