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Emerging-Market Currencies Surge on China Stimulus Hopes

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Indonesia’s rupiah led emerging-market currencies higher before a report on the U.S. economy and as China signaled it will take more steps to support growth. Developing-nation stocks traded little changed.

The rupiah headed for the longest rally since October after the government announced its eighth policy package. The offshore yuan rose the most in a week. Malaysia’s Axiata Group Bhd. paced gains for emerging-nation telecom companies after buying a stake in a Nepalese phone carrier. True Corp., a Thai phone stock, rebounded from the steepest slump in 11 months. Taiwan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to a record-low.

China’s government said monetary policy must be more “flexible” and fiscal policy more “forceful” to stem slowing growth in an economy that many emerging countries count as their biggest trading partner. Developing-nation currencies climbed for a third day, extending last week’s gains as bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates gradually bolstered demand for riskier assets. A report Tuesday is forecast to show the U.S. economy grew less than previously estimated in the third quarter.

“Chinese stimulus is positive for the economy and many investors are gauging the general impact of any new measures as well as the longer-term impact of the Fed rate increase,” Attila Vajda, managing director of Project Asia Research & Consulting Pte., a Singapore-based advisory firm, said from Ho Chi Minh City. “The holiday season is impacting liquidity.”

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed at 791.54 at 12:27 p.m. in Hong Kong, trading below its 50-day moving average for almost a month. The stock benchmark has fallen 17 percent this year, set for the worst annual performance since 2011. The average valuation of companies on the gauge is 11.1 times estimated 12-month earnings, a 29 percent discount to the MSCI World Index, which has slid 4.1 percent in 2015.

A gauge tracking 20 emerging-market currencies rose 0.1 percent. The rupiah strengthened 1.1 percent, its fourth day of gains. Under a policy package announced on Monday, private-sector companies will be allowed to build oil refineries as long as they sell the end product to state-owned PT Pertamina. The nation will also scrap import taxes on aviation spare parts to support that industry.

The offshore yuan added 0.23 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. South Korea’s won rose 0.2 percent in a two-day increase. “China’s stimulus is highly likely to support the won, just as the yuan halted its drop,” said Jeon Seung Ji, a currency analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul. “The dollar’s strength is losing steam when Korean exporters keep selling the dollars.”

Bonds

The yield on Taiwan’s 2025 bonds dropped three basis points to 1.015 percent, after earlier declining to 1.011 percent, an intraday record low for benchmark 10-year notes, Taipei Exchange prices show. The five-year yield fell two basis points to an unprecedented 0.60 percent. Disappointing economic data fueled speculation the central bank will ease monetary policy again after delivering two interest-rate cuts this year. Bonds surged last week after the central bank lowered its benchmark rate for the second straight quarter.

Five out of 10 industry groups in MSCI’s emerging-markets measure rose, led by telecommunication and health-care shares, while technology companies declined. Axiata climbed 2.8 percent in Kuala Lumpur after agreeing to buy a 80 percent stake in Ncell for $1.4 billion. True Corp. advanced 2.3 percent, halting a four-day slump.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell from a three-week high, dragged down by losses for the best-performing industry groups this year, as investors weighed growth measures from the nation’s top economic conference. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies traded in Hong Kong fell 0.4 percent. Equity gauges in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines gained at least 0.2 percent.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Plunges to N621 at Black Market

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday.

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Naira - Investors King

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure at the unregulated parallel market popularly known as the black market on Tuesday. The Naira exchanged at N621 to a United States Dollar amid persistent foreign exchange scarcity.

At the Investors and Exporters’ forex window, the local currency dropped to N425.75 against the United States Dollar after opening the day at N422.25/US$1 on Monday. Forex traders in that segment of the forex market transacted $47.56 million in value and volume, Investors King reports.

However, Naira improved slightly against the U.S Dollar at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forex section. Naira exchange rate to dollar improved marginally from N415.86/US$ to N415.8.

Against the Pounds Sterling, the Nigerian Naira declined in value to N505.6544 from N500.6539. Similarly, against the European common currency, the local currency dipped slightly in value from N434.0331 to N434.7605.

Crude Oil

Oil prices dropped by $6 on Tuesday as concerns over the global recession containing demand outweighed supply concerns.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, declined by $6.65 to $106.85 a barrel while the U.S. West Texas Crude Oil lost $5.65 to $102.78 a barrel.

“Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management wrote.

Crude oil remains an important commodity for the Nigerian economy given its nature as a mono-product economy. Africa’s largest economy relies on crude oil revenue to service its economy and sustain its currency value against its global counterparts.

However, the inability to prop up crude oil production despite the increase in oil prices continued to hurt Nigeria’s foreign reserves and the availability of dollars in the economy. Hence, the Nigerian Naira is presently trading at a record low of N621 to a United States Dollar.

Cryptocurrency Exchange Rates

Global economic uncertainty ahead of the projected recession continues to dictate the performance of the cryptocurrency space in recent weeks.

Bitcoin extended its decline by 2.37% in the last 24 hours to $19,387.33 per coin. ETH, a token of the Ethereum protocol, lost 3.09% of its value to $1,079 a coin.

Meanwhile, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, has suspended its cryptocurrency project called Libra.  Celsius, a cryptocurrency lender, has paused withdrawals and announced plans to cut 150 jobs.

Cryptocurrency space market value dropped from over $2.5 trillion at its peak to about $900 million presently. The huge decline forced several players to cut losses and halt capital inflow into the cryptocurrency space.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Today Wednesday, 29 June 2022

The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30.

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The dollar to naira exchange rate today Wednesday, 29 June 2022 remained largely unchanged at the Investors and Exporters forex window and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s section of foreign exchange.

The dollar to naira exchange opened the day at N420.70 to a U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and closed at N421, representing a decline in value of N0.30. Forex traders transacted 206.65 million dollars at the official Investors and Exporters window on Tuesday.

In the CBN forex section, U.S. Dollar was sold at N415.6 by the apex bank to authorised dealers, slightly better than N415.64 it exchanged on Monday.

Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira appreciated from N509.824 to N508.53. However, against the Euro common currency, the value of the Naira dropped from N433.05 on Monday to N439.5 on Tuesday.

Dollar to Naira Black Market Exchange Rate

Forex scarcity continued to drag on the Naira value in the unregulated foreign exchange market popularly known as the black market.

On Wednesday, the Naira was exchanged at N614 for a United States Dollar on the black market. Representing another decline of N7 from N607 it was sold two weeks ago.

According to traders in that section of forex, rising demand amid a chronic scarcity is responsible for the wide foreign exchange rate of the local currency and could worsen if developed economies plunge into recession as widely projected.

Inflow into emerging economies like Nigeria will drop, hence impeding the apex bank’s ability to service the economy.

Crude Oil

Crude oil extended its gains for four consecutive days on Wednesday after it became obvious that OPEC and its allies will not be able to meet their targets as projected.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian oil, appreciated to $120 a barrel on Wednesday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose from $99.33 per barrel a week ago to $112.37 per barrel.

According to Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA, said “A surprise drop by US API Crude Inventories by 3.8 million barrels helped the bullish momentum, with markets ignoring the rise in refined product stocks. Disruptions to Libyan and Ecuadorian production were supportive, but the Macron’s remarks yesterday around Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s limited production capacity seems to have been the main driver.”

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate, June 21, 2022

The Naira was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.

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The Nigerian Naira remained largely flat against its global counterparts at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) section of foreign exchange on Tuesday.

The local currency was sold at N415.65 against the United States Dollar, marginally higher than N415.75 it was sold on Monday. Against the Pounds Sterling, the Naira was largely unchanged at N509.9194, similar to N509.6679 it traded on Monday.

The Euro common currency was the exception as the Naira declined by N1.308 from N437.4937 on Monday to N438.8017 Tuesday.

CBN Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Buying and Selling Rates

It is important to note that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rates are the rates the apex bank sells and buys from Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).

How Much is a Dollar to Naira in Black Market Today?

However, in the unregulated black market. The Naira remained weak against the United States Dollar and other global currencies. In Lagos and Abuja, the Nigerian Naira was exchanged at N610 to a United States Dollar, while at Ibadan it was sold at N605.

Operators are buying at N580 per US$1.

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 580
Selling Rate 610

Crude Oil

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, traded at $109 per barrel on Tuesday as the expected surge in summer demand outweighs supply concerns.  However, a global recession could force prices at some point this year.

Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA, in a note to Investors King said “Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing.”

Cryptocurrency

The unregulated cryptocurrency space remained largely in the red. However, Bitcoin, the world’s most dominant digital asset, pared losses to $21,258.31, representing an increase of 4.66%.

ETH, the token of the Ethereum protocol, appreciated by 3.80% to $1,158.30 a coin. Similarly, BNB inched higher by 3.52% to $224.16 a coin.

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