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Naira Crashes to 300 Against Dollar

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Naira - Investors King

Monday’s stoppage of foreign exchange sales to Bureau De Change operators by the Central Bank of Nigeria failed to lift the naira on Tuesday as the currency exchanged for 300 against the United States dollar in Kano, 290 in Lagos and 292 in Abuja.

Financial experts said the naira would decline further, while private sector operators described the move as a welcome development.

The ban was announced on Monday, when naira trading at 285 against the dollar at the parallel market from 278 on Friday.

The Acting President, Association of Bureau De Change Operators, Alhaji Aminu Gwadabe, told one of correspondents in a telephone interview that the currency traded against the greenback at 300, 290 and 292 in Kano, Lagos and Abuja a day after the CBN announcement.

“There is cut of (dollar) supply to the market. The BDC sub-sector has been murdered. We are not coping. The naira is going to head northwards. There is no solution in sight,” Gwadabe lamented.

The Head of Investment Research, Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Mr. Ayodeji Ebo, said the stoppage of forex sale to the BDCs meant that the CBN wanted everybody to apply to the banks for dollars.

He stated, “But we feel the pressure now will move from the BDCs to the parallel market. We will see significant spike in the value of the naira at the parallel market because the little supply to the BDCs have also helped to cushion the demand at the parallel market.

“It will further compound or increase the spread between the parallel market and the interbank market. So, it will also increase round-tripping and unethical practices within the financial system.”

On the lifting of the ban on cash deposits into domiciliary accounts, Ebo said, “I am still sceptical about how this will work except they are also assuring us that if you deposit it, you can consummate business with it.”

A professor of financial economics at the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Leo Ukpong, said, “I don’t think the stoppage of dollar sale to the BDCs will solve the problem. The currency will depreciate some more.

“This move will make the naira to weaken more as demand for dollar will skyrocket because of the short supply.”

Members of the organised private sector, however, applauded the CBN for the stopping the sale of dollars to the BDCs and lifting the ban on cash deposits into domiciliary accounts.

The President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Dr. Frank Jacobs, said industrialists had earlier kicked against the funding of the BDCs by the central bank, adding that with the development, the forex could be channelled towards funding the real sector in terms of importation of raw materials.

On the removal of the restriction of cash deposits into domiciliary accounts, Jacobs said manufacturers were still waiting for more clarification as to how the money deposited could be utilised by the customers.

The Director-General, the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture, Mr. Emmanuel Cobham, said the forex sale ban was a welcome development.

According to him, although the BDCs are necessary in the economy, they are licensed entities and should, therefore, source for their own funds.

Also speaking on the matter, the Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr. Muda Yusuf, lauded the forex policy review, noting that it had addressed the concerns of economic operators.

According to him, it is a source of worry that the CBN continues to maintain its official exchange rate at N199 to the dollar at a time of dwindling forex inflow.

“The pressure on the official window will persist. The risk of round-tripping and distortions in the foreign exchange market will consequently remain high,” he said.

Punch

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Energy

Power Generation Surges to 5,313 MW, But Distribution Issues Persist

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Nigeria’s power generation continues to get better under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

According to the latest statement released by Bolaji Tunji, the media aide to the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, power generation surged to a three-year high of 5,313 megawatts (MW).

“The national grid on Monday hit a record high of 5,313MW, a record high in the last three years,” the statement disclosed.

Reacting to this, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, called on power distribution companies to take more energy to prevent grid collapse as the grid’s frequency drops when power is produced and not picked by the Discos.

He added that efforts would be made to encourage industries to purchase bulk energy.

However, a top official of one of the Discos was quoted as saying that the power companies were finding it difficult to pick the extra energy produced by generation companies because they were not happy with the tariff on other bands apart from Band A.

“As it is now, we are operating at a loss. Yes, they supply more power but this problem could be solved with improved tariff for the other bands and more meter penetration to recover the cost,” the Disco official, who pleaded not to be named due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, said.

On Saturday, the ministry said power generation that peaked at 5,170MW was ramped down by 1,400MW due to Discos’ energy rejection.

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