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Naira Devaluation Spurs Hope for Non-Oil Exports, but Challenges Loom

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Amidst economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s recent decision to devalue the naira offers a glimmer of hope for the country’s non-oil export sector in the upcoming third quarter. 

The Central Bank’s decision to float the naira on June 14 aims to bridge the gap between official and unofficial exchange rates, ultimately incentivizing exports.

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, anticipates an upturn in non-oil export values for Q3, emphasizing that currency depreciation traditionally boosts exports. A weaker naira translates to more naira earned per unit of export, enticing exporters.

However, experts caution that the improvement may be modest due to lingering production and trade bottlenecks.

Tajudeen Ibrahim, Director of Research and Strategy at ChapelHill Denham, acknowledges these challenges, pointing out that while a weaker naira makes exports more profitable, production volume remains an issue.

One significant bottleneck is the worsening insecurity, crippling agricultural production in Nigeria. Farmers face displacement, loss of life, and destruction of crops and livestock, severely impacting food security and economic growth.

Ibrahim highlights the security risks, stating, “In the farming/agriculture space, there is insecurity. That insecurity in itself is a major risk in increasing the volume of output for farmers to export.”

Despite these hurdles, Nigeria’s non-oil exports saw a 5.6 percent growth between Q1 and Q2 in 2023, reaching N688.68 billion in Q2.

Experts remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing that a weaker currency should encourage more exports, even as challenges persist.

At the close of the second quarter, the naira had depreciated by 64 percent, falling to N763.00/$1 from N464.50 per dollar on June 1st. While uncertainty prevails, the promise of a revitalized non-oil export sector offers a glimmer of economic hope for Nigeria.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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Emefiele Trial: Witness Details Alleged Extortion by CBN Director Over $400,000

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In the ongoing trial of Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant revelation emerged as Victor Onyejiuwa, managing director of The Source Computers Limited, took the stand as the fourth witness.

His testimony shed light on alleged extortion involving a substantial sum of $400,000.

Onyejiuwa recounted his company’s involvement with the CBN from 2014 to 2019, providing technology support and securing multiple contracts, including one for enterprise storage and servers in 2017.

However, post-execution of the contract, he faced pressure from John Ikechukwu Ayoh, a former CBN director, regarding the release of funds.

According to Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Ayoh approached him, indicating that CBN management required a portion of the contract’s funds.

He alleged that Ayoh threatened to withhold payment approval if his demands were not met. Feeling coerced, Onyejiuwa acceded to Ayoh’s request after several discussions.

To ensure the contract’s payment, Onyejiuwa revealed that he organized the sum of $400,000 along with an additional $200,000, yielding a total of $600,000.

This payment, made within two to three weeks, facilitated the release of funds for the contract.

During his testimony, Onyejiuwa disclosed contract amounts, including a significant $1.2 billion contract, along with others valued at $2.1 million, N340,000, and N17 million.

These revelations provide insight into the alleged irregularities surrounding contract payments at the CBN.

Following Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Emefiele’s legal counsel requested an adjournment for cross-examination at the next hearing, which was granted by Justice Rahman Oshodi. The trial is set to resume on May 17.

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IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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