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Economic Recession: MAN, LCCI, Rewane, Others Ask CBN to Cut Interest Rate

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry and other organised private sectors on Thursday called on the Federal Government to drastically slash interest rate in order to stimulate economic recovery.

Professional bodies such as the Chartered Institute of Finance and Control and the Institute of Fiscal Studies of Nigeria and renowned economists including the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, advised the government to urgently review its policies and spend more to atttract both local and foreign investors to invest in the economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics had on Wednesday released the Gross Domestic Product figures for the second quarter of 2016, whose growth rate slid from -0.36 per cent in the first quarter to -2.06 per cent.

It also released the capital importation report for the second quarter, the unemployment statistics report, the inflation report for the month of July and the labour productivity report for the month of July, all of which painted a negative picture of the Nigerian economy with inflation rising as high as 17.1 per cent from 16.5 per cent, unemployment rate increasing to 13.3 per cent from 12.1 per cent and investment inflows dropping to its lowest levels at $647.1m from $710m.

But speaking to one of our correspondents in a telephone interview on Thursday, the President of MAN, Dr Frank Jacob, said the interest rate should be reduced from over 22 per cent to five per cent.

This, he added, would enable manufacturers to borrow for productive purposes.

He said, “Some of the requests that we’ve been making from the government should be looked into. To reflate this economy, they need to reduce the interest rate on loans to five per cent.

“They can also create a special window for manufacturers to source foreign exchange and make it readily available for them as and when they are needed. And of course, the issue of infrastructure should be addressed, especially power and road.”

Reacting, the Director-General, Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Mr. Olusegun Oshinowo, said most nations that had been in recession embarked on prudent spending as a way out.

He said, “We have to be able to identify critical sectors of the economy that have impact on other sectors, such as infrastructure which is about road, rail, air and sea transportation. This sector makes for easy movement of goods and services from one location to the other and should be given a lot of attention by the government.

“The government should also settle domestic debts. People who have worked for government should be paid. The focus should also be on social infrastructure with initiatives like the National Health Insurance Scheme and others being empowered to promote health care in the nation.”

The Director-General, LCCI, Mr. Muda Yusuf, said what was important was to inspire the confidence of investors and called on more investment in infrastructure, adding that there was a need to fast-track the implementation of the 2016 budget so that funds could be released into the system for infrastructure development.

Another solution, according to the LCCI DG, was on the trade policies and the various tariffs, which he said the government needed to review downwards to drive down costs in the manufacturing sector.

“The rising inflation is cost-driven inflation owing to duties paid by manufacturers who import critical raw and packaging materials. The government should review the shipping charges and charges imposed by terminal operators so that the cost of manufacturing can go down.”

The President, Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Mr. Larry Ettah, warned that the imposition of excessive taxes and levies on businesses is not the best solution to recession.

Rather, he said the role of government regulatory agencies should be to make the business environment conducive for organisations to thrive and create jobs.

While speaking at the 59th Annual General Meeting of NECA in Lagos on Thursday, Ettah said, “We believe that it is okay if regulators regulate but we are averse to a situation where there is overreach of regulation. In which case, you are not trying not to look at the spirit of regulation, which was really to encourage businesses to survive but to see regulation purely from revenue generation perspective.”

The Executive Director, Corporate Finance, BGL Capital Ltd, Mr. Femi Ademola, said the high yield on treaury bills had made banks to be lazy as they now preferred to channel their funds to invest in the T-bills rather than for productive activities.

He said if the CBN could reduce the interest to about eight per cent, more funds would be made available to stimulate economic activities.

He said, “The government needs to start working now by implementing its programmes particularly the capital components of the budget. This is the time for both the monetary and fiscal authorities to come together to stimulate economic activities.

“On the monetary side, the CBN needs to reduce the interest rate from the current rate to eight per cent. Enough of fighting inflation because the inflation that the CBN is fighting is not induced by too much of money in circulation but it’s a structural issue that is outside the control of monetary policy.”

Rewane, in a telephone interview with one of our correspondents, said, “The hole is much deeper than we thought we were initially; so, it is only when you know how deep the hole is, then you know how to climb out of it.

“How do you climb out of recession? You climb out of recession by investing, spending and wooing and courting investors to bring them into the country. That is imperative.”

He said part of what sank the country into recession was the sharp drop in the production of oil.

Rewane said, “If the oil and gas production doesn’t come back up; if we do not bring down interest rate, as long that the central bank thinks that it is going to push up interest rate, this economy will not recover. They have to bring down interest rate immediately.”

“The earlier they do that, the better for everybody. When you do that, the currency will drop some more. But it doesn’t matter. The lower the currency, the more the investors will come in.”

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN had at the end of its last meeting raised the monetary policy rate (benchmark interest rate) to 14 per cent from 12 per cent.

The Chairman of the Board, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Mr. Kyari Bukar, said, “One of the fundamental things that I strongly believe in is that to get out of recession, government has to spend. Liquidity has to be in the economy.

“You don’t spend for the sake of spending; you invest. So, the capital side of the equation needs to be enhanced, even if it means in the short term, we are going to borrow, we have to spend on infrastructure that will be catalysts or enablers for many of the things that we need to grow our economy and get us out of this recession.”

A professor of financial economics at the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Leo Ukpong, said, “Definitely, we need a clear economic policy. It is bad economic policy that led to a recession, and to get out of it, we need a good economic policy.”

“I think the first thing that the government has to do is to design policies that will keep people in employment. We must have a very strong short-term and long-term economic growth policy. Short term is to start implementing the budget, especially the part that has to do with construction and privatisation.”

Leo said the CBN should reduce the benchmark interest rate “so that businesses can borrow and stay alive”, adding, “I think the central bank has to rethink its interest rate policy.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Middle East Conflict, US Election Push Oil Prices Further

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Crude oil - Investors King

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the election in the United States bolstered crude oil prices on Friday.

Brent crude settled up $1.67, or 2.25 percent to trade at $76.05 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up $1.59, or 2.27 percent to $71.78.

In the week ended Friday, Brent crude oil gained 4 percent while WTI appreciated by 3.7 percent higher.

Market analysts note that the tensions on the geopolitical front especially in the Middle East with Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, backed by Iran, have supported largely decided prices in the last month.

According to the US Secretary of State, Mr Antony Blinken said there was a sense of urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, while calling for the protection of civilians.

Officials from the US and Israel are set to restart talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.

Investors continue to await Israel’s response to an Iranian missile attack on October 1 especially after it said it would not strike the country’s nuclear or oil targets and instead opt for military targets. If it had attacked the oil targets, it would have triggered some increase in oil prices.

Now, investors globally are piling into the Dollar and betting on rising volatility ahead of these next crucial two weeks leading up to the November 5 election in the US between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Also, the market is watching an election in Japan and looking forward to plans by three major central banks on interest rates and the UK government presenting its new budget.

Traders are also seeking more clarity on China’s stimulus policies, though analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday left its oil price forecasts unchanged at between $70 and $85 a barrel for Brent in 2025, expecting the impact from any Chinese stimulus to be modest relative to bigger drivers such as Middle East oil supply.

Bank of America is forecasting Brent crude to average $75 a barrel in 2025 without any rolling back of production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ into next year, it said in a note on Friday.

 

 

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Crude Oil

Middle East Ceasefire Talks Weaken Oil Prices

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Crude Oil

Oil prices eased on Thursday on reports the US and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

Brent oil settled 58 cents, or 0.8 percent lower at $74.38 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 58 cents, or 0.8 percent to end at $70.19.

The oil market has been gripped by concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the possibility that it could result in oil supply disruptions.

Negotiators will gather in Doha, the capital of Qatar, in the coming days to try to restart talks toward a deal for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza.

Iran fired close to 200 missiles at Israel on October 1 and this led the international crude benchmark, Brent crude to surge about 8 percent during the week ended October 4 on worries Israel would attack Iran’s oil infrastructure.

It fell about 8 percent in the week ended October 18 on reports Israel would not hit energy infrastructure, easing fears of supply disruptions.

Iran, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces about 4 million barrels per day and backs several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. An attack by Israel will send prices up.

Analysts believe that other Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have enough spare capacity to offset potential losses of supply from Iran.

However, in case the conflict escalates to Iranian proxies targeting oil infrastructure in Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbours, or if Iran moves to block or restrict oil cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to triple digits and record highs.

In a related development, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues fell to the lowest level in more than three years in August caused by underwhelming oil demand and continued supply constraints from the world’s top crude exporter.

Traders also weighed uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election on November 5 between former president Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Energy

Tinubu’s Government to Convert Fuel Stations to CNG Outlets for Cheaper, Cleaner Energy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has revealed President Bola Tinubu’s plans to convert fuel stations into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) outlets to provide Nigerians with an affordable alternative to petrol.

In a statement on Wednesday, while addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, Ekpo confirmed that the President intends to expand the use of CNG across the country.

The minister emphasized that CNG is here to stay and urged Nigerians to embrace the initiative, adding that it is safe, cheaper, and environmentally friendly.

He said, “We are well aware that the President set up a Presidential Committee on the CNG to drive the CNG project. It is left for us to inform the general public that CNG has come to stay, and we have to follow that route because CNG is safe, cheaper, and protects the environment.

“It is important to note that when you are using CNG, you save a lot of money, a litre of fuel can go for N1000, but you get CNG at N200 per litre, which saves you N800.

“With the passion of Mr President, the push that he has given to us, we’ll try to drive the CNG programme to reach the nooks and crannies of this country.

“We have to take advantage of the natural resources, gas, that God has endowed us with.

“What we produce in our country is more than enough for us to use for CNG; and of course, you know, we are exporting to so many other countries.”

This development follows a recent CNG vehicle explosion at the NIPCO CNG station on Eyean, Auchi Road, Edo State, which resulted in multiple injuries and damage to vehicles in the vicinity.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded.

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