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Ghana’s Soaring Public Debt Raises Concerns as IMF Bailout Aims to Stabilize Economy

Short-term Central Bank Loans and Debt Restructuring Add to Mounting Fiscal Pressures

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Ghana one cedi - Investors King

Ghana’s public debt has seen a staggering 20% increase in a mere four months, largely attributed to the inclusion of short-term loans provided by the central bank to the state.

The Bank of Ghana revealed that the debt, which does not incorporate state-owned enterprises obligations, surged to a whopping 569.3 billion cedis ($49.7 billion) by the end of April.

This surge came after the central bank’s overdraft to the government was securitized in December 2022, adjusting the debt figure from a previous estimate of 434.6 billion cedis to 473.2 billion cedis.

Although Ghana’s obligations as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased to 71.1% in April from 77.5% in December, concerns over the sustainability of the nation’s debt remain at the forefront of economic discussions.

Ghana’s economic challenges have been further compounded by its eurobond default earlier this year. Seeking to stabilize the economy and mitigate the debt burden, the country initiated a debt restructuring plan in line with a $3 billion bailout program approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May.

In an effort to make its debt more manageable, Ghana completed the first phase of a domestic debt exchange in February, allowing investors to exchange 87.8 billion cedis in obligations for new securities with lower interest rates.

This move is expected to provide some relief, especially considering that the average interest rate on the new notes dropped to as low as 8.35%, compared to the previous 19% on the old notes.

As the country continues its restructuring efforts, investors are bracing for reduced coupons on $1.5 billion worth of domestic dollar bonds and cocoa bills. Also, ongoing discussions are being held with local pension funds, bilateral partners, and eurobond holders to renegotiate and reorganize the country’s obligations.

Ghana external debt has increased to 321.4 billion cedis at the end of April from 240.9 billion cedis in December, while domestic debt rose to 247.9 billion cedis from 232.3 billion cedis over the same period.

On a positive note, Ghana’s budget deficit in the first five months of the year has significantly improved, dropping to 1.8% of GDP from 4.2% compared to the same period the previous year. The primary balance also saw an improvement, narrowing to a deficit of 0.7% of GDP from a 1.2% deficit.

However, the country faces challenges in its banking sector, as non-performing loans rose to 18.7% in June from 14.1% a year ago, leading to a drop in the capital adequacy ratio to 14.3% from 19.4%.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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Ghana’s $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Hangs in the Balance Amid LGBTQ Legal Challenge

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Ghana's Parliament

Ghana’s Supreme Court is set to commence hearings on a case that threatens the country’s $20 billion debt restructuring deal while simultaneously testing the World Bank’s commitment to LGBTQ rights support.

At the heart of the legal battle is a challenge to legislation that seeks to criminalize LGBTQ identities in Ghana.

The contentious law not only proposes severe penalties for individuals identifying as LGBTQ but also threatens punishment for those who fail to report individuals to the authorities, including family members, co-workers, and teachers.

If the Supreme Court upholds the legislation, Ghana risks not only perpetuating discrimination but also jeopardizing crucial financial support from international institutions, including the World Bank.

The implications extend beyond Ghana’s borders, potentially setting a precedent for how the World Bank engages with issues of LGBTQ rights and human rights more broadly across the globe.

The stakes are high for Ghana’s economy, which has been grappling with a heavy debt burden. The leaked memo from the finance ministry in April warned that endorsing the legislation could endanger approximately $3.8 billion of World Bank funding over the next five to six years.

Furthermore, it could derail a $3 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and hamper efforts to restructure the country’s $20 billion of external liabilities.

The legal challenge comes amidst a broader debate about the balance between national sovereignty, international lending standards, and human rights. The World Bank, a significant source of development finance for Ghana, finds itself caught in a delicate position.

While it has historically emphasized non-discrimination and social standards in its lending practices, it also faces pressure to respect the sovereignty of the countries it engages with.

Ghana’s debt restructuring and economic recovery efforts hinge on continued support from international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.

However, the outcome of the Supreme Court case could complicate these efforts, potentially leading to a withdrawal of financial assistance and further economic instability.

The situation underscores the complexities of navigating the intersection of economic development, human rights, and national sovereignty.

As Ghana’s Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the LGBTQ legislation, the outcome of the case remains uncertain, leaving both advocates for LGBTQ rights and supporters of Ghana’s debt restructuring deal anxiously awaiting a decision that could shape the country’s future trajectory.

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