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Forex Weekly Outlook August 22 – 26

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Swiss Coins And Banknotes As The Swiss Franc Weakens Against Dollar

Global financial markets reacted to comments from US senior Fed officials last week, after a report shows a healthy manufacturing sector with 0.7 percent increase in industrial production and 0.5 percent surge in manufacturing output with a capacity utilization rate of 75.9 percent — the highest since December 2014.

Although, consumer prices came out flat at 0.0 percent as expected, building permits remained moderate with a resilient labor market (unemployment claims of 262,000). This week, investors are looking to an annual meeting of central bankers from around the world in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at which Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak, for clues on the course of monetary policy. A hawkish outlook will strengthen the dollar as investors are expected to price in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

In the UK, the first full post-Brexit data shows retail sales jumped to 1.4 percent in July, indicating that low interest rates (0.25%), unemployment rate (4.9%) and inflation rate (0.6%) are supporting consumer spending against the widely predicted post-Brexit doom. Also, it is imperative to note that the drop in the pound exchange rate encouraged tourists to spend more, so it might be too early to decipher the improvement from the usual summer volatility – especially with a better weather like this year. The pound rose 0.9 percent against the US dollar to $1.3183 after the data was released, but quickly retreated following a surge in the odds of the Fed raising rates this year.

In Canada, retail sales plunged 0.1 percent in June to $44.1 billion, but few experts believed spending will rebound in the third quarter – mainly because of the child benefit for lower income and middle income partners due in July. Again, annual inflation rate fell below the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent target to 1.3 percent and short of 1.5 percent expected in July, as lower energy prices weighed on consumer prices and the struggling manufacturing sector. Overall, the Canadian economy is experiencing a lackluster growth, but the recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Kahlid al-Falih has helped the commodity dependent economy/currency modulate part of its losses.

New Zealand continued to differ speculations even after inflation report disappointed. The economy added more jobs in the second quarter and reduced unemployment from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent. Even though, the currency is yet to cap its gains so far, the strong US data released last week and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates later in the year, may finally pave the way for the RBZN monetary expansion as explained last week and reinforce sellers’ interest, but a break of 0.6989 support will be needed to validate this bearish stance. Generally, New Zealand economy is solid, and one of the few with room for additional expansion if the need arises.

Australia added 26,200 jobs and reduced its unemployment rate by 0.1 percent to 5.7 percent in July. While the economy is far from its 2 percent inflation target, construction, tourism and education industries have helped keep its unemployment rate at a record low. This week, AUDUSD and EURAUD top my list.

AUDUSD

For a while the Australian dollar has been overpriced, but yet continued to gain against the US dollar and its peers. Last week, sellers jumped on the pair immediately Fed officials signals possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates later in the year, and break the ascending channel started on May 30. This week, if the markets continue to price in that possibility, the strong dollar will likely weigh on the pair and may finally give us 0.7505 as explained last week. I believe a technical break below the ascending channel should be enough to force traders to start pricing in the 25 basis points cut. This week, I am bearish on this pair as long as 0.7673 resistance holds.

AUDUSDDaily

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EURAUD

This pair has gained 487 pips since Aug 11th, and positioned for even more. Here is why I think this pair may offer buyers opportunity, the Euro-area has shown resilience since the U.K exit the European Union, and has complemented its moderate fundamental with strategic monetary policy. Another reason is the U.K post-Brexit retail sales report released last week, would likely reduce the heavy negativity surrounding the Brexit and boost the business activities of the Euro-area.

EURAUDDaily

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Technically, after breaking 1.4665 resistance on Wednesday, the Thursday’s candlestick that closed as a bullish pin bar on the daily time frame was the first sign of bullish continuation. While the morning start pattern formed on weekly time frame validate this stance. This week, as long as 1.4665 support holds, I am bullish on this pair with 1.5008 as the target. Euro-area manufacturing PMI is due on Tuesday.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Tuesday, August 3, 2021

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nigerian currency - Investors King

Naira gained N1 against the United States Dollar on Tuesday to open the day at N504 at the parallel market, popularly known as the black market. Against the British Pound and the Euro, the Naira exchanged at N710 and 600, respectively.

At the bureau de change section, Naira remained at N520 to a United States Dollar, N715 to a British Pound and N603 to a Euro. That was after the Central Bank of Nigeria halted forex allocations to BDCs operators across the nation.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
03/08/2021 504/510* 700/710* 590/600* 70/75 410/420 305/330
02/08/2021 505/512 700/710 590/600 70/75 410/420 305/330
30/07/2021 508/515 705/712 590/597 70/75 410/420 305/330
29/07/2021 512/520 705/715 590/600 70/75 410/420 300/325
28/07/2021 515/525 700/710 590/600 63/70 410/420 300/320
27/07/2021 500/505 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
26/07/2021 500/504 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
23/07/2021 500/504 698/705 588/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
03/08/2021 500/520 705/715 590/603
02/08/2021 500/520 705/715 590/603
30/07/2021 500/515 705/715 590/603
29/07/2021 510/525 705/715 590/602
28/07/2021 510/520 695/706 585/600
27/07/2021 490/500 690/700 580/595
26/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
23/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

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Forex

Banks CEOs Declare Readiness, Assured No Hidden Charges In Forex Sale

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

Chief executives of banks have assured no hidden charges in the sale of foreign exchange as they declared their readiness to meet the demands of Forex in the country.

The CEOs under the aegis of the Committee of Chief Executives of Banks at a virtual parley with the media also said they are not interested in procuring bureau de change licenses to dispense the new responsibility thrust on them by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN)

At a media briefing chaired by the chairman, and the managing director of Access Bank, Herbert Wigwe, other CEOs in attendance include Segun Agbaje of GTCO, Yemisi Edun of FCMG amongst others.

The briefing was in reaction to the CBN circular with Ref No: BSD/DIR/PUB/LAB/14/052 which gave a directive to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) to set up teller points at designated branches and sell Foreign Exchange customers in need.

The directive in the circular signed by Haruna Mustafa, Director, Bank Supervision Department, was a follow up to the stoppage by the CBN, of the sale of forex to the Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in the country.

With this development, banks are now to attend to legitimate FX requests for Personal Travel Allowance, Business Travel Allowance, tuition fees, medical payments and SMEs transactions, among others.

The regulator also disclosed that a toll-free line had been set up at the CBN for bank customers to escalate unresolved complaints related to their FX requests.

Speaking at the media briefing, Herbert Wigwe assured of the readiness of the banks to meet the demands of the customers without any additional costs, noting that they have more capacity than the BDCs

“Banks have broader network than the previous sources and if you look at the branch network of all the banks in the country, I am not sure that the alternatives have resources like banks to provide this service to everybody”.

He allayed the fear of hidden charges said the transaction comes at no additional cost to the customers.

“There is no one-cent additional charge. It is unfortunate that bankers always come under pressure every time because of accusations of hidden charges. There is no additional charge in this service,” he stated.

Segun Agbaje, the group managing director of GTCO, promised that the banks will provide several channels for the customers to get their supply for their needs as he assured of the readiness of the banking system.

“They can start to come from today. We are ready to fund their demands”. stating that different banks have different strategies to ensure there are no hitches.

He stated that the control is centralised in each bank while the service is decentralised so as to be able to cater to many at the same time.

“We will run a transparent system and the compliance will be very strict because there will be sanctions. Anyone that refuses to comply with the rules will be sanctioned by the regulator and the law enforcement agencies” as he warned those that could want to come with fake documentation or passport to beat the process.

In her contribution, Yemisi Edun of FCMB assured that customers will have the same experience across the board irrespective of the bank as she allayed that the services may be poor in some banks.

“We have done this with remittance where we dedicate desks to attend to customers and customers will be directed to the desks once they have proper documentation.

In conclusion, Wigwe stated that apart from the injection that could be coming from the CBN, the banks also have their sources for foreign exchange which include from International Monetary Transfer Organisation, Diaspora remittances, and others from where they can meet the customer’s demands.

“We are putting structure and infrastructure in place to meet the demands of the customers but they should come with proper documentation” Wigwe stated

The apex bank expects the DMBs to adequately publicize the locations of the designated branches and make necessary arrangements to sell FX to customers in cash and/or electronically in compliance with extant regulations,

While CBN said the banks should ensure that no customer was turned back or refused FX provided that documentation and all other requirements are satisfied, it also outlaws undue delays, rationing and/or diversion of FX while it compels DMBs to establish electronic application and alert systems to update customers on the status of their FX requests, the circular added.

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Forex

BDCs Continues To Provide Forex Services After CBN Halts Sales Of Forex To Operators

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naira

The recent announcement by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suspending dollar sales to Bureau de Change Operators would not stop the forex retailers from conducting their services in line with their operating licenses and guidelines.

According to a statement by the President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, BDCs will continue to provide foreign exchange services to the public.

“BDCs are licensed to provide retail FX services, including buying from the public and also selling to end-users for allowable transactions namely Personal Travel Allowance (PTA), Business Travel Allowance (BTA), payment of medical and school fees,” Gwadabe said.

He added that while the dollar sale from CBN had helped in enhancing supply, the fact remains that BDCs are empowered to source FX from other sources and also to provide various services to members of the public.

“While the CBN has stopped dollar sale to BDCs, it has not canceled their operating licenses, or banned them from providing FX services to members of the public”, he added.

“At ABCON, we urge our members to see the CBN pronouncement as a wake-up call and opportunity to widen their customer base and deepen their business.

“ABCON has always worked with the CBN to ensure proper working of the FX market and in line with this principle, we will engage with the apex bank to address and resolve all the issues that led to the recent action, including identification and sanctioning of earring BDCs, where necessary.

“In addition to this, and in view of the fact that BDCs have been very effective in ensuring stable exchange rate, ABCON will work with relevant stakeholders including law enforcement agencies to develop a National BDC Policy with the aim of enhancing the contribution of the BDC subsector to the nation’s economy”, he said.

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