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Pound Traders Brace for Months of Swings as EU Vote Called

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Barclays UK

Pound traders are expecting little respite from the currency’s volatility after U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron called a referendum on the nation’s European Union membership for June 23.

The pound jumped the most in more than two weeks against the dollar after Cameron finalized a deal with EU leaders on Britain’s relationship with the rest of the 28-nation bloc in the closing hours of trading in New York on Friday. Still, a measure of traders’ expectations for price swings in the pound against the euro during the next six months remained at the highest since 2011. The deal Cameron secured means he is recommending the U.K. should stay in the EU, he said on Saturday.

Although the announcement of the date removes one aspect of ambiguity for traders, they now face months of polls and campaigning that could boost volatility further. With traders already pushing back bets on the timing of a Bank of England interest-rate increase, the prospect of Britain leaving the world’s largest single market had been causing further concern, helping push down the pound against most of its Group-of-10 peers this year.

“The pound’s weakness is a product of uncertainty of the U.K.’s ongoing membership of the union, not the timing of the poll,” said David Page, a senior economist at AXA Investment Managers in London. “Weakness is likely to reflect any increased perception of the likelihood to leave and as such is likely to be a constant feature over the coming months.”

The pound climbed 0.5 percent to $1.4406 as of 5 p.m. New York time on Friday. While the currency is down 2.2 percent this year, it has rebounded from an almost seven-year low of $1.4080 reached in January.

“The pound is likely to bounce near term” as investors see the deal “as increasing the prospects of Britain voting to stay in,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior markets strategist in Singapore at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Still, “as we get closer towards June 23, investors are likely to become increasingly nervous,” he said.

Higher Volatility

Sterling added 0.2 percent to 77.29 pence per euro on Friday, paring its drop this year to 4.6 percent. Six-month implied volatility for the pound versus the euro, a measure of price swings based on options, was at 12.10 percent, the highest level since September 2011, based on closing prices.

The uncertainty over the vote hasn’t had the same impact on equities. While U.K. stock swings have increased this year, FTSE 100 Index implied volatility remains lower than for the euro area. And the weakening of the pound has actually helped the gaugeperform better than any other major market in the region. Even small- and mid-cap companies, deemed more at risk in a “Brexit” scenario, have fallen less than their European peers. Pictet Asset Management says U.K. stocks are not reflecting the true danger of an exit.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said earlier this month that if Britain quits the EU sterling could fall to $1.15-$1.20 — levels last since in 1985. HSBC Holdings Plc said in January that a forecast for a jump to $1.60 by year-end relied on the nation remaining in the 28-member club.

“The uncertainty will persist” into the vote, said Kit Juckes, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “Sterling was the weakest major last week and probably remains under pressure.”

Ministers’ Stance

Traders’ attention may now turn to the stance of ministers who, while given a free hand by Cameron to campaign against the government’s position, were asked not to announce their intentions until after the cabinet meeting.

Cameron was given a fillip on Saturday when Business Secretary Sajid Javid and Home Secretary Theresa May, both seen as wavering over which way to vote, threw their support behind the campaign to remain. Six ministers, including Justice Secretary Michael Gove, were later pictured at the headquarters of one of several groups campaigning to leave the EU.

The support of London Mayor Boris Johnson for either side may prove key to sterling, given his popularity with the British public, according Morgan Stanley. Should he choose to publicly back the exit campaign, “the pound should come under immediate pressure,” analysts led by Hans Redeker wrote in an e-mailed report Friday.

/Bloomberg

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, July 23, 2021

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Naira Notes - Investors King

The Naira improves slightly against its global counterparts at the parallel market on Friday as liquidity increase marginally across key forex markets. The Naira gained N2 against the United States Dollar from N506 it traded last week Friday to N504 today, Friday, July 23, 2021 at the parallel market. Against the Euro and British Pound, the local currency exchanged at N595 and N705, respectively.

Economic uncertainty amid unclear policy direction has put a lid on Naira against global currencies, especially with Nigeria’s fiscal buffer lacking despite crude oil trading at an almost 2-year high from COVID-19 record-low. The drop in foreign reserves impeded the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ability to consistently intervene at the forex to prop the Naira value as usual.

At the bureau de change section, the Naira exchanged at N500, N705 and N595 to the United States Dollar, British Pound and the Euro, respectively. See the table below for Naira rates.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
23/07/2021 500/504 698/705 588/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
23/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
7/22/2021 US DOLLAR 409.14 409.64 410.14
7/22/2021 POUNDS STERLING 563.1812 563.8695 564.5577
7/22/2021 EURO 481.8851 482.474 483.0629
7/22/2021 SWISS FRANC 444.7657 445.3093 445.8528
7/22/2021 YEN 3.7114 3.7159 3.7204
7/22/2021 CFA 0.7151 0.7251 0.7351
7/22/2021 WAUA 580.1991 580.9082 581.6172
7/22/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 63.2522 63.3299 63.4077
7/22/2021 RIYAL 109.0778 109.2111 109.3444
7/22/2021 DANISH KRONA 64.7732 64.8524 64.9315

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Thursday, July 22, 2021

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NAIRA - Investors King

Naira gained slightly across key foreign exchange markets during the holiday and opened at N503 against the United States Dollar at the Parallel market. Against the British Pound, it exchanged at N703 and N590 to Euro.

Despite series of policies deployed at arresting the falling Naira and curb economic stagnation, the crude oil-backed Naira continued to struggle against its global counterparts.

At the Bureau de Change section, the Naira traded at N500 to a United States Dollar, N705 to a British Pound and N595 to a Euro. See other Naira exchange rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Monday, July 19, 2021

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500 and 1000 naira bills (Nigerian currency)

Naira declined further against the United States Dollar at the parallel market, popularly known as the black market ahead of the Sallah Holiday. The Naira dipped by N1 from N505 it traded against the United States Dollar on Thursday to N506 on Friday but moderated to N505 on Monday, July 19, 2021.

Against the British Pound and Euro common currency, the Nigerian Naira exchanged at N708 and N592, respectively.

Lack of liquidity across the foreign exchange markets continued to weigh on the Naira value and economic activities at large given the nature of the Nigerian economy, an import-dependent economy.

The Nigerian Naira traded at N500 against the United States Dollar at the bureau de change section of the forex market. While, it sold at N710 and N595 to a British Pound and Euro, respectively. See other exchange rates below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
19/07/2021 497/505 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
19/07/2021 495/500 695/710 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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