Markets

U.S. Consumer Prices Unchanged in July as Fuel Costs Retreated

Published

8 years ago

August 16, 2016

The U.S. cost of living was little changed in July, a sign subdued inflationary pressures will give Federal Reserve policy makers reason to keep interest rates low.

It was the first time in five months the consumer-price index failed to advance and followed a 0.2 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed Tuesday in Washington. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1 percent, less than projected.

Inflation continues to tread below the Fed’s goal as U.S. companies remain challenged by frugal consumers and competition from cheap goods made overseas. With price pressures elusive, central bankers will be less willing to raise borrowing costs.

“The Fed still has plenty of time before raising rates,” Scott Brown, St. Petersburg, Florida-based chief economist for Raymond James Financial Inc., said before the report. “The belief was that disinflationary pressures will go down and then inflation will move to the Fed’s goal, but it seems that may take longer.”

Housing Starts

Also Tuesday, a Commerce Department report showed housing starts unexpectedly climbed in July to the second-highest pace of the economic expansion, indicating the housing industry remains an area of strength for the economy.

The reading on the consumer-price index matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 82 economists. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.1 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.

Prices increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ended in July, after rising 1 percent in the year through June.

The increase in the core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, was the smallest since March and fell short of the 0.2 percent gain projected in the Bloomberg survey. The gauge was up 2.2 percent from July 2015, following a 2.3 percent advance in the year ended June.

Energy costs fell 1.6 percent from a month earlier, the first drop in five months, while food prices were little changed.

Hotels, Airlines

The biggest slump in hotel room rates in eight years and the largest drop in airline fares since July 2015, offset continued rent increases, which had been propping up core consumer prices. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent, the biggest gain since February.

The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, which is the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures measure, hasn’t matched the central bank’s 2 percent goal since 2012.

The CPI is the broadest of three price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes all goods and services. About 60 percent of the index covers prices consumers pay for services from medical visits to airline fares, movie tickets and rents.

The steady cost of living boosted paychecks in July, a separate report from the Labor Department showed Tuesday. Hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.4 percent in July from the prior month, the biggest gain since January, and were up 1.7 percent over the past 12 months.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

Published

14 hours ago

April 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

Commodities

Dangote Refinery Cuts Diesel Price to ₦1,000 Amid Economic Boost

Published

16 hours ago

April 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the price of diesel from ₦1200 to ₦1,000 per litre.

This price adjustment is in response to the demand of oil marketers, who last week clamoured for a lower price.

Just three weeks ago, the refinery had already made waves by lowering the price of diesel to ₦1,200 per litre, a 30% reduction from the previous market price of around ₦1,600 per litre.

Now, with the latest reduction to ₦1,000 per litre, Dangote Refinery is demonstrating its commitment to providing accessible and affordable fuel to consumers across the country.

This move is expected to have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economy, particularly in tackling high inflation rates and promoting economic stability.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the owner of the refinery, expressed confidence that the reduction in diesel prices would contribute to a drop in inflation, offering hope for improved economic conditions.

Dangote stated that the Nigerian people have demonstrated patience amidst economic challenges, and he believes that this reduction in diesel prices is a step in the right direction.

He pointed out the aggressive devaluation of the naira, which has significantly impacted the country’s economy, and sees the price reduction as a positive development that will benefit Nigerians.

With this latest move, Dangote Refinery is not only reshaping the fuel market but also reaffirming its commitment to driving positive change and progress in Nigeria.

The reduction in diesel prices is expected to provide relief to consumers, businesses, and various sectors of the economy, paving the way for a brighter and more prosperous future.

Crude Oil

IEA Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast by 100,000 Barrels per Day

Published

2 days ago

April 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The agency cited a sluggish start to the year in developed economies as a key factor contributing to the downward revision.

According to the latest Oil Market Report released by the IEA, global oil consumption has continued to experience a slowdown in growth momentum with first-quarter growth estimated at 1.6 million bpd.

This figure falls short of the IEA’s previous forecast by 120,000 bpd, indicating a more sluggish demand recovery than anticipated.

With much of the post-Covid rebound already realized, the IEA now projects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024.

Furthermore, growth is expected to decelerate further to 1.1 million bpd in the following year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.

This revision comes just a month after the IEA had raised its outlook for 2024 oil demand growth by 110,000 bpd from its February report.

At that time, the agency had expected demand growth to reach 1.3 million bpd for 2024, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the current revision.

The IEA’s latest demand growth estimates diverge significantly from those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While the IEA projects modest growth, OPEC maintains its forecast of robust global oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd for 2024, consistent with its previous assessment.

However, uncertainties loom over the global oil market, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

The IEA has highlighted the impact of drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries, which could potentially disrupt fuel markets globally.

Up to 600,000 bpd of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter due to these attacks, according to the IEA’s assessment.

Furthermore, unplanned outages in Europe and tepid Chinese activity have contributed to a lowered forecast of global refinery throughputs for 2024.

The IEA now anticipates refinery throughputs to rise by 1 million bpd to 83.3 million bpd, reflecting the challenges facing the refining sector.

The situation has raised concerns among policymakers, with the United States expressing worries over the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

There are fears that these attacks could lead to retaliatory measures from Russia and result in higher international oil prices.

As the global oil market navigates through these challenges, stakeholders will closely monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to adapt to the evolving landscape.