Markets

Housing Starts in U.S. Climbed to a Five-Month High in July

Published

7 years ago

August 16, 2016

U.S. home construction unexpectedly accelerated in July to the fastest pace in five months, indicating the housing industry remains an area of support for the economy.

Residential starts increased 2.1 percent to a 1.211 million annualized rate, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, from 1.186 million in June, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday in Washington. Permits, a proxy for future construction, were little changed.

Builders are responding to the strongest home sales since the start of the economic expansion, made possible by robust hiring and cheap financing. More houses were under construction last month than at any time since the beginning of 2008, indicating homebuilders were making headway in filling orders.

“Job growth is still the key driving indicator, but it’s still also low mortgage rates, as well as lending standards that are a bit easier in residential as a whole,” Anika Khan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in New York, said before the report. “The fundamentals look sound for the housing market.”

The pace of housing starts is the second-fastest of the expansion behind the 1.213 million in both February and June 2015. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 1.18 million rate. Estimates ranged from 1.11 million to 1.2 million.

The starts data, while very volatile from month to month, have held in a narrow range over the past year, indicating residential real estate will have trouble adding to its post-recession rebound. Still, the report showed a wide range for error, with a 90 percent chance that last month’s figure fell between a 6.7 percent decline and a 10.9 percent gain.

Building Permits

Permits were little changed at 1.15 million annualized rate in July, indicating there was less scope for additional gains in housing starts in coming months.

What’s more, builders already had more homes under construction in July than at any time since January 2008. The number of multifamily dwellings with five or more units under construction reached the highest level since October 1974.

Construction of single-family houses rose 0.5 percent to a 770,000 rate, also the most since February.

Groundbreaking on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, increased 5 percent to an annual rate of 441,000, the most since September.

Starts rose in three of four regions, paced by a 3.5 percent gain in the South and a 2.3 percent increase in the Midwest. Construction was up 15.5 percent in the Northeast and down 5.9 percent in the West.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Steady Ahead of Crucial OPEC+ Meeting Amidst Fed Rate Hike Signals

Published

1 day ago

November 29, 2023

Investors King

Oil prices maintained their significant gains as traders anticipate the outcome of a crucial OPEC+ meeting on supply while considering signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies.

Global benchmark Brent hovered below $82 a barrel, having surged over 2% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate traded under $77.

The OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for Thursday to set policies for 2024, is currently grappling with a dispute over output quotas for some African members.

The recent rise in crude prices is underpinned by a weakening dollar, with a Bloomberg gauge of the US currency reaching its lowest level since August.

Federal Reserve policymakers, including Governor Christopher Waller, have hinted at an impending pause in the series of rate hikes, contributing to the bullish sentiment in oil markets.

A softer dollar enhances the appeal of commodities for international buyers.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist for IG Asia Pte in Singapore, commented on the interplay of factors, stating, “The US dollar was dragged lower on a build-up in dovish expectations, which was very much cheered on by oil prices.”

However, concerns persist about OPEC+’s ability to address the challenges in the oil market effectively.

Despite the recent gains, oil is on track for a consecutive monthly decline due to increased supply from non-OPEC countries, intensifying pressure on the cartel and its allies to consider more significant output cuts.

The International Energy Agency’s earlier assessment indicated a potential return to a global crude surplus in the coming year.

In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 817,000-barrel decline in nationwide inventories last week, potentially marking the first drop in six weeks, pending confirmation from government data.

This development may add support to oil prices and impact the ongoing dynamics in the energy market.

Crude Oil

Oil Prices Stabilize as OPEC+ Weighs Deeper Output Cuts Amid Global Supply Concerns

Market Evaluates OPEC+ Decision Amidst Bearish Sentiment and Global Supply Worries

Published

2 days ago

November 28, 2023

Investors King

Oil prices steadied after a recent downward trend as the market assessed the possibility of OPEC+ implementing deeper output cuts to balance the scales against signs of a global supply surplus.

Brent crude hovered below $80 a barrel following a four-day decline, while West Texas Intermediate dipped below $75.

OPEC+’s leader, Saudi Arabia, has urged other member nations to reduce their production quotas to bolster markets, though resistance from some members complicates the decision.

Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd, cautioned oil bears against underestimating Saudi Arabia’s determination, although achieving unanimous support from member states could prove challenging.

The oil market has witnessed a roughly 20% decline since late September due to ample supplies and concerns about the global economic landscape.

This has spurred expectations for the 23-nation alliance to take corrective action at its upcoming online meeting.

A Bloomberg survey revealed that approximately half of respondents anticipate OPEC+ implementing additional measures to tighten the market.

Failure to announce an extra cut of around 1 million barrels per day on top of Saudi Arabia’s existing curbs might result in prices sinking to the low $70s per barrel, according to analysts at Eurasia Group led by Raad Alkadiri.

Reflecting this bearish sentiment, hedge funds have significantly reduced their combined net-long positions in Brent and WTI to the lowest levels since late June.

The International Energy Agency’s warning earlier this month of an impending surplus in markets next year due to a significant deceleration in demand growth has added urgency to OPEC+’s deliberations.

Meanwhile, disruptions caused by a storm in the Black Sea have halted commodity loadings, including crude, from key ports in Russia and Ukraine.

The storm is expected to persist throughout the week, according to Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC.

Crude Oil

A Relaxed Start to the Week But Much More to Come, OPEC+ Eyed

Published

3 days ago

November 27, 2023

Investors King

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

It’s been quite a calm start to the week which isn’t entirely surprising given the lack of events on the calendar today. That said, things are expected to pick up with the rest of the week serving up some big economic releases and a hugely important OPEC+ meeting.

All data now, particularly that of the US, is being looked at through the prism of what it will mean for the final central bank meeting of the year and the new projections it’ll be accompanied by.

Since the last meeting, the data has been encouraging and we’ll get another batch before the Fed meets on 13 December. This week we’ll get the October PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred measure – as well as third quarter GDP, ISM manufacturing and jobless claims.

Outside of the US, we’ll get flash HICP inflation data for the eurozone, PMIs from China, CPI figures for Australia and a rate decision from the RBNZ. On top of all that, there’s a plethora of central bank speakers making appearances which will keep us on our toes.

BoE Governor Bailey got the week off to a start on that front, pushing back against expectations for rate cuts from Q2, claiming he doesn’t expect any for the “foreseeable future”. A vague commitment as ever but all we can expect from policymakers for now. There’s still a way to go and as Bailey highlighted, getting from peak to now is likely to be much easier than from here to 2%.

Oil choppy ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting

Arguably, the OPEC+ meeting will be the week’s most impactful event. Not just because any decision could have direct consequences for price and therefore inflation but also due to the meeting already being pushed back by four days, so there’s clearly some disagreement within the alliance.

The group has always found a way to get an agreement over the line before, even if that means the biggest producers taking on more of the additional commitments so it’s probably safe to say something similar will be achieved this week. But the question is how far they’ll push it, given the recent trend in oil prices and increasing concerns around global growth next year.

Gold eyeing record highs?

Gold has got the week off to a strong start, up around half a percent and hitting a six-month high. It just about managed to end last week above the psychologically challenging $2,000 level – where it’s repeatedly been pushed back from over the last month – and it seems that has propelled it on today.

We’re still seeing some push back though but this break has been backed by softer US data in recent weeks and less hawkish commentary from the Fed. That may be the difference this time around and enable it to look up towards record highs, only a few percent above where it currently finds itself.