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U.S unemployment Rate Falls to 5.1 Percent in 7 Years

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Hiring

The U.S unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 percent for the first time in 7 years. The last time similar data was recorded was in April 2008 when the unemployment rate was 5 percent prior to the global economic crisis that pushed unemployment as high as 10 percent in the 4Q of 2009. At this point, it can be said that the US has attained full employment based on the Federal Reserve definition of full employment in the economy.

The positive report was as a result of employers being upbeat about America’s demand prospects as indicated by the decrease of $3.3 billion in trade balance deficit released on Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The better than expected report shows a reasonable surge in exports and increase in manufacturing for the month of August. Although, ADP Non-Farm Employment change increased by 13,000 from 177,000 recorded in July to 190,000 in August yet it fell short of economists’ expectation of 204,000.

A senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. was quoted saying “All in all this a very good report, based on the data it doesn’t seem that global financial and international markets are significantly affecting the U.S economy”

Key Economic Data of the Week
ISM Manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 in July to 51.1 in August
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 59.0 from previous 60.3, better than expected 58.3
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change increased from 177,000 to 190,000 in August, worse than expected (240,000)
Trade Balance, deficit sank from 45.2 B to 41.9B, better than expected 43.2B
Unemployment Claims jumped from 270,000 to 282,000 in August, falling below the expected 273,000

Non-Farm Payrolls

The change in the total number of employed workers during August (excluding those in the farming industry) increased by 173,000, the lowest since August 2014. According to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing and mining lost jobs but job gains occurred in health care and social assistance and also in financial activities.

The non-manufacturing sector has been the driving force of the economy for months and contributed the most to the 5.1 percent reduction in the unemployment rate.

The report clearly shows that the manufacturing sector is still struggling and yet to fully pick up, the data released by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicates economic expansion but when compared to what was obtained in July (52.1) and the expected result of 52.6, it is low and almost at 50.0 expansion’s bottom level of the ISM indicator.

The positive data from the unemployment rate has been overshadowed by the poor data from manufacturing leading to poor non-farm payrolls data. The better than expected trade balance was as a result of the increase in business activities of the service sector, which is further validated by the surge in unemployment claims to 182,000 according to the data released by the Department of Labor. If the jobs created were substantial why the increase in unemployment claims?

Overall the data is mixed, a stronger dollar is still hindering exports and a continuous fall in global prices is slowing down activities in the mining industry, for now, it seems the service industry is the powerhouse of the economy but for how long?  However, the probability of the Fed increasing the interest rate might just as well have been increased, it’s needed to curb inflation and soften dollar strength.

Our view on USDJPY still stands.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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