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Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook September 19 – 23

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CBN

The US dollar gained against all the major currencies last week, following better than expected inflation report released on Friday. This, coupled with the comments from Federal Reserve officials bolstered the attractiveness of the US dollar as investors/traders jumped on it in anticipation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise borrowing cost.

While, speculations formed the bulk of the unsustainable dollars’ gains. It is imperative to note that the dollar’s gains was partly the reason import prices dropped from an increase of 0.1 percent in July to a decline of-0.2 percent in August, this drop in prices is expected to weigh on September consumer price index and damped August recorded progress.

Again, the drop in consumer spending (-0.3%) and worse than expected producer prices (0.0%) record in August are pivotal to Fed’s rate decision — especially with industrial production (-0.4%) and capacity utilization (75.5%) declining at the same time.  Hence, the disconnection between macro data and current dollar bullish run should be closely watched per adventure the Bank of Japan decided as that will either shift current dollar gains to the Yen or boost it even further. This week, volatility is expected as the FOMC meets to announce economic projection and federal funds rate on Wednesday.

In Australia, the unemployment rate dropped to three-year low of 5.6 percent in August, despite the loss of 3,900 jobs. The contradictory result confirmed Capital Economics insinuation that the fall in jobs was a bit bigger than it looked. Also, the weak wages and low consumer spending at a record low unemployment rate point to an economy that is struggling and grossly ambiguous.

In the UK, the pound lost part of its gains last week after data revealed that producer price input dropped to 0.2 percent from 3.1 percent and that consumer prices remained unchanged at 0.6 percent even with the weak pound. Although, unemployment rate remained 4.9 percent, average earnings dropped from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent and consumer spending managed to exceed expectation by declining 0.2 percent against the 0.4 percent widely expected.

This week, the world awaits the Bank of Japan decision (BOJ) after over three years of unconventional monetary policy called qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE). The Hahuriko Kuroda team is expected to expand its monetary policy in an effort to boost exports and fight off insistent low consumer prices, and also halt the continuous gain of the Yen. Accordingly, the financial markets will experience high volatility this week as both the Fed and BOJ attempt to further their economic growth amid high global risks and uncertainties.

Overall, the financial market is yet to find its rhythm as central banks strive to strike a balance between fiscal and monetary policy. This week, GBPJPY and EURAUD top my list.

GBPJPY

After the series of weak macro data released last week, the pound lost more than two weeks’ gains against all the major currencies. While the reports were not that bad, the impact on the pound showed how vulnerable the UK economy is to eventualities, as such greater attention should be given to this pair this week. Especially with the Fed and BOJ economic statement due on Wednesday.

gbpjpydaily

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Technically, after breaking 134.90 support level established in June. This pair has changed its outlook to the downside, while we need the BOJ decision to further validate this prediction. I am bearish on GBPJPY with 129.85 as the target, as long as 134.90 resistance holds.

EURAUD

Last week, our target hit at 1.5000. But since then Euro-area economic outlook has changed after Mario Draghi decision to leave rates unchanged. The Euro-area industrial production dropped from 0.8 percent to -1.1 percent, while both German and Euro-area ZEW economic sentiment also plunged. All these combined with weak manufacturing sector and post-Brexit uncertainties are weighing on the euro-zone economic outlook.

eurauddaily

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While, the Australian economy on the other hand, improved its unemployment rate to three-year low and has consistently used its broad financial base to enforce investors’ confidence in its economy, even though capital importation has seen a decline in recent time. The economy remained vibrant against the Euro single currency. This week, I am bearish on EURAUD as long as 1.5000 resistance holds, 1.4777 remains the first target and 1.4665 target two.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Dollar Pulls Back as the World Prepares for New US President

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Global debt

Dollar Pulls Back as the World Prepares for New US President

US Dollar pulled back on Tuesday ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration following a week of consistent gains.

The United States dollar pared gains against the European common currency to $1.21444 per Euro as investors abandoned the greenback for Gold and other haven assets ahead of Wednesday’s inauguration.

Against New Zealand Kiwi, the dollar was largely unchanged and remained steady within 0.70787 support level and 0.71401 resistance level.

However, against the Japanese Yen, the United States Dollar gained on Tuesday to 103.966.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding global growth and COVID-19 vaccine deployment, OPEC is bullish on oil demand in 2021.

In its latest outlook for the year, OPEC left demand unchanged for the year even as experts are projecting disruption from U.S producers given the series of stimulus planned by the incoming administration.

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Black Market, CBN Official Rates, Bureau De Change) Monday, January 18, 2021

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interbank

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Black Market, CBN Official Rates, Bureau De Change) Monday, January 18, 2021

Naira exchange rate decline to N642 against the British Pound and remained pressure at N475 and N580 against the US Dollar And Euro, respectively.

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
18/01/2021 470/475 635/642 572/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
15/01/2021 470/475 635/642 573/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
14/01/2021 470/475 630/640 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
13/01/2021 470/474 630/637 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
12/01/2021 470/475 630/637 575/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
11/01/2021 468/675 625/635 575/582 60/70 372/382 245/293
08/01/2021 467/672 622/630 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
07/01/2021 465/470 620/628 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
06/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/570 60/70 365/378 245/293
05/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
04/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
31/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
30/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
29/12/2020 465/470 620/628 565/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
28/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
25/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
24/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
23/12/2020 470/475 622/632 575/580 60/70 350/367 245/293
22/12/2020 472/476 622/630 570/578 60/70 340/362 250/295
21/12/2020 472/476 622/632 570/580 55/68 340/362 250/295
18/12/2020 472/477 622/630 570/577 55/68 340/362 250/295

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
18/01/2020 460/475 635/643 570/580
15/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
14/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
13/01/2020 460/470 626/633 565/576
12/01/2020 460/470 626/633 566/576
11/01/2020 460/470 620/630 560/573
08/01/2020 460/470 615/625 555/573
07/01/2020 460/470 615/623 550/570
06/01/2020 460/470 610/623 550/572
05/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
04/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
31/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
30/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
29/12/2020 455/475 600/626 550/573
28/12/2020 455/475 605/628 555/573
25/12/2020 455/475 600/628 550/575
24/12/2020 455/474 600/628 555/575
23/12/2020 460/475 621/632 568/580
22/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577
21/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Official Naira Exchange Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
1/15/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
1/15/2021 POUNDS STERLING 516.9181 517.6001 518.282
1/15/2021 EURO 459.4996 460.1058 460.712
1/15/2021 SWISS FRANC 426.8499 427.413 427.9761
1/15/2021 YEN 3.6548 3.6596 3.6644
1/15/2021 CFA 0.6839 0.6939 0.7039
1/15/2021 WAUA 545.8708 546.5909 547.3111
1/15/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.531 58.6087 58.6864
1/15/2021 RIYAL 101.0236 101.1568 101.2901
1/15/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.8724 24.9052 24.938

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Parallel Market, Bureau De Change and CBN Rates); Friday, January 15, 2021

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Nigeria 500 naira notes

Daily Naira Exchange Rates (Parallel Market, Bureau De Change and CBN Rates); Friday, January 15, 2021

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure against the United States Dollar on the parallel market at N475 exchange rate, while the value has not improved against the Euro and Pound, inflation rose to 15.75 percent in the month of December to further compound Nigeria’s predicament.

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
15/01/2021 470/475 635/642 573/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
14/01/2021 470/475 630/640 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
13/01/2021 470/474 630/637 570/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
12/01/2021 470/475 630/637 575/580 60/70 375/385 245/293
11/01/2021 468/675 625/635 575/582 60/70 372/382 245/293
08/01/2021 467/672 622/630 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
07/01/2021 465/470 620/628 570/575 60/70 365/378 245/293
06/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/570 60/70 365/378 245/293
05/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
04/01/2021 465/470 620/628 565/572 60/70 365/378 245/293
31/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
30/12/2020 465/470 620/628 567/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
29/12/2020 465/470 620/628 565/573 60/70 365/378 245/293
28/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
25/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
24/12/2020 460/465 615/625 560/570 60/70 350/367 245/293
23/12/2020 470/475 622/632 575/580 60/70 350/367 245/293
22/12/2020 472/476 622/630 570/578 60/70 340/362 250/295
21/12/2020 472/476 622/632 570/580 55/68 340/362 250/295
18/12/2020 472/477 622/630 570/577 55/68 340/362 250/295

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
15/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
14/01/2020 460/475 630/638 570/577
13/01/2020 460/470 626/633 565/576
12/01/2020 460/470 626/633 566/576
11/01/2020 460/470 620/630 560/573
08/01/2020 460/470 615/625 555/573
07/01/2020 460/470 615/623 550/570
06/01/2020 460/470 610/623 550/572
05/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
04/01/2020 460/470 615/624 550/572
31/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
30/12/2020 460/470 600/626 550/573
29/12/2020 455/475 600/626 550/573
28/12/2020 455/475 605/628 555/573
25/12/2020 455/475 600/628 550/575
24/12/2020 455/474 600/628 555/575
23/12/2020 460/475 621/632 568/580
22/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577
21/12/2020 470/475 620/631 568/577

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
1/15/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
1/15/2021 POUNDS STERLING 516.9181 517.6001 518.282
1/15/2021 EURO 459.4996 460.1058 460.712
1/15/2021 SWISS FRANC 426.8499 427.413 427.9761
1/15/2021 YEN 3.6548 3.6596 3.6644
1/15/2021 CFA 0.6839 0.6939 0.7039
1/15/2021 WAUA 545.8708 546.5909 547.3111
1/15/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.531 58.6087 58.6864
1/15/2021 RIYAL 101.0236 101.1568 101.2901
1/15/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.8724 24.9052 24.938

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