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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Raised its Forecasts For The Euro

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecasts for the euro after its call that the European Central Bank would send the shared currency tumbling as much as 3 percent with dovish easing policies crumbled last week.

The euro instead climbed more than 3 percent in the wake of the ECB’s Dec. 3 meeting, after President Mario Draghi’s package of measures underwhelmed some investors. The decision marked a shift in the central bank’s behavior for Goldman’s chief currency strategist Robin Brooks, who says he is losing faith that officials are “wholeheartedly” pursing reflationary policies.

Brooks forecasts the euro will weaken to $1.07, $1.05 and $1.00 in three, six and 12 months respectively. This compares to previous forecasts of $1.02, $1 and 95 cents. At end of 2017 the euro will be at 90 cents versus a previous forecast of 80 cents, he said.

“Although we are reluctant to do this, given our view of euro-zone fundamentals (a large output gap and low underlying inflation), we have to acknowledge the apparent disagreement on the Governing Council over the need for additional easing,” Brooks wrote in a note to clients. “There is no doubt in our minds that euro down will again become a theme over time, but regrettably that time is not now.”

The euro weakened 0.7 percent to $1.0810 as of 10:40 a.m. London time, extending a decline from Friday. On the day of the ECB meeting it jumped 3.1 percent, the biggest advance since 2009.

Goldman also raised forecasts for the euro against the pound and Swiss franc, to reflect new expectations that declines will be smaller. In six months the euro will be at 70 pence, compared with a previous forecast of 67 pence.

The ECB’s easing measures, which included a cut to the deposit rate and a six-month extension to the bond-buying program, didn’t meet expectations for aggressive stimulus, which were stoked by Draghi on Nov. 20 when he said policy makers “will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible.” This sense of urgency was missing, Brooks said.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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President Tinubu Orders Release of Minors Prosecuted for #BadGovernance Protests

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Following a recent viral video on the X app regarding the prosecution of minors who protested during the #BadGovernance movement, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has ordered the immediate release of all prosecuted minors.

This was announced by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, in a statement to the State House Correspondents in Abuja.

In a show of concern over the detention of minors, President Tinubu directed the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction to investigate and ensure that the law is fully applied to law enforcement agents involved in the unlawful act.

It was noted that the arrests violated human rights and the Child Rights Act, as the 32 detainees are under 18 years old.

Activist organizations, including the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED), and Concerned Parents and Educators (CPE), condemned the actions and denounced the treason charges filed against the detained minors.

In a call to action, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) urged the president to instruct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, to immediately and unconditionally release all protesters arrested during the #EndBadGovernance movement.

SERAP stated, “The immediate and unconditional release of all #EndBadGovernance protesters, including 32 hungry and malnourished children, is necessary.”

According to SERAP, for the peaceful exercise of fundamental human rights, including freedom of expression, assembly, and association without fear of persecution or undue restriction, all detained protesters should be released.

In response to the president’s directive, the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Lateef Fagbemi, commented that his office “will need to review the matter to enable me to make an informed decision.”

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FBN Holdings To Invest N103.1bn In Corporate, Retail Businesses

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FBN Holdings

As part of means of actualizing its expectation of raising N150 billion from its existing shareholders by way of rights issue, the management of FBN Holdings said it has budgeted an estimated N103.1 billion for its corporate business and retail business lending segments of the market.

The Holdings recently held the signing ceremony to begin the rights issue offering of 5,982,548,799 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N25.00 per share to its existing shareholder on the basis of one new ordinary share for every six ordinary shares held as of October 18, 2024.

Extracts from the offer raising prospectus of the financial institution revealed that lending to the corporate business segment gets N77.34 billion, while lending to the retail business segment gets a budget of N25.78 billion.

This covers 68.95 per cent of the N150 billion proposed rights issue the management seeks to raise from existing shareholders.

Out of the N150 billion, a total of N29.46 billion was budgeted to support international business expansion and N14.73 billion for investment in automation and digital banking.

According to the financial institution, seamless and convenient banking experience for its customers would be guaranteed through its significant investment in automation and digital banking.

Through its mobile banking app, FirstMobile, and its internet banking platform, FirstOnline, the management of FBN Holdings said it has effectively acquired a broad cross-section of the target demography, with a clear proposition of owning bank accounts and utilising various financial services from the comfort of their locations.

It added that the bank plans to upgrade the FirstMobile and FirstOnline apps with additional features while driving customer adoption of the platforms, noting that the development is in line with First Bank’s commitment to providing customers with the best-in-class electronic banking experience.

The offer, however, is part of the company’s plan to recapitalise its commercial banking subsidiary, First Bank of Nigeria Limited,  with a view to increasing the bank’s capacity for business development and growth.

Chairman, FBN Holdings, Olufemi Otedola in a statement from the document urged shareholders to support the Rights issue by accepting their rights, stating that the company will be well positioned to achieve its strategic objectives and to deliver improved returns to all stakeholders.

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Currency Outside Banks Increases By 66.2% As Nigerians Shun Formal Banking Channels

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New Naira notes

A recent data has revealed that currency outside banks increased by 66.2 percent in September 2024.

To this end, money outside traditional banking channels rose to N4.02 trillion compared to N2.42 trillion reported in September 2023.

This represents an increase of N1.60 trillion in just one year.

This was revealed in the Money and Credit Statistics data of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to the data, on a month-on-month basis, currency outside banks grew by 3.8 percent in September 2024 from August’s figure of N3.87 trillion, translating to an increase of N147.9 billion.

The trend suggests a growing inclination among the public to retain cash outside formal banking channels, a shift that could impact banks’ liquidity and shape monetary policy dynamics.

The CBN data further shows that a considerable proportion of Nigeria’s currency is held outside the banking system.

In September 2024, approximately 93.1 percent of currency in circulation was outside banks, a rise from 87.5 percent recorded in September 2023.

This shift may reflect limited trust in banking services, inflationary pressures, or a structural dependence on cash in Nigeria’s largely informal economy.

Such a high percentage of currency outside banks poses potential challenges for channelling funds into productive investments, potentially hindering economic growth.

The CBN report also highlights a parallel rise in overall currency in circulation, which encompasses both bank-held and outside cash.

In September 2024, currency in circulation rose beyond 56.1 percent year-on-year to reach N4.31trn, up from N2.76trn in September 2023, reflecting an increase of N1.55trn.

This indicates that the volume of currency retained outside the banking sector outpaced the total released for circulation within the past year.

Compared to August 2024, currency in circulation rose by 4.0 percent month-on-month, adding N166.2bn from the previous figure of N4.14trn.

Earlier in September, the CBN announced plans to sanction banks that fail to dispense cash through their automated teller machines, as part of efforts to improve cash availability in circulation.

The CBN also revealed plans to release an additional N1.4 trillion into circulation over the next three months to ease cash flow within the banking system.

This strategy aims to ensure that ATMs and bank branches have sufficient cash, addressing ongoing challenges faced by customers over cash shortages.

In related developments, it was observed that Nigeria’s money supply grew significantly by 62.8 percent year-on-year in September 2024, despite the Monetary Policy Committee’s tightening stance intended to manage excess liquidity to control inflation.

According to CBN data, M3 reached N108.95 trillion in September 2024, up from N66.94 trillion in the same period last year.

On a month-on-month basis, money supply rose by 1.6 percent, increasing from N107.19trn in August 2024.

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