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Nigerian States’ Bilateral Borrowing Soars by 64.26% as Naira’s Value Drops

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

Bilateral borrowing of Nigerian States climbed by 64.26% in just six months amid the decline in the Nigeran naira value.

This surge, totaling a significant $462.81 million, has raised eyebrows as it coincides with the continuous depreciation of the national currency, the naira.

Despite the economic challenges posed by the falling naira, state governments across Nigeria seem undeterred in their pursuit of much-needed funds. Loans have been secured from various international sources, including China, India, France, and other countries, demonstrating their resourcefulness and commitment to development.

The naira’s decline in value has made dollar-denominated loans more expensive, making the decision to seek bilateral loans an even bolder move.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive to remove the rate cap on the naira at the official Investors and Exporters’ Window of the foreign exchange market in June 2023 exacerbated the situation.

Consequently, the naira’s exchange rate plunged from 471/$ to 750/$ by the end of June 2023 and has continued its downward trajectory.

This increasing reliance on bilateral loans indicates a growing appetite among state governors for this type of financing. Data from the Debt Management Office reveals that 23 states have significantly ramped up their borrowing from a variety of international lenders, including China’s Exim Bank, India, France’s Agence Francaise Development, Japan International Cooperation Agency, and Germany’s Kreditanstalt Fur Wiederaufbua.

France’s Agence Francaise Development (AFD) remains a significant contributor to these bilateral loans, with debts to France surging by 21.84% to reach $306.32 million as of the end of June.

Also, loans from China, India, and other sources have experienced a staggering 415.79% increase, amounting to $156.49 million as of June 2023.

As we delve deeper into the specifics, it becomes evident that various states have taken diverse approaches to meet their financing needs. Some states, such as Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Sokoto, maintained their bilateral loan profiles at $3.82 million. Others, like Cross River and Ebonyi, witnessed changes in their borrowing trends.

In the midst of this financial landscape, it’s important to note that in 2018, Nigeria secured a substantial $475 million loan from France to fund development projects in Kano, Lagos, and Ogun states. The agreement, signed by then Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, and the Chief Executive Officer of Agence Francaise Development, Mr. Rey Rioux, included allocations for critical projects such as transportation, land degradation, and water infrastructure.

The Nigerian states’ bold move to secure bilateral loans reflects their determination to drive development and economic growth, even in the face of currency challenges. This trend will undoubtedly shape the financial landscape and raise questions about the sustainability of such borrowing in the long run.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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Emefiele Trial: Witness Details Alleged Extortion by CBN Director Over $400,000

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In the ongoing trial of Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant revelation emerged as Victor Onyejiuwa, managing director of The Source Computers Limited, took the stand as the fourth witness.

His testimony shed light on alleged extortion involving a substantial sum of $400,000.

Onyejiuwa recounted his company’s involvement with the CBN from 2014 to 2019, providing technology support and securing multiple contracts, including one for enterprise storage and servers in 2017.

However, post-execution of the contract, he faced pressure from John Ikechukwu Ayoh, a former CBN director, regarding the release of funds.

According to Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Ayoh approached him, indicating that CBN management required a portion of the contract’s funds.

He alleged that Ayoh threatened to withhold payment approval if his demands were not met. Feeling coerced, Onyejiuwa acceded to Ayoh’s request after several discussions.

To ensure the contract’s payment, Onyejiuwa revealed that he organized the sum of $400,000 along with an additional $200,000, yielding a total of $600,000.

This payment, made within two to three weeks, facilitated the release of funds for the contract.

During his testimony, Onyejiuwa disclosed contract amounts, including a significant $1.2 billion contract, along with others valued at $2.1 million, N340,000, and N17 million.

These revelations provide insight into the alleged irregularities surrounding contract payments at the CBN.

Following Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Emefiele’s legal counsel requested an adjournment for cross-examination at the next hearing, which was granted by Justice Rahman Oshodi. The trial is set to resume on May 17.

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Loans

IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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IMF global - Investors King

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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