Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

Published

8 years ago

May 15, 2016

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

Last week, the US released mixed economic data. As mixed as the figures are, the US dollar gained momentum and attracted buyers based on FED’s rate expectations and the possibility of BOJ intervening in the yen recent gains. Why I am not convinced that non-farm payrolls 160,000 jobs added in April and 294,000 surged in unemployment benefits are good enough to raise rates, I am compelled to lean towards dollar new found strength this week. So I will be looking at NZDUSD, USDCAD and GBPJPY this week.

NZDUSD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Graeme Wheeler said last week that risks to the financial stability outlook have increased in the past six months, and this he attributed to lower dairy prices due to increase in global dairy supplies. He also mentioned imbalances in the housing market, while the report wasn’t entirely bad. The poor retail sales 0.8 percent released on Friday was, same with core retail sales that dropped from 1.3 percent to 1 percent.

Click to enlarge

Now, looking at the chart, NZDUSD established ascending channel of January 20th was first broken on May 9th, but the pair pullback on 11th, to retest trendline at 0.6847. Forming an evening star after NZ poor retail sales and better than expected US retail sales reports. This gives us a 232-pips sell opportunity from 0.6847 new resistance level.

This week I am bearish on NZDUSD with 0.6609 as the target, while keeping an eye on Global Dairy Trade and Producer Price Index data due on Tuesday in New Zealand.

USDCAD

As always loonie trend is straight forward, directly proportion to increase in oil prices. But with Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Larence Schembri, saying nothing in particular in the last central bank financial stability report, we will have to find that loophole ourselves. Canada GDP plunged 0.1 percent last month from 0.6 percent gained in the previous month, adding this to trade deficit that surged from 2.5B to 3.4 billion in March. It is obvious all is not well with the Canadian economy as exports is weak.

Click to enlarge

Looking at the chart, immediately the trade balance data came out on the 4th of May, USDCAD closed above trendline for the first time since January 20. And has since established a support at 1.2849, with a pinbar closed on Thursday and bullish daily candlestick on Friday, giving us a morning star pattern, a buying opportunity.

This week I remain bullish on this pair with 1.3142 as my target.

GBPJPY

This is another pair I have been following for a while, first because of the uncertainty created by the European Union and British June 23 referendum vote, second, because I am in tune with BOJ policies and I think GBPJPY has been oversold since the yen starts its gain and currently trading at 3-year low.

After breaking out of the downward trend on April 22, the pair has been unable to sustain 161.71 price level, hence, lost around 600 pips. While buying might not be okay now if you are not looking at long-term, so is selling because of uncertainty surrounding BOJ monetary policy and poor economic data released from the UK last week. Another reason is a possible change in Bank of Japan monetary policy has the potential to trigger a massive buy.

Click to enlarge

From the chart, price retest trendline after break-out and has since been trading above 154.39 support level, as long as this support level holds, I remain bullish on GBPJPY and if referendum came out positive or BOJ make monetary policy changes by adding additional stimulus. I will be looking to buy for 161.71 as first target and 169.21 as second, but until then leave comments and lets interact.

What do you think?

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

23 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

24 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.