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Economic Recession: MAN, LCCI, Rewane, Others Ask CBN to Cut Interest Rate

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry and other organised private sectors on Thursday called on the Federal Government to drastically slash interest rate in order to stimulate economic recovery.

Professional bodies such as the Chartered Institute of Finance and Control and the Institute of Fiscal Studies of Nigeria and renowned economists including the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, advised the government to urgently review its policies and spend more to atttract both local and foreign investors to invest in the economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics had on Wednesday released the Gross Domestic Product figures for the second quarter of 2016, whose growth rate slid from -0.36 per cent in the first quarter to -2.06 per cent.

It also released the capital importation report for the second quarter, the unemployment statistics report, the inflation report for the month of July and the labour productivity report for the month of July, all of which painted a negative picture of the Nigerian economy with inflation rising as high as 17.1 per cent from 16.5 per cent, unemployment rate increasing to 13.3 per cent from 12.1 per cent and investment inflows dropping to its lowest levels at $647.1m from $710m.

But speaking to one of our correspondents in a telephone interview on Thursday, the President of MAN, Dr Frank Jacob, said the interest rate should be reduced from over 22 per cent to five per cent.

This, he added, would enable manufacturers to borrow for productive purposes.

He said, “Some of the requests that we’ve been making from the government should be looked into. To reflate this economy, they need to reduce the interest rate on loans to five per cent.

“They can also create a special window for manufacturers to source foreign exchange and make it readily available for them as and when they are needed. And of course, the issue of infrastructure should be addressed, especially power and road.”

Reacting, the Director-General, Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Mr. Olusegun Oshinowo, said most nations that had been in recession embarked on prudent spending as a way out.

He said, “We have to be able to identify critical sectors of the economy that have impact on other sectors, such as infrastructure which is about road, rail, air and sea transportation. This sector makes for easy movement of goods and services from one location to the other and should be given a lot of attention by the government.

“The government should also settle domestic debts. People who have worked for government should be paid. The focus should also be on social infrastructure with initiatives like the National Health Insurance Scheme and others being empowered to promote health care in the nation.”

The Director-General, LCCI, Mr. Muda Yusuf, said what was important was to inspire the confidence of investors and called on more investment in infrastructure, adding that there was a need to fast-track the implementation of the 2016 budget so that funds could be released into the system for infrastructure development.

Another solution, according to the LCCI DG, was on the trade policies and the various tariffs, which he said the government needed to review downwards to drive down costs in the manufacturing sector.

“The rising inflation is cost-driven inflation owing to duties paid by manufacturers who import critical raw and packaging materials. The government should review the shipping charges and charges imposed by terminal operators so that the cost of manufacturing can go down.”

The President, Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Mr. Larry Ettah, warned that the imposition of excessive taxes and levies on businesses is not the best solution to recession.

Rather, he said the role of government regulatory agencies should be to make the business environment conducive for organisations to thrive and create jobs.

While speaking at the 59th Annual General Meeting of NECA in Lagos on Thursday, Ettah said, “We believe that it is okay if regulators regulate but we are averse to a situation where there is overreach of regulation. In which case, you are not trying not to look at the spirit of regulation, which was really to encourage businesses to survive but to see regulation purely from revenue generation perspective.”

The Executive Director, Corporate Finance, BGL Capital Ltd, Mr. Femi Ademola, said the high yield on treaury bills had made banks to be lazy as they now preferred to channel their funds to invest in the T-bills rather than for productive activities.

He said if the CBN could reduce the interest to about eight per cent, more funds would be made available to stimulate economic activities.

He said, “The government needs to start working now by implementing its programmes particularly the capital components of the budget. This is the time for both the monetary and fiscal authorities to come together to stimulate economic activities.

“On the monetary side, the CBN needs to reduce the interest rate from the current rate to eight per cent. Enough of fighting inflation because the inflation that the CBN is fighting is not induced by too much of money in circulation but it’s a structural issue that is outside the control of monetary policy.”

Rewane, in a telephone interview with one of our correspondents, said, “The hole is much deeper than we thought we were initially; so, it is only when you know how deep the hole is, then you know how to climb out of it.

“How do you climb out of recession? You climb out of recession by investing, spending and wooing and courting investors to bring them into the country. That is imperative.”

He said part of what sank the country into recession was the sharp drop in the production of oil.

Rewane said, “If the oil and gas production doesn’t come back up; if we do not bring down interest rate, as long that the central bank thinks that it is going to push up interest rate, this economy will not recover. They have to bring down interest rate immediately.”

“The earlier they do that, the better for everybody. When you do that, the currency will drop some more. But it doesn’t matter. The lower the currency, the more the investors will come in.”

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN had at the end of its last meeting raised the monetary policy rate (benchmark interest rate) to 14 per cent from 12 per cent.

The Chairman of the Board, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Mr. Kyari Bukar, said, “One of the fundamental things that I strongly believe in is that to get out of recession, government has to spend. Liquidity has to be in the economy.

“You don’t spend for the sake of spending; you invest. So, the capital side of the equation needs to be enhanced, even if it means in the short term, we are going to borrow, we have to spend on infrastructure that will be catalysts or enablers for many of the things that we need to grow our economy and get us out of this recession.”

A professor of financial economics at the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Leo Ukpong, said, “Definitely, we need a clear economic policy. It is bad economic policy that led to a recession, and to get out of it, we need a good economic policy.”

“I think the first thing that the government has to do is to design policies that will keep people in employment. We must have a very strong short-term and long-term economic growth policy. Short term is to start implementing the budget, especially the part that has to do with construction and privatisation.”

Leo said the CBN should reduce the benchmark interest rate “so that businesses can borrow and stay alive”, adding, “I think the central bank has to rethink its interest rate policy.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Mega Refinery in Nigeria Seeks Millions of Barrels of US Crude Amid Output Challenges

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Dangote Refinery

The Dangote Mega Refinery, situated near Lagos, Nigeria, is embarking on an ambitious plan to procure millions of barrels of US crude over the next year.

The refinery, established by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest individual, has issued a term tender for the purchase of 2 million barrels a month of West Texas Intermediate Midland crude for a duration of 12 months, commencing in July.

This development revealed through a document obtained by Bloomberg, represents a shift in strategy for the refinery, which has opted for US oil imports due to constraints in the availability and reliability of Nigerian crude.

Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at Citac, an energy consultancy specializing in the African downstream sector, emphasized the allure of US crude for Dangote’s refinery.

Georgieva highlighted the challenges associated with sourcing Nigerian crude, including insufficient supply, unreliability, and sometimes unavailability.

In contrast, US WTI offers reliability, availability, and competitive pricing, making it an attractive option for Dangote.

Nigeria’s struggles to meet its OPEC+ quota and sustain its crude production capacity have been ongoing for at least a year.

Despite an estimated production capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day, the country only managed to pump about 1.45 million barrels a day of crude and liquids in April.

Factors contributing to this decline include crude theft, aging oil pipelines, low investment, and divestments by oil majors operating in Nigeria.

To address the challenge of local supply for the Dangote refinery, Nigeria’s upstream regulators have proposed new draft rules compelling oil producers to prioritize selling crude to domestic refineries.

This regulatory move aims to ensure sufficient local supply to support the operations of the 650,000 barrel-a-day Dangote refinery.

Operating at about half capacity presently, the Dangote refinery has capitalized on the opportunity to secure cheaper US oil imports to fulfill up to a third of its feedstock requirements.

Since the beginning of the year, the refinery has been receiving monthly shipments of about 2 million barrels of WTI Midland from the United States.

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Oil Prices Hold Steady as U.S. Demand Signals Strengthening

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices maintained a steady stance in the global market as signals of strengthening demand in the United States provided support amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, holds at $82.79 per barrel, a marginal increase of 4 cents or 0.05%.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a slight uptick of 4 cents to $78.67 per barrel.

The stability in oil prices came in the wake of favorable data indicating a potential surge in demand from the U.S. market.

An analysis by MUFG analysts Ehsan Khoman and Soojin Kim pointed to a broader risk-on sentiment spurred by signs of receding inflationary pressures in the U.S., suggesting the possibility of a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

This prospect could alleviate the strength of the dollar and render oil more affordable for holders of other currencies, consequently bolstering demand.

Despite a brief dip on Wednesday, when Brent crude touched an intra-day low of $81.05 per barrel, the commodity rebounded, indicating underlying market resilience.

This bounce-back was attributed to a notable decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, gasoline, and distillates.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a reduction of 2.5 million barrels in crude inventories to 457 million barrels for the week ending May 10, surpassing analysts’ consensus forecast of 543,000 barrels.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM, underscored the significance of increased refinery activity, which contributed to the decline in inventories and hinted at heightened demand.

This development sparked a turnaround in price dynamics, with earlier losses being nullified by a surge in buying activity that wiped out all declines.

Moreover, U.S. consumer price data for April revealed a less-than-expected increase, aligning with market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The prospect of monetary easing further buoyed market sentiment, contributing to the stability of oil prices.

However, amidst these market dynamics, geopolitical tensions persisted in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Palestinian factions. Israeli military operations in Gaza remained ongoing, with ceasefire negotiations reaching a stalemate mediated by Qatar and Egypt.

The situation underscored the potential for geopolitical flare-ups to impact oil market sentiment.

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Shell’s Bonga Field Hits Record High Production of 138,000 Barrels per Day in 2023

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oil field

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) has achieved a significant milestone as its Bonga field, Nigeria’s first deep-water development, hit a record high production of 138,000 barrels per day in 2023.

This represents a substantial increase when compared to 101,000 barrels per day produced in the previous year.

The improvement in production is attributed to various factors, including the drilling of new wells, reservoir optimization, enhanced facility management, and overall asset management strategies.

Elohor Aiboni, Managing Director of SNEPCo, expressed pride in Bonga’s performance, stating that the increased production underscores the commitment of the company’s staff and its continuous efforts to enhance production processes and maintenance.

Aiboni also acknowledged the support of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and SNEPCo’s co-venture partners, including TotalEnergies Nigeria Limited, Nigerian Agip Exploration, and Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Limited.

The Bonga field, which commenced production in November 2005, operates through the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, with a capacity of 225,000 barrels per day.

Located 120 kilometers offshore, the FPSO has been a key contributor to Nigeria’s oil production since its inception.

Last year, the Bonga FPSO reached a significant milestone by exporting its 1-billionth barrel of oil, further cementing its position as a vital asset in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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