Connect with us

Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook August 15 – 19

Published

on

Forex Weekly Outlook August 15 - 19

Forex Weekly Outlook August 15 – 19

The US dollar lost against most of its counterparts last week, even after the economy added 292,000 jobs in June and 255,000 in July. Most analysts attributed the weakness to worse than expected 1.2 percent GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the year, while some economists blamed it on surge in global risks and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve’s rate hike this year.

Either way, retail sales added to the dollar woes on Friday, plunging to a year low in July. Another sign that the consumer spending that has been supporting the US economy is waning as uncertainty increases. Although, unemployment claims came out better than expected and remains below 300,000 for the 75th consecutive weeks –yet consumer sentiment rose less than predicted.

But if July inflation rate and building permits came out positive on Tuesday, the US dollar will likely gain back part of its losses as investors are expected to respond positively because it would cast doubt on the validity of the retail sales figure in the long term. Also, it is good to note that the current market trend is largely being influenced by speculations, like we’ve seen in the Kiwi and Aussie dollar when market participants refused to price in the 25 basis points cut because according to them it was too small.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points from 2.5 percent to 2.0 percent, but the local currency rose to a year high, peaking at 73.37 cents to a US dollar as banks reportedly passed just 5 – 10 of the 25 basis points to customers and increased deposit rates for savers by 0.5 percent. Hurting monetary expansion by the central bank to pressure costs in order to boost weak inflation. However, economists and experts have said the central bank needs to lower rate by another 25 basis points to 1.75 percent before the current monetary policy will be effective.

Whereas, retail sales rose in the second quarter of the year by 2.3 percent, exceeding 1 percent expected by most economists and 1 percent recorded in the preceding quarter. This indicates that the economy (consumer spending) is picking up even with high foreign exchange rate and weak consumer prices, but the weak China’s data released on Friday weighed on the local currency, plunging it against the US dollar even after US retail sales came out below expectation. However, if the RBNZ decides to hold off on further stimulus to monitor current improvement, especially with the second quarter employment change, unemployment rate and producer price index due on Wednesday, current stimulus may eventually crystallize.

Last week, the pound remained the worst performing currency for a second week after the Bank of England restarted its stimulus program on Monday. The pound declined 1.2 percent to $1.2911 against the US dollar, and weakened 1.9 percent to 86.51 pence per euro. This week, I will be looking at two currency pairs USDCAD and AUDUSD.

USDCAD

Last week, the Canadian dollar gained with crude oil, following the comments of Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Kahlid al-Falih on Thursday that the oil rich nation is prepared to discuss how to stabilize oil prices at an informal OPEC meeting in September.

USDCADDaily

Click to enlarge

Since then, the Canadian dollar has gained 122 pips against the US dollar, and currently trading below 1.3033 resistance and upward trend line drawn two weeks ago. This week, as long as 1.3033 resistance holds, I am bearish on USDCAD with 1.2723 as the target. The data for Canada’s July manufacturing sales will be released on Tuesday, while inflation rate and retail sales are due on Friday.

AUDUSD

Two weeks ago I explained why I won’t be buying bullish Aussie dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia expanded monetary policy. Last week, the currency climbed as high as 77.58 cents to a US dollar before retreating due to weak Chinese economic data, this week I think the weak Chinese data of Friday will likely reinforce sellers’ interest considering the 25 basis points cut is yet to be priced in and open up 0.7505 support, but first a break of 0.7588 is important for a bearish confirmation below the channel.

AUDUSDDaily

Click to enlarge

Australia’s monetary policy minutes is due on Tuesday, while both unemployment rate and employment change will be released on Thursday.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, September 17, 2021

Published

on

Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Friday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N565, N775 and N655 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 560/570* 763/770* 647/655* 70/75 430/440 310/330
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/09/2021 555/565 760/775 640/655
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
9/16/2021 US DOLLAR 409.57 410.07 410.57
9/16/2021 POUNDS STERLING 566.763 567.4549 568.1468
9/16/2021 EURO 482.0229 482.6114 483.1998
9/16/2021 SWISS FRANC 442.6827 443.2231 443.7635
9/16/2021 YEN 3.7434 3.748 3.7526
9/16/2021 CFA 0.7191 0.7291 0.7391
9/16/2021 WAUA 583.3071 584.0192 584.7313
9/16/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 63.5338 63.6118 63.6898
9/16/2021 RIYAL 109.2012 109.3345 109.4678
9/16/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 28.3101 28.3446 28.3792

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

Continue Reading

Forex

CBN Goes After Abokifx, Freezes Bank Accounts for Publishing Black Market Rates

Published

on

Abokifx - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks to freeze all the bank accounts associated with AbokiFX and its owner, Oniwinde Olusegun Adedotun, for publishing foreign exchange rates other than the rates determined by the CBN.

The apex bank had warned publishers to desist from publishing forex rates determined by the unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market, where speculators and hoarders largely manipulate the nation’s foreign exchange rates as seen in recent weeks.

In an email to publishers by the NGN Project, presumably acting on behalf of the CBN, the organisation had quoted section 11 sub-section 1(c) and 2 (a,b) of the National Economic Intelligence Committee Act of 2004 that stated “it shall be an offence for any person, association of individuals or body corporate (whether public or private) to publish or cause to be published exchange and interest rates other than the rates determined by the Bank from time to time.”

The Act stipulated N100,000 fine or imprisonment for a term of two years or both for individual and N500,000 fine and suspension or revocation of certificate of registration or cerificate of incorporation for association or individuals or corporate body.

This was after the central bank halted the sale of forex to bureau de change operators after accusing them of aiding the activities of criminals at the unregulated black market and been a channel for illicit financial flow. The move, which resulted in chronic forex scarcity and all time high foreign exchange rate, has forced the apex bank to go after publishers in effort to discourage people from patronising the black market and to force Nigerians to reject the unreasonable exchange rate of N567 to a United States Dollar and approach their banks for N412 to N415 per US Dollars.

Despite covid-19 challenges and limited forex generation, the apex bank has continued to support the Nigerian Naira and go after forex manipulators.

The NGN Project had described AbokiFX.com and its owner has criminals ‘committing crimes against the Nigerian state’. See the email CBN sent to publishers below.

 

Continue Reading

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, September 16, 2021

Published

on

Naira - Investors King

Naira continued its downward trend against other currencies on Thursday as it plunged to N570 against the United States Dollar at the black market. The local currency traded at N770 and N655 to British Pound and Euro, respectively.

Persistent forex scarcity amid a series of in effective policies have made access to forex impossible for most of businesses that operates in largely import dependent African biggest economy.

Nigeria’s forex reserves, the means in which the nation, service its dollar consuming 200 million population has been on a decline in recent weeks despite crude oil trading at over a year high of $73 a barrel. Some of the factors that have crippled the ability of central bank to cushion the economy with enough forex is low crude oil production, partly due to production cap, weak local manufacturing sector that has made the nation a huge import dependent economy, the ongoing crisis between herders and farmers, rising costs even with falling inflation, etc.

At the bureau de change section, Naira exchanged at N555, N765 and N645 to a United States Dollar, British Pound and Euro common currency.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had stopped the sale of forex to the bureau de change operators to plug forex leakages and curb activities of criminal elements, the decision has worsen forex availability. See other forex rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 560/570 763/770 647/655 70/75 430/440 310/330
15/09/2021 552/562 754/760 640/648 70/75 430/440 310/330
14/09/2021 550/557 754/760 640/645 70/75 430/440 310/330
13/09/2021 543/550 742/750 630/636 70/75 425/435 310/330
10/09/2021 538/545 738/745 630/636 70/75 420/432 310/330
09/09/2021 532/540 730/740 627/632 70/76 419/430 310/330
08/09/2021 528/535 723/730 623/629 70/75 419/426 310/330

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
16/09/2021 548/555 753/765 635/645
15/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
14/09/2021 548/555 750/761 635/645
13/09/2021 535/550 737/745 630/636
11/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
10/09/2021 530/547 735/745 630/635
09/09/2021 528/538 730/738 625/630
08/09/2021 525/531 718/730 616/625

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

 

Continue Reading




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending