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Nigeria’s Diaspora Remittances: A Tale of Emigration, Policy and Technology

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Money Transfer - Investors King

With $20.1 billion in remittances in 2021, Nigeria was the second-highest recipient in Africa, trailing only Egypt ($28.3 billion). Although Egypt and Nigeria received over half of all remittances to Africa, the rise in inflows into Egypt remained robust, at double digits (16%), while growth in Nigeria slowed to 3%.

Remittances have proven to be positively correlated with the income of immigrants and economic conditions in the sending countries. The slow economic recovery and cost of living crises that confronted many developed economies in 2022 were indicative of this trend and constrained remittance flows into Nigeria.

This was further exacerbated by the implementation of capital controls and other unpopular policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which restricted inflows through official channels.

Remittances from the diaspora have played an increasingly essential role in Nigeria’s economy, serving as an important source of foreign exchange earnings and a catalyst for economic growth and development. As more Nigerians, discouraged by the country’s gloomy economic conditions, look overseas for opportunity, their remittances will continue to play, a crucial role in sustaining the Nigerian economy.

The growth of these funds has been exceptional, empowering dependents to meet their basic needs, pursue education, access healthcare, and embark on entrepreneurial endeavours.

Mass Emigration (Japa Wave) – A double-edged sword

Nigeria has been dealing with the challenge of emigration and brain drain for decades as a result of the rising number of people fleeing in search of greener pastures amid the country’s dim economic prospects. This growing trend in emigration has been informally tagged “Japa” – a Yoruba word that translates to “flee or run away”.

As more countries, particularly highly sought-after destinations, have become more welcoming of immigrants as a result of the global labour shortage experienced post-COVID-19, there are now more opportunities than ever for migrants seeking employment in environments with improved economic and living conditions.

However, this widespread exodus has left many businesses severely understaffed, which has stunted the expansion of a variety of industries and lowered tax revenues for the government. Nonetheless, remittances from the diaspora provide foreign exchange and capital injections to stimulate economic activity.

Remittances are also often utilised to support the livelihoods of dependents back home. Agusto & Co. believes that the surge in emigration witnessed in 2022 is yet to translate to a commensurate rise in remittances as the majority of the emigrants are students who will not be able to fully join the labour force in their host countries until mid-2023.

Increased Channels of Remitting Funds – Surge in Money Transfer Operators (MTO)

In recent years, the rapidly growing global adoption of mobile devices has driven the use of digital technology in remittance services and cross-border payments. COVID-induced movement restrictions have significantly amplified the utilisation of digital money transfer channels. It is estimated that in 2021, following lockdowns and border closures across the world, mobile phone payments spiked by 48%.

Furthermore, there has been a shift to Fintech MTOs, which provide users with a faster, more convenient, and cost-effective remittance experience. Traditional MTOs have begun to adjust to the new normal by building a hybrid structure. Agusto & Co. believes that this structure gives businesses an advantage by allowing them to benefit from the dependability and convenience of physical locations as well as the accessibility of digital solutions by having both a digital presence and a real address.  

Outlook

Nigeria’s emigrant base is currently skewed towards the economically productive middle-class demographic, which is positive for remittances and underpins the need to devise strategies targeted at this age group to ensure the sustainability of remittances. However, given the significant contribution of students to the emigrating population, Agusto & Co. expects a surge in remittance inflows in the medium term. 

In June 2023, the CBN liberalised the foreign exchange regime, doing away with market segmentation, collapsing all the segments into a single exchange rate window – Investors and Exporters (I & E) Window – and adopted a managed floating exchange rate regime.

We believe that the unification of exchange rates would also incentivise remittance inflows through official channels, particularly for investment purposes, as it is likely to improve the FX liquidity position, which would facilitate the repatriation of funds. Therefore, Agusto & Co. expects remittance flows into Nigeria to rise to about $26 billion by 2025.

This will be supported by improved economic conditions in advanced economies. Given Nigeria’s high poverty rate, which increases reliance on foreign aid, Agusto & Co. also anticipates that the need to finance the basic requirements of dependents to remain the most important element driving remittances in the near to medium term. 

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Loans

IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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IMF global - Investors King

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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Banking Sector

Access Holdings Plc Grants 23.81 Million Shares to Directors, Valued at N420 Million

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Access bank

Access Holdings Plc, a leading financial institution, has recently vested approximately 23.81 million shares valued at over N420 million to its directors.

The share vesting process, a common practice in corporate governance, allows employees, investors, or co-founders to gradually receive full ownership rights to shares or stock options over a specified period.

In this instance, Access Holdings Plc has chosen to reward its directors with shares, signifying confidence in their leadership and contributions to the company’s growth trajectory.

Among the beneficiaries of this share allocation are key figures within Access Bank, a subsidiary of Access Holdings Plc, as well as the acting Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO).

Recipients include Sunday Okwochi, the company secretary, who received 1.2 million shares at N17.95 per share, and Hadiza Ambursa, a director of Access Bank, who was allocated 1.72 million shares at the same price.

Other directors, such as Gregory Jobome, Chizoma Okoli, Iyabo Soji-Okusanya, Seyi Kumapayi, and Roosevelt Ogbonna, also received allocations ranging from 1.234 million to 12.345 million shares, each valued between N17.85 and N17.95 per share.

Bolaji Agbede, the acting Group CEO of Access Holdings, was granted 2.216 million shares at N17.95 per share, further solidifying his stake in the company’s success.

This move by Access Holdings Plc comes amidst a dynamic economic landscape, where organizations are strategically positioning themselves to navigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

By incentivizing its directors through share vesting, the company aims to foster a sense of ownership and accountability while motivating top talent to drive innovation and sustainable growth.

The share vesting scheme not only rewards directors for their past contributions but also incentivizes them to remain committed to the company’s long-term vision.

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Loans

Ghana’s $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Hangs in the Balance Amid LGBTQ Legal Challenge

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Ghana's Parliament

Ghana’s Supreme Court is set to commence hearings on a case that threatens the country’s $20 billion debt restructuring deal while simultaneously testing the World Bank’s commitment to LGBTQ rights support.

At the heart of the legal battle is a challenge to legislation that seeks to criminalize LGBTQ identities in Ghana.

The contentious law not only proposes severe penalties for individuals identifying as LGBTQ but also threatens punishment for those who fail to report individuals to the authorities, including family members, co-workers, and teachers.

If the Supreme Court upholds the legislation, Ghana risks not only perpetuating discrimination but also jeopardizing crucial financial support from international institutions, including the World Bank.

The implications extend beyond Ghana’s borders, potentially setting a precedent for how the World Bank engages with issues of LGBTQ rights and human rights more broadly across the globe.

The stakes are high for Ghana’s economy, which has been grappling with a heavy debt burden. The leaked memo from the finance ministry in April warned that endorsing the legislation could endanger approximately $3.8 billion of World Bank funding over the next five to six years.

Furthermore, it could derail a $3 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and hamper efforts to restructure the country’s $20 billion of external liabilities.

The legal challenge comes amidst a broader debate about the balance between national sovereignty, international lending standards, and human rights. The World Bank, a significant source of development finance for Ghana, finds itself caught in a delicate position.

While it has historically emphasized non-discrimination and social standards in its lending practices, it also faces pressure to respect the sovereignty of the countries it engages with.

Ghana’s debt restructuring and economic recovery efforts hinge on continued support from international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.

However, the outcome of the Supreme Court case could complicate these efforts, potentially leading to a withdrawal of financial assistance and further economic instability.

The situation underscores the complexities of navigating the intersection of economic development, human rights, and national sovereignty.

As Ghana’s Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the LGBTQ legislation, the outcome of the case remains uncertain, leaving both advocates for LGBTQ rights and supporters of Ghana’s debt restructuring deal anxiously awaiting a decision that could shape the country’s future trajectory.

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