Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

Published

8 years ago

June 20, 2016

Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

Global financial uncertainties continued this week, after data showed inspite of growing US economy the slowdown in job market weigh on growth. The British referendum is also in focus as the Britain go to the poll on Thursday 23 of June to decide their membership in the European Union.

Here is the highlight of last week.

US – The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged citing global growth concerns and UK’s EU referendum uncertainties, a move that drove the dollar lower against its counterparts. Even after predicting the economy will still grow 2 percent this year but 0.1 percent lower than previously forecast 2017 growth rate.

UK – The pound rose about 1 percent on Friday after campaign for the Brexit referendum was suspended on Thursday following the killing of Jo Cox, a Labour Party member and supporter of EU membership.

NZ – New Zealand economy rebounded once again with a better than expected GDP, amid escalating Auckland housing market. Although, economic growth was below 0.9 percent recorded previously, still better than 0.5 percent predicted by economists. The Kiwi climbed as high as 71.46 cents against the US dollar, its highest in over a year.

Japan – The Bank of Japan continues its struggle with the surging yen and has reiterated its readiness to intervene in what Japan Financial Minister Taro Aso described as one sided move that is hurting their economy. The yen gained against the US dollar reaching two year low on Friday.

Australia – Unemployment rate remains the same 5.7 percent in May and labour market added 17,900 part-time jobs, but the Aussie dollar failed to respond likewise after National Australia Bank (NAB) data showed business confidence dropped from 5 to 3 in May, suggesting businesses are worried about sustainability.

Canada – Canadian economy is still yet to find its rhythm after Alberta wildfire disrupted oil production, though the unemployment rate improved from 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent, the inflation rate plunged to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent in May. The loonie lost 65 percent of its last week gain against the US dollar after peaking at 1.3084, below 1.3142 resistance level.

This week, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, US Core Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo Business Climate and of course EU Membership Vote top the list. This week I will be looking at GBPCAD, EURGBP, and GBPCHF.

GBPCAD

Once again referendum outcome will determine GBP price direction this week, but with current situation and emotional sentiment created by the murder of Jo Cox, I am leaning towards “stay” vote even more.

Last week, I said in a group “This week, I am bullish on Yen, Dollar and bearish on Aussie but wary of GBP even with Brexit leading, I am sure they are not going to leave the EU just yet and I expect GBP to hit some real high price level as it becomes obvious”. That was on 7th Monday before Thursday incident.

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Prior to that, we’ve been selling GBPCAD since June 6, when the price was around 1.8745, but last week after failing to sustain a break of 1.8117 support level and forming a double bottom candlestick/bullish engulfing pattern that further validated 1.8117 as a solid support, and also confirm bullish run. This week as long as price remain above 1.8480 I am bullish on GBPCAD with 1.8745 as the first target. A vote in favour of Brexit will invalidate this view.

GBPCHF

This pair has called a bottom at 1.3413 in April when it failed to sustain a breach of 1.3507 support level and eventually breaking the downward trend on the 19th of the same month before hitting a 9-week low (high-lows) on Thursday last week. This week I remain bullish on GBPCHF after breaking 1.3926 previous resistance level for similar reasons I stated above a close above 1.3926 should open up 1.4197.

Click to enlarge

EURGBP

Euro-area economy is still struggling, so is the UK but the single 19-nation currency has been more favoured with Brexit uncertainties when compared with the pound. The Euro-area economic data does not support the current bullish run of this pair and as always, a disparity in market price and economic data is alarming. This week as long as price remain below 0.7846 I am bearish on EURGBP, while targeting 0.7600. Please keep an eye on Brexit.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.