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Japan Signals Readiness to Stem Yen Gains

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Haruhiko Kuroda

Japan’s chief cabinet secretary has signaled Tokyo’s readiness to intervene in the market if the yen spikes out of line with fundamentals and defended the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy.

Yoshihide Suga, one of premier Shinzo Abe’s closest aides, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday the government will respond “appropriately” to unwelcome yen gains that hurt growth.

He also stressed the need to respect the BOJ’s independence from political interference, a sign the government will not get in the way if the bank opts to deepen negative rates to stimulate the economy.

Suga’s comments come as Japan struggles to get on a solid growth track. Its economy ground to a halt in April-June and analysts expect any rebound in the current quarter to be modest, as weak global growth and the yen’s 20 percent rise against the dollar this year have hurt exports and capital spending.

He said yen moves were a key debate topic at a regular meeting he created that gathers senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Financial Services Agency and the BOJ.

“Through the meetings, the government will closely watch market moves and respond appropriately,” the top government spokesman said, when asked whether Tokyo could intervene in the market if the yen spikes abruptly.

In a prepared speech later at a Reuters newsmaker event, Suga stressed the government’s resolve to respond “decisively” to excessive market moves.

The comments suggest Tokyo is not letting its guard down against the risk of a renewed yen spike, even as recent hawkish messages from U.S. Federal Reserve officials push up the dollar to around 102 yen, off lows below 100 hit this month.

POLICY COORDINATION INTACT

Japanese officials have repeatedly threatened currency intervention to deal with their headache of a strong yen. But they have held off for fear of infuriating Washington, which has warned against intervention that could be seen as seeking to give Japanese companies an unfair competitive advantage.

The BOJ’s decision in January to adopt negative interest rates has failed to arrest yen gains and drawn market criticism for hurting financial institutions’ profits.

Under pressure from Abe’s administration, the BOJ eased last month by expanding purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF). A majority of economists expect the bank to act again next month.

Asked if the BOJ had room to cut rates further, Suga said negative rates and any other steps the BOJ takes would give financial institutions “huge” benefits if they boost the economy.

On whether Japan could resort to “helicopter money”, or direct central bank underwriting of government debt, Suga said there was no clear definition of what helicopter meant.

He added it was important for the government and the BOJ to work closely together to beat deflation.

“The BOJ will conduct a review of its policies to achieve its 2 percent target. In any case, it’s important not to impair fiscal policy and the BOJ’s independence,” he said.

In a case of coordination last month, the government announced a spending package shortly after the BOJ eased policy, Suga said.

“I’m confident that we will see results if the government and the BOJ coordinate policies,” he said.

Data released on Tuesday showed household spending remained stubbornly weak in July even as the jobless rate hit a 21-year low.

(Additional reporting by Mayu Yoshida, William Mallard and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Nigerian Naira Falls to N1,641.27 Amid Improved FX Supply

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naira

The Naira closed the week weaker against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, October 11 to N1,641.27/$1, as the local currency lost 1.15 per cent at the specialised window, according to data obtained from FMDQ Securities Exchange.

The week’s closing value was down N18.70 compared to N1,622.57/$1 published in the preceding session on Thursday.

There was a surge in turnover recorded on Friday as secondary data showed an aggregate of $616.73 million cleared on record, compared to $145.56 million, a rise of $471.17 million or 323.7 per cent.

This is more than $543.5 million announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced that it sold to authorised dealer local deposit money banks (DMBs) to reduce observed market volatility driven by high demand for commodity imports and seasoned demand for FX between September 6 and 30, 2024.

The rise in supply could be a result of fresh CBN intervention in the market after it had paused for the past two weeks.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and the Euro in the week’s closing session at the official FX market.

Trading against the British currency, the local currency closed at N2,126.26/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,772.69/€1 against the Euro.

In the Parallel market, the Naira gained on the American currency as it closed at N1,673.54 to the US Dollar, a rise of 94 Kobo compared to N1,674.48/$1 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

The Naira strengthened its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N3.70 to sell at N2,136.68/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,140.38/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N7.54 to quote at N1,830.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,837.83/€1.

The local currency also appreciated N8.59 to close at N1,202.47 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Wednesday’s N1,211.06 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Records Marginal Rise on Dollar as Supply Weakens

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New Naira Notes

The Naira exchange rate improved slightly in the official forex market as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) failed to resume the retail Dutch auctions again.

The Naira rose by 0.16 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) to exchange at N1,622.57/$1 on Thursday, October 10 amid a further drop in supply at the official market.

The local currency rose on the greenback by N2.56 versus N1,625.13/$1 which it closed at the previous session on Wednesday.

Demand for foreign currency continues to overshadow FX liquidity, leaping exchange rate movement tight across the markets.

Data showed a decline in supply as the turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $145.56 million. This indicated that the session’s turnover fell by 14.7 percent, indicating an appreciation of $25.04 million compared to the $170.60 million published in the last trading session.

Meanwhile, the Naira witnessed losses against the Pound Sterling and the Euro. The domestic currency made a N41.18 slide on the British currency to wrap the penultimate session at N2,126.26/£1 from N2,085.08/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

In the same trend, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,772.69/€1 versus N1,746.58/€1, indicating an N26.11 depreciation.

In the Parallel market, the Naira closed at N1,674.48 to the US Dollar, a difference of N22.32 compared to N1,652.16 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

The gap between official and parallel market rates had crossed N120 in the recent past until the Central Bank of Nigeria FX intervention which has brought the gap within N50-N60 on the greenback.

The Naira weakened its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N27.19 to sell at N2,140.38/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,113.19/£1.

It followed the same route against the Euro as it appreciated N22.57 to quote at N1,837.83/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,815.26/€1.

The local currency also pulled a N4.66 depreciation to close on the Canadian Dollar at N1,211.06 against Wednesday’s N1,206.40 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollar at Black Market, Falls at Official FX Market

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The Naira strengthened on the US Dollar at the black market but went the other route in the official market on Wednesday, October 9.

The local currency gained N15.23 from the N1,667.39 it closed in the previous session to settle at N1,652.16 at the black market on Wednesday.

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), the local currency lost N63.37 or 4.1 percent to close at N1,625.13/$1, weaker from N1,561.76/$1 it closed on Tuesday.

The daily supply of FX as measured by secondary data from FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited indicated that turnover slumped by $83.08 million or 32.7 percent to $170.60 million from $253.68 million.

The decline in supply comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) eased with the latest data indicating that the country is not making enough foreign earnings.

For instance, Foreign Direct Investment into Nigeria in the second quarter of 2024 dropped to $29.83 million, a 65.33 percent drop compared to the $86.03 million recorded in the same period last year.

The development marks the lowest level in the last ten years.

It also reflected in both portfolio investments and foreign currency loans as Nigeria’s foreign portfolio investments for Q2 2024 stood at $1.40 billion, marking a sharp decline of 74.97 percent from $5.60 billion recorded in the preceding quarter, and a 65.3 percent drop compared to the $4.05 billion reported in Q2 2023.

Similarly, foreign loans, which constitute a substantial portion of Nigeria’s capital importation, recorded an inflow of $1.15 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting a 74.98 percent decrease from $4.60 billion in Q1 2024.

However, the Naira strengthened its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N46.54 to sell at N2,085.08/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,131.62/£1.

It followed the same route against the Euro as it appreciated N42.40 to quote at N1,746.58/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,788.98/€1.

The local currency also recorded a gain on the UK Pound Sterling in the black market, the Naira rose to N2,113.19 an N18.94 gain from N2,132.13 and on the Euro, the Naira pulled an N18.37 appreciation to close at N1,815.26 versus N1,833.63 and added 53 cents on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,206.40 against Monday’s N1,206.93 per CAD.

 

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