Forex

U.S. Manufacturing, A Drag on Rates Increase

Published

8 years ago

September 2, 2016

Last week, when the odds of Fed raising rates later in the year jumped. I said it is unlikely the Fed will raise rates this September because of low productivity, especially from the manufacturing sector. Yesterday, the unemployment claims remained low for 77 consecutive weeks, but something never changed, that was the low factory output and oversea orders — a huge concern if the Fed planned to attack the surge in unemployment and low new job creation that usually accompany high interest rates.

Prior to the release of the manufacturing output figure that dropped 3.2 points to 49.4 in August, I emphasized the importance of weak production on Federal Reserves’ rates decision and its impact on dollar strength.

“The rebound in the dollar is expected to hurt the already weak oversea orders, which will weigh on trade balance and economic growth in the third quarter. This will likely compel the Fed to hold back this year –especially with low productivity and weak exports.”

Although, the manufacturing report merely reflect a month decline, but when the level of the dip is factor-in — 2-year low, and the fact that this is the first contraction in the last 6 months, it is now safe to say manufacturing sector of the United States of America is still weak and will continue to weigh on the entire economy and even get worse per adventure retail sales drop.

Overall, the purchasing manager index released yesterday showed “The manufacturing sector is not in recovery yet and definitely not rebounding as previously envisaged by the Fed officials two weeks ago.”

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollars at NAFEX, Others at Black Market

Published

10 hours ago

October 9, 2024

Iyanuoluwa Martins

The Naira gained a value of N73.39 to close the Tuesday session at N1,561.76/$1 at the official window, pulling a 4.5 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX).

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, this is compared to N1,635.15/$1 published in the preceding session on Monday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $253.68 million, indicating that the session’s turnover rose by 100.9 percent. This is a decrease of $127.44 million compared to $126.24 million published the previous day.

The domestic currency also witnessed a gain against the British currency but closed flat on the Euro on Tuesday.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N43.82 to wrap the session at N2,131.62/£1 from N2,175.44/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Meanwhile, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,788.98/€1.

Data from the black market showed that the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar, the UK Pound Sterling, the Euro, and the Canadian Dollar.

The local currency recorded a N14.28 gain to go from N1,681.67 per Dollar to N1,667.39/$1 while on the UK currency, the Naira rose to N2,132.13, a N24.10 gain from N2,156.23

For the Euro, the Naira pulled a N19.12 appreciation to close at N1,833.63 versus N1,852.75 and added 62 cents on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,206.93 against Monday’s N1,207.55 per CAD.

Naira

Naira Set to Stabilise Against Dollar by Year-End, FSDH Bank Predicts

Published

10 hours ago

October 9, 2024

Yetunde Olugbenga

First Securities Discount House (FSDH) Merchant Bank Ltd has projected that the Naira will stabilise against the Dollar in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This projection was attributed to the commencement of Dangote Refinery operations and the October 1, announcement that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has started Naira for crude with the 650,000 barrels a day refinery.

FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd report titled Priorities for Economic Stability in the Short-Term noted that the Naira’s stabilisation against the USD would be influenced by a reduction in foreign exchange pressure, particularly the Naira-for-crude initiative.

The Nigerian Naira has been on a downward spiral against the United States Dollar since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu removed subsidies and announced he had floated the local currency.

The Naira immediately plunged from about N750/US$ to over N1600/US$ across the nation’s key foreign exchange segments and eroded the profitability of import-dependent companies.

FSDH Merchant Bank noted that petroleum products account for 30-40% of Nigeria’s import bills. Therefore, Dangote Refinery is expected to ease that burden and further enhance the nation’s economy.

The report also highlights a 45.2% surge in trade surplus from a US$6.1 billion surplus in FY 2023 to US$8.9 billion for FY 2024.

Similarly, portfolio investment inflows increased due to the high interest rate. Still, the report noted that the surge in inflows is yet to crystalize.

Naira

Naira Weakens to N1,635/$1 at NAFEM, Sells N1,681/$1 at Black Market

Published

1 day ago

October 8, 2024

Iyanuoluwa Martins

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, October 7 to N1,635.15/$1.

Analysis done by Investors King showed that the local currency lost 0.24 percent or N3.94 at the specialised window, according to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

This is compared to N1,631.21/$1 published in the preceding session on Friday.

This coincided with a drop in the turnover on Monday as secondary data showed an aggregate of $126.24 million on record, compared to the $239.36 million turnover reported on Friday.

This represents a drop of $113.12 million or 47.3 percent.

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced that it sold $543.5 million to authorised dealers and deposit money banks (DMBs) to reduce observed market volatility caused by demand from importers and seasoned demand for FX between September 6 and 30, 2024.

According to a statement issued by Omolara Duke, the Director of Financial Markets Department of the CBN, the transaction was through a two-way quote at the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on 11 dealing days.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and appreciated on the Euro at the week’s opening session.

Trading against the British pound, the local currency closed at N2,175.44/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,788.96 per Euro, a gain of N41.15 from N1,830.11.

The Naira also dropped against the US Dollar at the unofficial black market as it closed at N1,681.67 from N1,676.56 quoted on Friday. This signified a N5.11.

It followed the same pattern against the Pound Sterling and the Euro trading at N2,156.23/£1 and N1,852.75/€1 respectively, losing N2.40 and 60 Kobo from N2,153.83/£1 and N1,852.15/€1.

The local currency also declined by N5.37 on the Canadian Dollar as it fell to N1,207.55/CAD1 from N1,202.18/CAD1