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U.S unemployment Rate Falls to 5.1 Percent in 7 Years

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The U.S unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 percent for the first time in 7 years. The last time similar data was recorded was in April 2008 when the unemployment rate was 5 percent prior to the global economic crisis that pushed unemployment as high as 10 percent in the 4Q of 2009. At this point, it can be said that the US has attained full employment based on the Federal Reserve definition of full employment in the economy.

The positive report was as a result of employers being upbeat about America’s demand prospects as indicated by the decrease of $3.3 billion in trade balance deficit released on Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The better than expected report shows a reasonable surge in exports and increase in manufacturing for the month of August. Although, ADP Non-Farm Employment change increased by 13,000 from 177,000 recorded in July to 190,000 in August yet it fell short of economists’ expectation of 204,000.

A senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. was quoted saying “All in all this a very good report, based on the data it doesn’t seem that global financial and international markets are significantly affecting the U.S economy”

Key Economic Data of the Week
ISM Manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 in July to 51.1 in August
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 59.0 from previous 60.3, better than expected 58.3
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change increased from 177,000 to 190,000 in August, worse than expected (240,000)
Trade Balance, deficit sank from 45.2 B to 41.9B, better than expected 43.2B
Unemployment Claims jumped from 270,000 to 282,000 in August, falling below the expected 273,000

Non-Farm Payrolls

The change in the total number of employed workers during August (excluding those in the farming industry) increased by 173,000, the lowest since August 2014. According to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing and mining lost jobs but job gains occurred in health care and social assistance and also in financial activities.

The non-manufacturing sector has been the driving force of the economy for months and contributed the most to the 5.1 percent reduction in the unemployment rate.

The report clearly shows that the manufacturing sector is still struggling and yet to fully pick up, the data released by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicates economic expansion but when compared to what was obtained in July (52.1) and the expected result of 52.6, it is low and almost at 50.0 expansion’s bottom level of the ISM indicator.

The positive data from the unemployment rate has been overshadowed by the poor data from manufacturing leading to poor non-farm payrolls data. The better than expected trade balance was as a result of the increase in business activities of the service sector, which is further validated by the surge in unemployment claims to 182,000 according to the data released by the Department of Labor. If the jobs created were substantial why the increase in unemployment claims?

Overall the data is mixed, a stronger dollar is still hindering exports and a continuous fall in global prices is slowing down activities in the mining industry, for now, it seems the service industry is the powerhouse of the economy but for how long?  However, the probability of the Fed increasing the interest rate might just as well have been increased, it’s needed to curb inflation and soften dollar strength.

Our view on USDJPY still stands.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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