Currency options show euro-dollar focus is looking past the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings in January and giving a lot more attention on the March policy meetings, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes. Until then, the euro is likely to trade within a familiar territory versus the greenback, especially as year-end flows may cloud the short-term direction after the Fed liftoff.
Option volatility term structure shows the 3-month tenor is the most demanded across the curve. This is no coincidence as three-month options expire on March 17, the day the Federal Open Market Committee begins its policy meeting while ECB meets on March 5.
Options also suggest that January meetings aren’t particularly ground-breaking for market participants. Fed Funds futures currently show no probability assigned to a January hike, a 40.5 percent chance for a March hike and a 66.7 percent probability for a June rate increase. As inflation is now the main driver of Fed’s dot plot, traders may surmise the Fed would want more than one Consumer Price Index reading before assessing its next move. The next U.S. CPI data is due on January 20.
ECB’s March meeting is pivotal in determining further stimulus chances, as new inflation and growth projections will be available by then to the Governing Council, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Fresh catalysts for the common currency to break out of its recent $1.05/$1.11 range may not be seen for some time after Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen delivered a two-pronged message with the lift-off — the U.S. economy is performing well and the Fed is in no rush to raise rates again.
Year-end flows may also cloud the short-term picture. Two traders in London, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly, say that corporate year-end orders are significantly greater than those in previous years. Moreover, some investors may feel more comfortable in reacting to Fed’s hike with some delay as not every market participant has a mandate to immediately act upon news releases, one of the London traders adds.
Risk reversals, a gauge of market positioning and sentiment, show euro-dollar bias is slightly skewed to the downside as bullish greenback sentiment is increasing in the short-term while holding steady on the longer tenors.
Note: Vassilis Karamanis is a FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Dollar to Naira Today January 24, 2022
Here is the daily dollar to Naira exchange rates at both the official and black markets today, January 24, 2022.
How Much is Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today, January 24, 2022, at the Official Market?
The official exchange rate for $1 dollar to naira = ₦415.64/$1, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria official exchange rates.
However, FMDQ Group forex data puts the dollar to naira exchange rate at ₦416 to $1 on Friday, 21st January 2022. The Investors and Exporters forex platform is yet to be updated today.
How Much is Black Market Exchange Rate for Dollar to Naira Today?
The dollar to naira exchange rate at the unregulated forex market popularly known as the black market is N560 for buyers and sells at N565 today, Monday, January 24, 2022, according to sources cited by Bureau De Change (BDC).
The Central Bank of Nigeria has warned against patronising the black market and directed all Nigerians to visit their banks for their forex needs.
How Much is Bitcoin to Naira Today?
Bitcoin to Naira exchange rate dipped by 0.25 percent in the last 24 hours to N14.630 million while Ethereum [ETH] to Naira stood at N979,245, representing a decline of 3.40 percent.
The entire cryptocurrency plunged in December 2021 after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to adjust its monetary policy to accommodate the change in the nation’s economic realities. Experts are predicting that an increase in interest rate will impact the crypto space as capital inflow is projected to drop.
Meanwhile, the minister of finance Mrs Zainab Ahmed on Monday said the federal government has suspended plans to remove fuel subsidy in 2022 given the nation’s inflation rate.
Speaking at National Assembly, she said “We discovered that practically, there is still heightened inflation and that the removal of subsidy would further worsen the situation and impose more difficulties on the citizenry,” Ahmed said at the meeting.
“Mr. President does not want to do that. What we are now doing is to continue with the ongoing discussions and consultations in terms of putting in place a number of measures.
“One of these include the roll-out of the refining capacities of the existing refineries and the new ones which would reduce the amount of products that would be imported into the country.”
Naira Slides Marginally Against US Dollar, Exchanges at N415
The Nigerian Naira fell slightly against the United States Dollar on Monday, according to the last update from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The local currency was exchanged at N414.89 per dollar on Friday before depreciating by N0.11 or 0.03 percent to N415 on Monday.
It should be recalled that the Naira plunged to N435 against the United States on Friday 31, December 2021 when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adjusted its exchange rate by N2 to accommodate the change in Nigeria’s economic realities.
The Naira has now improved by about 4.6 percent against the United States Dollar from the year to date. The improvement was after the market digested and interpreted the CBN action as the usual forex devaluation in line with the apex bank policy.
At the unregulated black market, traders in Abuja sold the greenback at N570 a unit and buy it at N569. CBN had attributed Nigeria’s forex challenges to the activities of black market operators and warned Nigerians to stop patronising that section of forex.
Meanwhile, the crypto space remained bearish across the board ahead of US Federal Reserve rate decisions. Bitcoin to Naira exchange rate declined by 2.5 percent to N17.346 million in the last 24 hours while Eth shed 3.6 percent.
Other cryptocurrencies suffer the same fate as Binance coin, Tether, Cardano and XRP depreciated by 3.70 percent, 0.31 percent, 1.72 percent and 2.93 percent.
Bitcoin looks vulnerable above the $41,000 support level, largely due to the drop in capital inflow into the crypto space ahead of a possible interest rate increase in the world’s largest economy, the United States.
“Bitcoin continues to look vulnerable having failed to bounce back strongly off the recent lows. It appeared to be gathering some upside momentum at times last week but it quickly ran into resistance just shy of $45,000 where it had previously seen support. All eyes are now on $40,000 and whether we’re going to see another run at that major support level,” said Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA, in an email to Investors King.
Naira Gains 1.58 Percent to N416 at Official FX Market, Bitcoin, Other Cryptocurrencies Plunge
The Nigerian Naira gained 1.58 percent or N7.56 against the United States Dollar at the official forex market on Wednesday.
The local currency opened the day at N423.56 to a US Dollar before improving in value to N416 against the greenback. At the official forex window managed by the FMDQ Group, investors traded $114.95 million on Wednesday.
The improvement in Naira value was after the market had digested the Central Bank of Nigeria’s currency adjustment. The central bank had adjusted the Naira to Dollar exchange rate by N2 from N411 to N413 on Friday, leading to devaluation outcry across Africa’s largest economy.
On Friday, the Naira plunged to as low as N435 against the United States Dollar at the official forex trading market and N575 at the unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market, before moderating to N416.
Meanwhile, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plunged across the board. Bitcoin depreciated by 7.16 percent to $43,058 per coin in the last 24 hours. The decline does not stop there as the second most capitalised digital asset, Eth dipped by 9.77 percent to $3,441.
Solana, Ripple (XRP), Luna and Cardano (ADA) lost 11.48 percent, 8.13 percent, 9.5 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively.
The decline was after the US Federal Reserve minutes of December 14 – 15 meeting released on Wednesday revealed that policymakers are planning to raise interest rates as early as March 2022 to curb escalating inflation rate. Generally, hawkish monetary policy is negative for cryptocurrency as it drags on capital inflow into the space and encourages investors to look into more stable assets for higher interest rates.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the “Federal Reserve officials at their meeting last month eyed a faster timetable for raising interest rates this year, potentially as soon as in March, amid greater discomfort with high inflation.
“Minutes of their Dec. 14-15 meeting, released Wednesday, showed officials believed that rising inflation and a very tight labor market could call for lifting short-term rates “sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated.”
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