European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the International Energy Agency said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent, with miners and energy producers trimming losses, as crude pared a drop of as much as 1.5 percent after the IEA forecast. Asian equities fell. New Zealand’s dollar surged to a one-year high after the country’s central bank cut interest rates and signaled a more gradual easing path than some investors had anticipated. Nickel snapped a four-day advance. Ukraine’s 2019 Eurobond fell the most since June amid signs tension is increasing with Russia.
Crude entered a bear market last week and the outlook remains clouded as Saudi Arabia and Iran refuse to give ground in their war for market share, with both boosting output just days after OPEC announced an informal meeting to discuss ways to stabilize falling prices. Exacerbating the problem is global demand, which remains weak even as policy makers from Frankfurt to Tokyo engage in unprecedented stimulus to boost their economies. A strengthening jobs market in the U.S. has yet to convince traders that the world’s biggest economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.
A gauge of U.K. home sales pointed to the fastest decline in transactions since the global financial crisis in 2008, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors data showed on Thursday. Singapore cut the top end of its 2016 growth forecast after the economy expanded less than previously estimated in the second quarter. Financial markets in Japan were shut for a holiday.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $41.63 a barrel at 11:15 a.m. in London, after sinking 2.5 percent on Wednesday when official data showed U.S. supplies increased by 1.06 million barrels last week.
The IEA said in its monthly report that an increase in the volume of crude processed this quarter will shrink brimming stockpiles even as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pump at all-time highs. The updated outlook comes a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said weakness in global crude markets may persist as demand slows seasonally and fuel inventories remain abundant.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, boosted oil output to a record 10.67 million barrels a day in July, according to OPEC data published Wednesday. In Iran, production has risen to 3.85 million barrels a day — the highest since 2008 — according to comments from Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh reported by the Fars news agency.
Weak oil hurt sentiment on demand for commodities, ending a four-day rally in nickel. The metal dropped 0.9 percent to $10,765 a metric ton after Monday touching a one-year high. Zinc fell 0.2 percent and tin lost 0.8 percent.
“Crude oil’s damping market sentiment for metals,” Zhao Qiannan, an analyst with Beijing Newnie E-commerce Co., said by phone from Shanghai.
TThe Stoxx 600 rebounded from a decline of as much as 0.2 percent, as gauges of miners and oil companies came off session lows. The number of shares changing hands was about a third less than the 30-day average.
Zurich Insurance Group AG added 4.2 percent after saying earnings fell less than projected. KBC Group NV advanced 5.5 percent after posting better-than-expected profit and revenue and cutting its forecast for 2016 loan-loss provisions in Ireland.
K+S AG, Europe’s biggest potash producer, slipped 9.2 percent after saying it expects lower earnings in 2016. Thyssenkrupp AG lost 0.7 percent after Germany’s biggest steelmaker reported a decline in quarterly profit.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2 percent after the underlying equity benchmark declined 0.3 percent on Wednesday, retreating from a near-record high. Investors will look Thursday to earnings from retailers including Macy’s Inc. for indications of the health of the American consumer.
Stocks have benefited from better-than-forecast earnings this season, particularly among technology companies. With about 90 percent of S&P 500 members having posted results, 78 percent have beaten profit predictions and 56 percent have topped sales projections.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.2 percent, slipping from a one-year high. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.6 percent as benchmarks lost ground in Shanghai and Taiwan.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.4 percent, led by financial companies, after the head of the city’s bourse operator told CNBC an exchange trading link with the Chinese city of Shenzhen will soon be announced. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. jumped 2.9 percent, its biggest increase since May.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.1 percent after advancing five days to the highest close since July 2015. Gulf stocks declined on Thursday, with the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index losing 0.4 percent, trimming this week’s gain to 1.3 percent.
The kiwi rose as high as 73.41 U.S. cents, its strongest level since May 2015, before trading 0.5 percent stronger on the day at 72.40. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent. While the cut was expected by all 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the swaps market had priced in a 20 percent chance of a half-point reduction.
“Even though the 25 basis-point rate cut was fully priced in, there was uncertainty that the RBNZ could even have opted for a 50 basis-point rate cut,” said Angus Nicholson, a market analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd. “Once the 50 basis-point fears turned out to be unfounded the kiwi dollar promptly rallied.”
Bloomberg’s dollar index, a gauge of the greenback versus 10 major peers, rose 0.1 percent. It ended the last session at a seven-week low as the probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase this year slipped by four percentage points to 41 percent in the futures market.
The Swedish krona was little changed, erasing gains after touching the strongest level against the dollar in more than a month, following better-than-expected July inflation data Thursday.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index dropped 0.1 percent. South Korea’s won snapped a five-day advance, weakening 0.5 percent after reaching its strongest level in more than a year on Wednesday. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol kept the benchmark interest rate at 1.25 percent and said the authority has scope for more policy adjustments. The ringgit slid 0.4 percent as lower crude prices dimmed prospects for Malaysia, the region’s only major net oil exporter.
The MSCI currency gauge has climbed 3.6 percent since China’s surprise yuan devaluation a year ago roiled global markets. Brazil’s real led gains in the past 12 months, up 11 percent, followed by South Korea’s won with a 7.2 percent jump. The biggest loser was Argentina’s peso, declining 37 percent after the country scrapped currency controls. The yuan has dropped 4.8 percent in the period.
The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade rose two basis points to 1.51 percent. It fell on Wednesday as 10-year notes were auctioned at the lowest yield in four years amid near-record demand from a group of buyers that includes foreign central banks and mutual funds. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $15 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday.
U.K. 10-year bonds were little changed, after a three-day rally in the securities pushed yields to a record low on Wednesday. Gilts have been boosted this week on signs the Bank of England may need to pay higher prices to purchase enough to meet the target for its expanded quantitative-easing program.
Ukraine’s 2019 Eurobond fell the most since June 27, sending the yield up 39 basis points to 7.85 percent. Officials in Kiev warned that Russia’s accusation that its agents engaged in “terror” tactics in Crimea may be a ploy to justify the Kremlin escalating the military conflict as fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists intensified in the country’s east. Russia’s ruble slipped 0.2 percent.
Yields on Australian bonds due in a decade fell for a third day, declining by two basis points to 1.86 percent. New Zealand’s two-year bonds fell and its 10-year notes advanced, flattening the so-called yield curve, following the central bank’s policy meeting.
Oil Prices Recover Slightly Amidst Demand Concerns in U.S. and China
Oil Prices Continue Slide as Market Skepticism Grows Over OPEC+ Cuts
Global oil markets witnessed a continued decline on Wednesday as investors assessed the impact of extended OPEC+ cuts against a backdrop of diminishing demand prospects in China.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude oil, declined by 63 cents to $76.57 a barrel while U.S. WTI crude oil lost 58 cents to $71.74 a barrel.
Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed to maintain voluntary output cuts of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day through the first quarter of 2024.
Despite this effort to tighten supply, market sentiment remains unresponsive.
“The decision to further reduce output from January failed to stimulate the market, and the recent, seemingly coordinated, assurances from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the constraints beyond 1Q 2024 or even deepen the cuts if needed have also fallen to deaf ears,” noted PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
Adding to the unease, Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut its official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light to Asia in January for the first time in seven months raises concerns about the struggling demand for oil.
Amid the market turmoil, concerns over China’s economic health cast a shadow, potentially limiting fuel demand in the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
Moody’s recent decision to lower China’s A1 rating outlook from stable to negative further contributes to the apprehension.
Analysts will closely watch China’s preliminary trade data, including crude oil import figures, set to be released on Thursday.
The outcome will provide insights into the trajectory of China’s refinery runs, with expectations leaning towards a decline in November.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic visit to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia has added an extra layer of complexity to the oil market dynamics.
Discussions centered around the cooperation between Russia, the UAE, and OPEC+ in major oil and gas projects, highlighting the intricate geopolitical factors influencing oil prices.
U.S. Crude Production Hits Another Record, Posing Challenges for OPEC
U.S. crude oil production reached a new record in September, surging by 224,000 barrels per day to 13.24 million barrels per day.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a consecutive monthly increase, adding 342,000 barrels per day over the previous three months, marking an annualized growth rate of 11%.
The surge in domestic production has led to a buildup of crude inventories and a softening of prices, challenging OPEC⁺ efforts to stabilize the market.
Despite a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs over the past year, U.S. production continues to rise.
This growth is attributed to enhanced drilling efficiency, with producers focusing on promising sites and drilling longer horizontal well sections to maximize contact with oil-bearing rock.
While OPEC⁺ production cuts have stabilized prices at relatively high levels, U.S. producers are benefiting from this stability.
The current strategy seems to embrace non-OPEC non-shale (NONS) producers, similar to how North Sea producers did in the 1980s.
Saudi Arabia, along with its OPEC⁺ partners, is resuming its role as a swing producer, balancing the market by adjusting its output.
Despite OPEC’s inability to formally collaborate with U.S. shale producers due to antitrust laws, efforts are made to include other NONS producers like Brazil in the coordination system.
This outreach aligns with the historical pattern of embracing rival producers to maintain control over a significant share of global production.
In contrast, U.S. gas production hit a seasonal record high in September, reaching 3,126 billion cubic feet.
However, unlike crude, there are signs that gas production growth is slowing due to very low prices and the absence of a swing producer.
Gas production increased by only 1.8% in September 2023 compared to the same month the previous year.
While the gas market is in the process of rebalancing, excess inventories may persist, keeping prices low.
The impact of a strengthening El Niño in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean could further influence temperatures and reduce nationwide heating demand, impacting gas prices in the coming months.
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