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Dollar Resumes Rally as Bulls Betting on Tightening Await Yellen

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Naira Appreciates as Manufacturers Lament Forex Scarcity

A gauge of the dollar rose for a fourth day as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech this week for clues on the path of U.S. interest rates.

The greenback strengthened versus all its developed-market peers as futures traders placed a 28 percent probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase next month and a 54 percent chance by December. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge of global exchange-rate volatility was at a one-month high before Yellen’s speech slated for Friday at the annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“Yellen has to take a clear hawkish stance to justify sustained dollar strength beyond this weekend,” said Nizam Idris, head of foreign-exchange and fixed-income strategy at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “While we expect the dollar to rebound in coming days, as recently built short-dollar positions are likely to be squared off ahead of the symposium, the currency could weaken again on even a subtle shift in Yellen’s views.”

A short position is a bet an asset’s price will drop.

The Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent as of 6:34 a.m. in London, following a three-day, 0.7 percent gain. The greenback bought 100.39 yen, compared with 100.24 in New York. It advanced 0.1 percent to $1.1294 per euro.
The JPMorgan gauge of price swings rose to 10.22 percent in New York, the highest since July 26.

Hedge funds and other money managers reduced net-bullish wagers on the dollar for the second straight week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bets that the dollar will rise outnumbered bearish positions by 125,117 in the week to Aug. 16, down from 144,268 a week earlier.

“There’ll be a greater risk of a bit of profit-taking in U.S. dollar shorts going into Jackson Hole and a bit of a bounce in the U.S. dollar,” said Thomas Averill, a managing director in Sydney at Rochford Capital, a currency and rates risk-management company. “The market is positioned for a dovish statement and the risk is that it disappoints.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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Forex

Investors in Turmoil as Zimbabwe’s New Currency Wipes Out 330% Stock Market Gain

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Zimbabwe’s financial landscape has been rattled by the introduction of the new currency ZiG, spelling trouble for investors who had sought refuge in the stock market amidst economic turmoil.

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) All Share Index has plummeted by 99.95% since the rollout of ZiG on April 5. This has erased more than 330% gain recorded earlier this year.

The introduction of ZiG, short for Zimbabwe Gold, was intended to provide stability to the country’s currency and succeed the embattled Zimbabwean dollar, which had already lost 80% of its value in 2024 alone.

However, instead of instilling confidence, the new currency has sent shockwaves through the stock market, leaving investors grappling with the fallout.

Prior to the currency conversion, investors had flocked to the stock market as a safe haven amid the Zimbabwean dollar’s depreciation and soaring inflation rates, which had reached a seven-month high of 55.3% in March.

However, the abrupt introduction of ZiG has reversed their fortunes, plunging share prices and trading volumes as the market grapples with the transition.

Justin Bgoni, the CEO of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, attributed the market’s poor performance to a combination of factors, including delays in currency conversion by financial institutions and tight liquidity conditions.

He noted that investors were also hesitant and uncertain about the value of assets denominated in ZiG terms, further exacerbating the situation.

The conversion of share prices from the old currency to ZiG at a swap rate of 1 ZiG to 2,498 Zimbabwean dollars has led to a significant decline in trading volumes and revenues for brokerage firms.

Lloyd Mlotshwa, head of research at Harare-based brokerage IH Securities, highlighted that brokerages have experienced a substantial hit to earnings, with some seeing their revenues drop by at least 50%.

Stockbrokers in the capital, Harare, described the current market conditions as “a painful early winter,” marked by limited trading volumes and uncertainty. They anticipate broader ramifications across the stock market architecture, affecting not only stockbrokers but also custodians, government taxes, and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange itself.

Enock Rukarwa, a research and investment consultant at FBC Securities, said stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income and pointed out that the majority of the economy still transacting in US dollars.

He suggested that stockbroking boutiques need to adapt their business models to mitigate the impact on commission income.

Imara Asset Management, Zimbabwe’s largest independent brokerage overseeing $100 million in assets, warned of further upheaval in the coming months as share prices adjusted to ZiG.

The company’s CEO and CIO, John Legat and Shelton Sibanda, criticized the decision to adopt ZiG instead of US dollars, considering that many listed businesses operate in USD.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 23rd, 2024

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New Naira Notes

As of April 23rd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,250 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,290 and sell it at N1,280 on Monday, April 22nd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,250
  • Selling Rate: N1,240

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